Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
I'm sure something this obvious wouldn't have escaped Marrku's attention.
He's already had the 'worst day if his life ' when the Phase 3 results came out - I can't believe he would put Traumakine forward in such high profile trials and risk a repeat if he thought this was an issue.
Just saw this. Looks like similar content to the article a couple of days ago.
https://www.arvopaperi.fi/uutiset/faron-pharmaceuticalsin-markku-jalkasella-on-jo-saatio-mahdollisia-miljoonia-varten-jos-onnistumme-syopakin-voi-olla-vain-krooninen-sairaus/e93bbe50-1a3a-4239-89f4-fd748229ac72
Faron are playing this very low key.
My suspicion is that they know this will work but at the moment they can’t manufacture Traumakine at volume so the last thing they need is speculation and volatility in the Covid crowd.
Once they have a path through the manufacturing issue (which would require RNS) they could probably be a bit more pushy with the PR.
But we have to remember that Traumakine is far more than just a Covid treatment. In our context Covid is really just an additional demand for a long term ARDS treatment (with a short term spike that we may or may not have the manufacturing capability to supply). So I'm not surprised they are playing it cool at the moment.
If there is positive trial news explicitly linked to Traumakine / Faron (rather than just Interferon beta-1a) then the AIM herd will arrive anyway and things will change dramatically! At that point they won't need PR - they'll have to manage expectations around manufacturing capacity (if they haven't sorted it by then - we know they are working on it!).
All speculation on my part of course.
Drac - Interferon Beta-1a is the only interferon involved in Solidarity, however we believe Merck are also supplying it in the form of Rebif.
But there is a critical difference: Traumakine is administered intravenously, Rebif isn’t.
I believe the WHO press conference will be live-streamed on their website at 5pm (Guessing that’s CET?)
www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
Clevegen is still the main focus in the AGM presentation.
Traumakine is still presented as ‘upside from legacy programme’ in the fifth bullet out of five in the investment highlights.
They are certainly playing the Covid opportunity low key!
My interpretation is that Markku is playing the long game and sees Covid as an opportunity to accelerate the programme rather than it becoming the main focus.
Still no more on Traumakine manufacturing other than it being on the list of future steps. If they can’t manufacture at scale in time for Covid it will obviously limit the direct opportunity, but it would make the arbitration with Rentschler rather tasty! I think we win both ways.
To my knowledge WHO have not been specific about method of administration of IB1A in Solidarity.
Merck manufacture Rebif at volume. Rebif is also IB1A but is not IV.
So maybe they are testing them both out to see relative efficacy. It would make sense if our supply isn’t easily scalable.
I wish we knew more about plans for Traumakine manufacturing.
2,000 treatments sounds a lot but it may not go far across so many countries and hospitals unless we’re sending them out individually. Is that why Merck may be supplying IB1A? And if so, in what form?
So many questions!
Haha - Agree with you gett about all the usual PI cliches being rubbish. It’s just supply and demand. Lots of hot money moving about at the moment, we’re lucky that we’re under the radar or volatility would be much worse.
Back on topic, I’ve noticed that the UK REMAP-CAP sites are gearing up. A few days ago there were a lot of sites with zero patients, now there are more sites and many more are off and running.
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Research/Studies/Remap-Cap/Information-For-Sites/Site-Recruitment
I expect the CFO would be covered. Even if he’s not on the main board he will be on the executive board / exec committee and would be assumed to be on the inside of anything price sensitive.
Restrictions on share dealings extend to anyone with unpublished price sensitive information.
Having said that, these windows can be short when there is a lot going on. News flow has been thick and fast recently so they’ve probably been looking for a safe gap of a few days - hence the FD purchase and the exercise of options in rapid succession.
I’m not reading much into it beyond this week - interim news (or a leak) from one of the Covid trials can be too far away now.
So the WHO comes out and says it looks like some (undisclosed) drugs are working and our FD buys some shares on the same day...
Probably coincidence, but it makes me wonder what data he can see. Almost certainly not any form of trial results but maybe demand for the 2,000 treatments is accelerating faster than he expected? FD should know stock, unless they just handed it all over in one go!
Pure conjecture of course.
Great that he’s buying now.
