Member Info for Py494

That's disappointing. Did they say why it couldn't be extended?

Brad, Appi, thanks for the examples (and caveats). Looks like a definite maybe then! Does seem like a win-win for Tlou and us LTHs.

TB - thanks for asking.
MrM - I think if TB gets no reply then yes, anyone that the offer is relevant to (must be a few of us on here) should write. I've found Tlou pretty good in the past, with 4 replies to 5 emails and usually within a couple of days, so let's see.

The shares options issued as part of the 2020 (IIRC) fund raise are due to expire in July this year.
As the company is way behind where it had hoped to be (not apportioning blame, but they are), would it be a fair move by Tlou to extend these options for, say, 12 or 18 months? In his last Proactive interview, Colm talked about 'repaying their (shareholders') faith', might this be a good will gesture towards doing just that?

By July 2023, we may be connected to the Botswana grid and possible generating revenue (leaving hydrogen/crypto aside), which would hopefully make A$0.04 a good deal. Anybody seen options extended before? Or know of any legal issues this might cause?

Appi, well remembered:

https://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/180605-Corporate-Presentation-Final.pdf

Slide 14 "~85% methane.".

That figure seems to be for Lesedi and Mamba combined so, as you say MrM, not only from Lesedi 3/4. But I could see that the composition of the gas could change as the flow rates change, so would a percentage at this stage be that reliable for when we start the PPA?

Would be good to hear Tlou's view on their gas flow requirements for the PPA. I guess they know what equipment they'll be using by now and could maybe extrapolate data from their onsite generation. In the next RNS please, if you are reading, chaps...

Appi - thanks for that, do you have the source? Given Brad's post about using CO2 to displace the methane, I'm curious as to what the other ~15% of the gas flow is.

HB - yep, sloppy terminology on my part there. When I say n MWh, I mean n MW generated for 24 hours, as I think that's what the 10MW PPA means, is that how you understand the agreement?

MrM - fair point. A quick look online suggests that gas from 'virgin' coal seams (rather than used mines) methane percentage is typically very high (90-95%) but agree it would be good to get a figure for Lesedi; it must be a factor in how much power we can produce.

DTE - as you said, the conversion figure depends massively on the efficiency of the conversion process. I've seen figures from 40% to 80% given for this. I think the 56Mcf to 16.14 is assuming 100% efficiency, so our MWh number would be much lower. And, as I understand it, our PPA is for 24 hours a day, so even at 16.14 MWh, at this point we are way under what we need for just a 1 MWh deal (plenty of time to go before we need it though).

Brad - last time I looked into gas flows I reckoned we needed approximately 158Mcf for a 1MWh deal. I can't say I'm confident in that figure though. Anyone else got a view?

Hi Brad, Ursula von der Leyen?

Brad, you worked in IT long enough to know that as the programmer it's your job to read my mind and it's mine to complain when it's not right ;)
Yes, I'm still in. Approaching 1m shares at an average of over 6p, I'm hoping to be here when the dividends start, or we get bought out (hopefully it's one of those two!). Whenever I re-evaluate it, the Tlou story is still a no-brainer, imo. I'm just weary of delay after delay, like I guess all of us LTHs are.
Py.

Hi Brad. Nope, that clue stumped me, although some of the ones you did get, did that too :)
Btw, it's a bit late but nice work on that comment counter program you wrote, liked it. Maybe for V2.0 you could introduce a (kind of) quality field too? Average votes per post? Egos might get bruised but could be amusing.
Veering back on topic, have to say I'm with the Nay camp re the crypto ideas. Feels like another distraction from what surely must be the simplest route to income, given where we are now - fulfilling the PPA with the BPC. That's what I invested in (back in 2017 iirc!), not to help a few crypto-miners get rich. From the difficulties Tlou have had in Botswana already though, I would also be surprised if the crypto offtake ever happens. Poles and wires, not coins and tyres :)

I'll go with where we are now, 2.35p, and hope the next PPA award, and/or funding deal happens in time to make that look dumb.

Progress continues behind the scenes at @TlouEnergy ??Lesedi 4P dewatering, gas flowing and strong flare ??PPA negotiations advance ?? #Hydrogen project will open up a 2nd route to market for our gas ?? ??Strong demand growth is expected as ?? decarbonises. #TLOU #Botswana

Brad, interesting stats. I guess when countries are losing huge amounts (eg. Togo) that must be the 'including pilferage' factor the site mentions. Made me wonder - if Tlou owned the transmission lines, I would expect the electricity metered at Serowe to be paid for. However, if BPC own the lines, would it then be the Lesedi readings that are paid for? i.e. the point at which the electricity is supplied to the BPC? In the long run it might be a better deal to put the lines up and give them to BPC for free?! Just a thought, on a particularly dull work day.

TB - When I asked Tlou about the delays with getting the 2MW PPA finalised, the reasons given were fairly vague but one example of things that needed to be sorted out was on the metering of the electricity. Tlou would meter the supply and so would the BPC, and agreement had to be reached on how to deal with a discrepancy. Presumably that particular issue was dealt with as the 2MW was signed, so as to what is holding up the 10MW award, no, scoobyless here too.

TB - no problem with disagreement (keeps the board worth reading!)
Can you expand on the 70% point? I thought that until we are producing some amount way over 10MW, we would be selling 100% of the power to the BPC. I may have missed something along the way but AFAIK the success of the company doesn't rely on selling via the SAPP, it was a 'nice to have' option, after supplying power to the BPC, our primary customer...

Hi TB. For once in the Tlou story I'm not sure I hold the BG (BPC) responsible for this delay. We already have the 2MW PPA signed and sealed but, to date, TLOU have failed to deliver. If you were in the BG would you be rushing to offer us a bigger contract? I appreciate that Tlou want to get the 'right' backers on board, and if they can achieve that then great, but at what point should they consider the 2MW a proof of concept, get the $10m any way they can (Director's loan?), get connected to the grid and then go after further finance in a far stronger position?
Progress does feel 'tantalisingly close', just a due diligence report away perhaps, but I think that's what makes it more frustrating!

Hi Brad. I agree, I perceive that site to be a bit of a racket - and I should know, my Visual Perception is in the top 1% :)