Member Info for ps200306

You mean the guy you pretended to have filtered? ;-)

Nope, sundance, ps is not a Ms or Mrs, nor did he sell SOU at any less than they're worth today, nor buy PVR for any more than they're worth today. But STD123 is most definitely a deranged pothead.

However, interesting to note that you agree there's no medium term value here and are planning to just trade the ar$e out of it. Explains why this thing bobs up and down like a dead fish on news, and all the more reason for buyers to beware. Somewhere out there is yet another £100k worth of losses since yesterday.

STD123: "The shareprice rebound was inevitable as investors cashed in but the fundamentals moving forward have not changed."

That's right. And the fundamentals are that SOU is worth LESS THAN ZERO which is why the SP is going south again today. Somebody made about £100k on the churn over the last day or so. That was donated by all the nice people here who are writing:
* It will start to go up from next Tuesday;
* massively oversold now;
* Should start to recover from here;
* oversold bounce will come soon;
* should bounce from here. STRONG BUY;
* what a gift at this price! ;
* It will go up again significantly
* I think this will start moving north again shortly.

FFS, it's so frustrating seeing people not getting it. The value of Phase 1 to SOU is just enough to pay off its debts in about 12 years. So the net present value is less than zero. SOU actually PAID MONEY for a valuation that tells you that, so it's worth reading. To be worth any more than ZERO, i.e. to proceed with Phase 2, SOU will need to raise TEN TIMES more than the amount it has spent the last two years trying to raise. SOU is no longer an exploration company trying to prove up 31 Tcf so it can sell on to someone else for a quick killing. It is a production company that is worth as much as the gas it gets out of the ground, which right now is zero.

The best cracker was: "Yesterday’s news was good, you don’t get a Company like that wasting 2m on a Company that has no future". Strewth! Afriquia Gaz are not interested in SOU equity for the sake of it, they want gas they can sell at a profit. They are not speculators, they are downstream oilies.

So, to all the people piling in since yesterday -- you've bought a dog. Next time, do some research. And DO NOT LISTEN to the hustlers on this board who refuse to engage with facts.

sundance4, not often I get free laughs from this board but you posted a couple of crackers there. Underwater naked pole dancing indeed! Top posts! Meanwhile, from the resident pothead ...

STD123: "although there are still a few hurdles left to get over I'm confident we have the best man for the job. "

A FEW hurdles? Like raising $180m for a pipeline (i.e. 10 times the loan from Afriquia Gaz which has taken over a year to come to fruition and is still not quite there). Phase 1 was a hurdle. Phase 2 is a mountain.

sundance4: "With regards to the absence of Mr Ps223 blah blah and his constant detailed boring negativity, I did attempt to explain to him that it doesn't really matter one iota or gnats chuff how much this is worth or not worth its what people are willing to pay that drives the wildebeest herd"

That's absolutely true in the short term. It's also true that short term speculators will leave with their profits leaving the share price to languish again unless there is long term value to be seen. In the long run, any share is worth exactly the discounted value of future earnings. For SOU, that is still zero.

The the person who posted their valuation earlier -- there are $50m in debts and $13m/yr in plant lease to deduct, leaving the net value of this deal close to zero (even without worrying about the impending tax bill). Better long term value depends on a Phase 2 deal which requires a LOT more money to be raised than was today.

However, this is definitely a milestone moment for SOU -- a necessary (though not yet sufficient) hurdle overcome on the road to value. Well done to Graham.

Manyana: "Providence and Woodside are the only two companies in Ireland who can check for oil and gas in any area that is not covered by a license. That means Providence can actually search for oil and gas between the boundaries of Barryroe, Helvick, Hook Head and Dunmore if they should so want."

What sort of drugs are you on? Nobody can explore without an exploration license. And no new ones are being issued.

Manyana: "In fact, Providence are pretty well convinced Barryroe stretches into to KEL section beside Barryroe and they had an agreement to survey it in partnership with KEL but now KEL is for the birds they can do it themselves when KEL vanishes off the scene or else they can resurrect the agreement."

More delusions. The three year option on OPL1 ran from December 2015 to end of 2018. To exercise it and gain a 60% equity share, Providence would have had to drill a well at their own expense and then get DCCAE approval for the equity transfer. They announced in the 2018 end of year report that the option had not been exercised. There is nothing to resurrect.

Manyana: "Your distance from Cork to Milford Haven is wrong"

I didn't provide any distance from Cork to Milford Haven.

Manyana: "as is your length from "K" to Milford Haven is wrong"

Given that you think Barryroe is the same distance from Milford Haven as it is from Cork, you don't have much of a leg to stand on.

Manyana: "and what is even worse your costings of the pipeline are off the trees."

Again, completely moot since you think Milford Haven is four times closer than it actually is.

STD123: "Considering he has been handed a crock then he has done remarkably well considering the hand he has been dealt."

STD123 admitting SOU is a crock. I guess that's progress of sorts.

STD123: "He still has a plan and is diligently working through it and will certainly get us back on track ..."

Unless he has an alternative plan PLUS a time machine he's not going to get all the deadlines he's already missed back on track.

STD123: "... to deliver us to first gas".

As usual, STD123 ignoring that SOU will still be worth LESS THAN NOTHING at first gas.

