RE: Amendment26 Nov 2025 07:35
Consilium
I get that you don’t trust AI, but perhaps it’s time you dusted off those old Almanacs and caught up with how the sector actually works today.
A basic Google search for “regarding oil exploration what does 50¢ in the ground refer to” will tell you—clearly—that the rule of thumb applies to P50 / 2P reserves. Every AI model (Gemini, ChatGPT etc.) gives the same answer. None of them suggest it applies to P10. Anyone can verify this for themselves in seconds.
Your supposed “expertise” in O&G is way off the mark. Nobody is claiming you can “get 2P reserves for 50¢ per boe” straight out of the ground. The point is simple: that’s roughly what a proper oil producer might pay for a developed, appraised asset—not a fantasy-land P10 number.
To get to 2P, the reservoir has to be proven, and you don’t get there with a token one-hole wonder. If 80M try to go the distance to 2P, they’ll be diluted into oblivion—Pelican and RP know this full well. The free carry for two holes is a loss leader, nothing more. JL at “30% for 80M” is a pipe dream.
If either well actually comes in, 80M will almost certainly sell out long before 2P territory—because a single discovery hole is nowhere near 2P. It’s the starting line, not the finish. And what does a producer pay for one lucky hole? Spoiler: maybe nothing, but cetainly not 50¢/boe, not close, and certainly not what some posters here are fantasising about.
So should I trust your mysterious “friends in the sector”, or Google, AI, and actual industry norms?
No prizes for the correct answer.