Member Info for Rabidfly

Smacks of letting a couple of HNW mates in at a silly price, opportune and somewhat strange .

like care and maintenance for this woeful company. At least you have it in b and w that the pods just are not cable of doing the requisite dewatering. So where do they go from here - money needed in a dire market it just doesn't look good.

this has held up reasonably well considering their manufacturing factory is located near Milan in Northern Italy.

https://twitter.com/DonPabby_93/status/1233085080437956609

over £2m end of June 2019 now down to less than £400k. That is some burn and funds must be looming. Wages up by £146K, marketing up by £642k. Need to get some control over their finances.

from a poorly worded email. Total nonsense it merely confirms discussions are starting (and subject to necessary approvals - what ever they are), could be any timeline that suites BG. The elephant in the room are the flow rates and everyone, including BG are waiting before any commitment. This company is unravelling - funding coming like an express train. Over to you TG

'we have agreed to get into discussions for a temporary Power Purchase Agreement that would enable your organization to provide power on a pilot/proof of concept approach while negotiations for the full PPA are ongoing.

Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) has been charged with the responsibility of driving the discussion and signing an agreement with your company, subject to the necessary approvals in the BPC structures.'

Although secured against the returnable bank guarantee where does it state this doesn't stop them converting the remainder at any time they wish?

3.25 new all time low? more to follow. Feels very uncomfortable being a TLOU shareholder, not much 'wriggle room' for TG here. All the positive reassuring podcasts have laboured and fallen on fallow ground. Are the pods commercial or not is the question. Tony/ Tony??? , GG ?? anyone? My opinion - one pod is a dud the other is ok but they are very short of the required determination for commercial flows. See the the rns of 20/1 viz
The Lesedi 3 and 4 pods are producing water in isolation which makes dewatering a slower and more difficult exercise than would otherwise be the case in a full field development. In a field development scenario, an array of wells would be located adjacent to each other which would serve to facilitate dewatering.

So they realise they need more wells/pods but are stuck because of a/ their previous rhetoric and b/ FUNDS.

Over to you AG! Tick tock

The very fact the company will not or can not give any figures since the August RNS (6 months ago) speaks volumes about how poor the flows are. This is turning into a prize plum of a share. Fundraising in the not too distant future, be better if they got the raise done sooner, before the SP continues its downward spiral. As for GG he has achieved very little to justify his remuneration.

No surprise whatsoever - been running on fumes for months on promises of asset sale, which never materialized.

Nothing new in that Podcast - Tony looked happy though. So what comes first - the placing or news on commercial gas. The former me thinks.

'Liquid resources

At 31 December 2019, the Company had total unaudited liquid resources (cash and diamonds on hand to be sold in the January tender valued at cost) of approximately £763,000 (31 December 2018: £359,000). '

Hmmm, so how much of that is diamonds to be sold. Cash is diminishing here - had over £1m end of June. STep up in production will cost. Smell a raise.

'To achieve increased gas saturation is not a simple process and requires careful management of pressure levels within the wells noting that the each of the Lesedi 3 and 4 production pods consist of three wells - one vertical production well and two intersecting lateral wells. ' This is harder than we thought.

'The Lesedi 3 and 4 pods are producing water in isolation which makes dewatering a slower and more difficult exercise than would otherwise be the case in a full field development. In a field development scenario, an array of wells would be located adjacent to each other which would serve to facilitate dewatering.' We wish we had a lot more pods as this is taking forever and we really don't know what else we can do.

NB TG will not wait till founds are exhausted - a raise will come far sooner. This looks like a total mess, time will tell.

'Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down with periodic short-term rates observed which have been much higher than those initially announced. ' So 5 months on and the rates are still yo yoing about - no figures given - why? Periodic - how long? much higher - how high?

'The Company will not be in a position to announce an increased rate until such time that higher levels are sustained and confirmed by our advisors. ' No timeline - they haven't got a clue when or if a sustained higher level will be achieved. Basically saying it will happen when kit happens - possibly, maybe.

'The Company is operating in a region where commercial CBM had not been produced before so there is no comparable data from this operating environment regarding how long it may take, or if it is even possible, for a commercial gas flow to be achieved. ' See previous note - they haven't got any inkling of a timeline or 'if it is even possible' - are they suggesting this may be a complete fail?

'However, based on information to date, the Company has no reason to believe that the targeted commercial gas flow rates will not be achieved noting that the Company is generally pleased with well performance to date. ' The phrase 'based on information to date' - so if the information changes don't say we didn't warn you. Use of the generally suggest they have been entirely happy with all the performance.

'As a junior exploration and development company, Tlou's funds are limited and therefore caution is being taken by the Company to try and ensure that the production wells are managed without risking damage to, or loss of, either production pod. This impacts the length of time taken to produce a commercial gas flow.' What does the first sentence actually mean, are they suggesting if they were awash with cash they would be staring over again but as they are constrained they are just hoping the pods will come good with a slow methodical approach. It is they are running short of dollar and there are inherent risks that the pods may fail.

'CBM gas production testing involves the extraction of water and gas from a coal seam. Typically, the water rate starts high and as this reduces, the gas rate increases. Since the Lesedi 3 and 4 pods have been in production, water rates have reduced with the aim of taking as much water as possible out of the underground coal seam reservoir. Once this is achieved, the coal is expected to be more gas saturated and therefore the gas flow rate should increase significantly. ' Typically - is this situation not typical? Water is still an underlaying problem with the seams. Expected - no guarantees.

Things not looking good here, infact the language is more cautious, are they preparing for problems with one or both pods?, cash dwindling. Snail slow to almost stop. Sure they will do some PR being gushing (unlike the pods) about prospects.
'Since the initial rate announcement, gas flow rates have continued to fluctuate both up and down with periodic short-term rates observed which have been much higher than those initially announced. The Company will not be in a position to announce an increased rate until such time that higher levels are sustained and confirmed by our advisors.

The Company is operating in a region where commercial CBM had not been produced before so there is no comparable data from this operating environment regarding how long it may take, or if it is even possible, for a commercial gas flow to be achieved. However, based on information to date, the Company has no reason to believe that the targeted commercial gas flow rates will not be achieved noting that the Company is generally pleased with well performance to date.

As a junior exploration and development company, Tlou's funds are limited and therefore caution is being taken by the Company to try and ensure that the production wells are managed without risking damage to, or loss of, either production pod.'

cant wait to see how they dress the same drivel up with a blend of new words that say, well er exactly the same as the past 12 months. The longest de watering process known to man! Just cut and paste bits form the past few updates, no one will know.

Just hot air?

drop to follow here

*Anomaly

Can see this stock drifting heavily over the coming months as little or no news will be forthcoming. Then there will be a raise next year to continue the nonsense. The little bounce today from earlier lows will not be maintained. There is simply nothing occurring anytime soon. Yes we can all theorise and elaborate on CBM and the intricacies of the procedure, but the company can't or should I say won't say what current flow rates are since the early August update. The only realistic reason for this adnominally is that the are woeful. The science lesson on de watering is buying time. These wells have been prepared since March 2019! The timelines the company have quoted are, by there own admission redundant. There is a whiff of unease in the RNS that suggests the company really does not know how this is going to play out. I would suggest a thin veneer of hubris has been woven into this mornings rambling RNS. Caveat emptor most certainly applicable with this company.