Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

RWS on track so far. Comparatives are very weak so shouldn't be too hard to squeeze out a couple of pps of LFL could it?

If they deliver they are on track for an ongoing 20%+ FCF yield. R Griffiths still buying it seems, taking a big conviction bet on this.

The CEO has good energy here, looking forward to the next update

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/rws-holdings--rws/agm-statement/9424682

Sell first ask questions later… this is what happens when everyone is an unthinking passive momentum trader…

The latest selloff erupted on Tuesday when a tax-strategy tool rolled out by a little-known startup, Altruist Corp., sent shares of Charles Schwab Corp., Raymond James Financial Inc. and LPL Financial Holdings Inc. down by 7% or more. The losses extended to Europe on the following day, with wealth management firms like AJ Bell Plc, Julius Baer Group Ltd. and St James’s Place Plc also declining.

Results coming in a little softer than expected. But sentiment was so bombed out this has triggered a relief rally. That was my own reaction, I bought a few at 187 this morning. The delay in releasing the update looks to be related to finalising the acquisition.

These weak comparatives combined with the full year impact of 2026 rollouts and price increases, further improvement in BA margin, hopefully some stability in international sales and this acquisition means the growth profile for the next couple of years seems to be fleshing out again niceley.

Expected EPS for 2026/27 is currently 21/23p, meaning a forward PE of 10/9 cheap by historic standards. Paying out 50% in dividends gives you a yield 5%+

The main risk here seems to be further weakness in consumer spend, particularly the lower end of the income band where W7 operate, and the impact on those new rollouts. Christmas this year was patchy and W7 were increasing prices into Q4. The US was flagged in the last update, I’m not sure how much worse that could get, it was a small revenue contribution but probably higher margin like the US always seems to be. It looks like Bodycare was bought out and is going to reopen up to 50 stores later this year so that could be some upside

Given shorts and generally persistently poor sentiment towards AIM even a slight miss and weakening outlook could be nasty. Saying that, an outlook with a few percent revenue growth could send it back over 250p. Consensus is for a lift in sales from £109m in 2026 to £117m in 2027 and a 10% lift in EBITDA.

The board expects revenues of between £107 million and £112 million, and adjusted EBITDA of between £23.5 million and £25.5 million for the full year 2025.

If the annalised impact of all the revenue wins is $47m with say 50% of starts by 2027 and the remainder in 2028 then revenue could be as high as $160m in 2029. That is excluding project churn and losses. That is a pretty serious growth profile and means a stupidly cheap valuation which, if delivered, will be well rewarded.

However investor relations needs to sharpen up their pencils a little and fill in some blanks like what is existing project churn, capex requirements etc before the market can work out the future cash and net debt profile and cashes in. Given the positive outlook maybe the company could introduce a capital management policy, some for a buyback to help clear the Otus shares and perhaps a small dividend?

Brings the total issued shares assuming all approvals at around 800m, giving Mcap of £9.0m and cash runway of £4.7m.

If demand was so strong for more shares why did they have to issue them at a 47% discount?

No surprise on demand, good for you if you can get them

RWS been getting pummelled by the same AI fears as RELX. A weakening US dollar, and Richard Griffiths probably finishing buying isn't helping

Combined with the dire UK plc market sentiment and ex dividend RWS not standing a chance right now.

Market simply isn't interested right now in cash flow, or low debt 3x EBITDA businesses.

You basically have to buy a semi conductor ETF to hedge against these falls. 20 odd companies are sucking the life out of the rest of the market.

Saying that I was quite impressed by the last presentation Ben Faes did and was well convinced that RWS would be the leader in AI translation. The AGM is next week, last year it came with a trading statement so I hope they can step up with some growth and prove them wrong

No clarification on CFO exit and no formal trading update…doesn't bode well

I agree on the beaten down mutts. After they bottom out they can turbo charge the portfolio.

Reminds me of McBride (MCB), bottomed out at 17p in July 2022 and is now 150p. MCG not as debt stressed so upside not the same but as the basket of unprofitable contracts are dropped or renegotiated over the next few years we should see cash flows improve. But it relies on management knowing what they are doing and will take several years

So only 2 contracts were renegotiated in line wth 'industry norms', so 5-6% margin on costs, and will be extended by 2 years to 2032. I suppose at least now with these lines we will not take the hit on network disruptions and have 6 years of stability. But that leaves 5 contracts which were shortened and we are still bearing revenue risk until 2030, when they will be retendered and MAY be profitable from 2030, possibly managed by someone else. Why were they not renegotiated along the same lines?

Does anyone know what percentage of revenue would now be profitable going forward?

Prices at pre discussion were Rio 6250p and Glen 410p. Add a 15% premium and that gives a merger ratio of 13x. Using the current Rio price that implies an offer of about 530p. The Rio board will struggle to agree a merger premium over 15%, they could maybe push 20% and that would get to 550p. But then they would be basing that on a day when copper rose by 8% and over 20% in a month and the Glencore traders will be licking their lips. Rio would really need to adjust their risk profile and increase the merger premium, maybe with a cash sweetener, to an uncomfortable level to get a deal done. I don't think that is in their nature but I hope I'm proved wrong!

Saying that all it can take is a piece of news and this can be up 20% in a day and 50% in a week.

Sometimes I have held and been right, but many I have lost patience with and moved on but then missed out.

Deep value requires deep patience

On paper cheap yes. I don't think the CFO was really a key member of management to warrant a 15% drop. Share price reaction is suggesting deeper issues

Looks like Otus continuing to sell as well, not a good look when a cornerstone investor is desperately offloading shares at rock bottom

They will probably need to do a small buyback, new contracts should be kicking in, capex tapering and net debt manageable at

CFO leaving was not the update that was expected. I wonder what happened and if we will ever know.

On the plus side net debt was a little lower than expected and they have met expectations.

MCap now below £20m for a business with close to $20m in EBITDA

Anyone buying?

Offer price is a little disappointing. Probably worth waiting for a week or two for a counteroffer now that this is in play and SP only 1% below the offer.

The negative sentiment that is being perpetuated around the UK market is allowing PE to cherry pick assets, take it or leave it

If they can hit 20koz for Q2 then it will be a fantastic quarter. In Q1 they bought 3rd party material, and grades and recoveries were much higher than normal. It will be very interesting to see if any of those plant improvements flow through to sustainable recovery improvements. The weather in northern SA has been exceptionally bad this year, its always a risk to Q2.

General optimism pretty low out there, good to see some green today

Its a relief to see the growth rates continue and they are sticking to margin targets. It does seem very good value, despite margins falling this year and next

Business looks particularly strong

Tempted for a small top up

I don't think any holders would sell below the IPO price, especially Simon.

It's either walk away or grit your teeth and be patient for now. If they can deliver on the growth profile they have promised and string a few sets of results together it will come good for sure

The company is in very good shape, despite all the headwinds, and is extremely cheap, even by single digit automotive standards.

The SP has a lot of potential, it doubled in 1 month on results in May 2025. It could easily do that again especially with some more positive contract and outlook news

However a lot depends on Otus, it looks like they started selling in May 2025 from 18% to 9.5% now. So could be another 6-9 months if they want to offload all of them.

Price now back to the IPO level from July 2021…what a dismal failure. Down 10% 2 weeks into 2026 alone. Im surprised shorts haven't started sniffing around giving the negative momentum and sentiment. Pretty much straight down since Sept 2025, I wonder what will turn this around?

Wise is a cash generating machine, I’m sure it will come good and in 5 years time will be significantly higher than today, but it seems the market is finding the 26/27 reduction in profit a bit hard to swallow in the short term