Graham needs to deliver Phase 1 *AND* Phase 2 (which he has admitted is a distant aspiration) and even then many shareholders will still be a mile under water.

Manyana: "Thanks for scrambling around in the dung to try and prove my statements wrong but you failed. "

Also Manyana: "a pipeline from Barryroe and Hook Head to Milford Haven is about the same length as Barryroe to Cork".

LOL.

Manyana: "And you are wrong, p*s200306, Milford Haven is 146 miles directly from Cork. That is about 230km. Where did you get your facts from?"

??? I said the distance was a little over 230 km (and I measured it to Barryroe itself, not Cork). Manyana seems to be having a problem comparing 230 km to 230 km. What's more he seems to have forgotten he claimed Milford Haven was as close to Barryroe as Cork (the latter distance actually being 49 km).

"Furthermore, who said the pipeline would have to run from "K"? When you link Barryroe to Hook Head and Dunmore. How long is a pipeline from Dunmore to Milford Haven? Far less than the 150KM used by Kinsale."

What're you connecting B'roe to Dunmore with ... rubber bands?

Manyana: "The average inflation-adjusted industry publication pipeline cost average $3.1 million/mi ($1.9 million/km)."

That's in the US, in a mature province, and averaged over 1995 to 2014. Check out cost for things like Nord Stream and related.

Manyana: "Today’s supertankers, on the average, can hold 2 million barrels of oil. so if a supertanker was used to off-take in Barryroe at 10,000 barrels a day how long would it take to fill it? 200 days. I've done the maths for you because I know both of you are thick."

Eh, WRONG. 2 mbbl is not an "average", it's the maximum. There's one bigger class of ship, the ULCC, but there's only two of them in the world. The BREAK EVEN lease cost for a 2 mbbl VLCC is $35,000/day. And you're going to have one lying around for 200 days doing nothing? That's $3.50 for every barrel of oil at COST price, so actually probably double that. Are you trying to squander your profit margin?

Tip for you: if you want to sound clever you'll need more than a bit of random Googling.

Manyana: "a pipeline from Barryroe and Hook Head to Milford Haven is about the same length as Barryroe to Cork".

Laughable. The Barryroe 'K' site is 49 kilometres from the nearest point on the Cork coast. Milford Haven is more than 230 kilometres from the 'K' site. That is not "about the same length" and, with underwater pipelines costing $4m to $6m per kilometre, certainly not the same cost.

I reckon you should crack open a celebratory bottle of water if you ever see a third of that.

STD123 reminds me of the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. "Tis but a scratch", as he gets his limbs lopped off.

STD123: "... behind the scenes he is working tirelessly to close the contracts. Once this good news filters through then as I stated previously the SP will be far north of where it is now for sure."

HTF does STD123 claim to know this? SOU's own valuation says that the company is worth LESS THAN NOTHING even after the Phase 1 contracts are signed and WITHOUT the tax bill hanging over them. STD123 is a hustler, plain and simple.

It's three months to the day since STD123 predicted a share price of 4-6p in three months. Later he said SOU was on the way to "our true worth which I'm sure is far in excess of 14p". I've no doubt he still trusts Graham, though obviously not in the valuation that Graham commissioned seeing as that paints a less rosy picture.

Interesting to hear that Graham thinks he can close the contracts without the tax being sorted. I guess we have to take him at his word but it's a bit hard to fathom, since if the tax bill was upheld it would be impossible for SOU to pay its debts from Phase 1 revenue. The other question is why, if tax is *not* an issue, is the Afriquia Gaz contract at least eight months behind the original schedule. All that said, it's a lot better than if Graham said the tax was a showstopper (assuming he's right).

"Is anyone able to confirm if the Phase 1 contracts can actually be agreed prior to the clarifying the outstanding tax demand?"

I'm sure Graham could, and I find it quite incredible that he hasn't said one way or another in recent interviews or RNS's. My own guess all along has been that it's an existential issue. If the tribunal rules in the taxman's favour, they could shut SOU down or seriously impair its ability to repay debt. Who in their right mind would fork out $16 million dollars to a company in that situation? Just my opinion though ... Graham really should address it.

Agreed, p5tvr. I guess the takeaway is that just because some of the multinationals are selling off assets doesn't mean the appetite for oil is reducing, or that there aren't plenty of buyers willing to snap them up. Global demand hit the 100 mbbl/day mark in 2019, up by its relentless 1.5%+ per annum increase over the previous decade. It will only take until 2023 for demand to recover and exceed pre-pandemic levels according to the IEA. My only fear for Barryroe is that all the delays risk running into yet another cyclical downturn that might affect the raising of finance.

p5tr: "I know it's a contradiction but the rise in oil prices could have a lot to do with green energy ,one boat floating the other . The consequences of trying to control a free market !"

You probably saw this link over on ukadvn. You can get around the FT paywall by Googling the article and picking the first hit from here:
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22A+%24140bn+asset+sale%3A+the+investors+cashing+in+on+Big+Oil%E2%80%99s+push+to+net+zero%22

Also, regarding the IT article about rising electricity prices, I wonder how candid that CRU chairwoman was with the Oireachtas committee. The estimates from the Irish Engineers Society earlier in the year made it look like prices could double or more to hit 2030 renewables targets.

I think it's a fairly simple calculus. If/when Graham gets a Phase 2 funding deal without giving the farm away, SOU will be worth something again.