Interpretation of Admissions Document from Hydrogen12 Sep 2024 09:04
ok it’s taken a bit of time to spin through the admission documents and i still have to read it in detail
this is my take on what’s next at ggp …. i said in my last post that whatever shaun day said next was key. the admission document talks to a 2.8mt 'base case' scenario. but i think thats going to be totally superseded, and possibly within weeks.
the admission document makes it pretty obvious ggp will produce 300-400koz in 2024/25 from telfer ( as detailed ) . basically ggp is a significant “instant” producer - in fact a top 5 gold producer in australia (as of today). most probably even in the gdx at next rebalance. day i think has blown the doors off… anticipating a delay to first gold at havieron - yes, the placing price was ****e for lth but it doesn’t really matter now as we will rerate as a producer. we have a new plant, fully refurbed at telfer. a circa $200m ore stockpile, and a fully operational mine knocking out some 350koz to 400koz a year, in a rocketing gold price environment, with very low asic (at least for the first year togive day time to get a handle on telfer fixed costs). day has actually played a blinder here. $200+ million in revenue are just sat in stock piles on the rom pad ready to put through a restarted mill… ggp has just brought forward first gold by 2 years given the delays at havieron …
but there’s more - confirmed in this paragraph: in the admission doc: part 3, 2.4 - page 61 2.4
“optimisation opportunities the company considers there to be significant opportunities to optimise the development of havieron following acquisition completion. a key opportunity to be assessed by the company is expansion of the havieron mining rate by utilising a bulk ore handling solution. the greatland base case is for a 2.8mtpa mining throughput from havieron, which is constrained by the planned single decline. with the existing telfer infrastructure already in place and approximately 50% surplus processing capacity in the proposed single processing train, a materially increased havieron mining rate has the potential to be highly value accretive. the greatland feasibility study for havieron is targeted to be completed by the company within 12 months after acquisition completion, and will incorporate optimisation opportunities to the extent these are identified and validated.”
that tells me, no confirms they are 100% adding a haul shaft or a conveyor decline to an all new dfs (i always said 6mt dfs would come and this is proof) which will increase mine output to 6/7/8mt but also totally transform the economics of havieron. eg 8 mt at 3g/t is 655-700koz of gold plus whatever we can keep pulling out of telfer which could contunie for 5-10 years: ggp could be a 900koz producer by 2028
so, when that dfs finally lands (and this is the reason it’s been delayed)….. it will shock the market, i think. it’s all there in the admission document… you have your chance today to get in
make no mist