Probably confirms that any deal is waiting on further results as he wouldn’t be able to trade if something was imminent. But equally shows great confidence in what the results will bring... and there are plenty due!
Exactly right gett.
I’m looking through the current pandemic to the long term potential of:
1) Traumakine (ARDS is a major unmet need)
2) Clevegen (nearly 2m patients per year on just four of the cohorts in the expanded study - ‘one ring to rule them all’)
3) The secret weapon. Not in current corporate presentation but hidden at bottom of page 2 in Juho Jalkanen’s presentation on 04/02/20 is the following bullet point..... ‘2018 - onwards: Ground breaking discovery of the functionality of lymph node lymphatics leading to several targets to prevent cancer metastasis’. Sounds like a secret weapon to me.
Ok, the further down the list you go, the further we are from market and the more you would have to factor in the risks. But even so, add that lot up (applying whatever risk factors you like) and I’d say we’re somewhat undervalued!
Traumakine will only propel us (a long way but) so far.
Clevegen has the potential to be a true blockbuster and then Faron could play in the big league.
I know it’s a bit far fetched currently but the big guys have mcap of $100bn +. If Clevegen fulfils its potential and there really is a ‘secret weapon’ then Faron could get there.
Big ifs but the risk / reward is crazy at the moment. No chance we’d be valued at this level in the US IMO.
I was thinking along similar lines.
The key issue for me is that demand could go from zero to massive on a global scale in no time at all. Is one manufacturer enough or will they be ‘forced’ into other options?
There will be similar pressure on price to ensure accessibility, so I have no idea how they would put together a licensing deal to cover both short and long term opportunities. Maybe we don’t need one short term as demand will be ready made and WHO (?) could co-ordinate distribution. I don’t think Markku would want to be in the centre of a political row over which countries get what supply!
Nice problems to have, but not easy to guess the path through it. At least for me!
Any more enlightened views?
Great rambling Sax!
For me it was a different kind of luck. I was at an investor evening hoping to meet the management of another BioTech as I never go beyond a very low limit on these shares until I’ve done the usual research and met the team.
I’d never heard of Faron before that night. Listened to Markku, talked to him after, did the research and the rest is history.
I was lucky, my story starts a year ago. It’s now my biggest single investment by a mile. Normally I would sell down, but not on this one. I’m going to let it ride and see where it goes.
Agree Sax.
Markku wants to build a sustainable business, I don’t believe he’s in it to sell out this time.
Equally, he knows what they’re good at and I don’t think he will want to distract from that focus by either manufacturing or distributing their products.
So I think he’s after a partner for Traumakine and a single mega-deal for Clevegen.
There is now now cash for a year so he doesn’t have to take an early deal. He can play for big stakes and win.
We should just be patient and let him play the cards out.
Love the last paragraph in the proactive write-up.
Two, partial responders and seven cases of stable disease, and in patients with inoperable tumours.
This is out of 30, some of whom were on the really low dose so didn’t respond, and all had exhausted other treatment lines. Old news I know, but incredible really - that’s 9 saved lives - and great that Proactive are reminding people.
I’ve Only been invested for a year but I’ve been looking at the share price relative to where it was in early 2018...
Back then we were at 800 and almost all of that was due to Traumakine. The equivalent of 800 in today’s money is around 500 due to all the dilution since then, but significantly above where we are now.
But at the current level, you could argue that most of our share price is due to Clevegen as Traumakine is pretty much under the radar. That gives plenty of scope for re-rating even before news on any of the trials.
Positive results from REMAP-CAP and Solidarity and the ensuing partner deal will take us way higher, likely well over £1bn market cap imo. On its own that certainly qualifies us a sleeping giant right now.
But add in the vast potential of Clevegen... A market of nearly 2m treatments p.a. on just four of the cohorts in expanded MATINS, where IO treatment casts are in the £10s of thousands each....
If this all goes the way we hope/expect, Faron isn’t just a sleeping giant it’s a sleeping supernova!
Agree Zen - Also most of the value in the share price is in Clevegen currently. Why whip up a storm and short term volatility for Traumakine and risk that hard work when we’ll know the answer in a few weeks? If it doesn’t work out for C-19, we still have the FDA trial for broader ARDS.
It’s just not in our long term interest to be shouting right now IMO