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"It's a 100-to-one mad bet, costing a fortune in the most expensive, harsh environment for oil and gas exploration you can find."

What Sleepy's eco-Marxist rant ignores is that the bet is taken by private money. Unlike his green utopia, the taxpayer doesn't have to foot the bill. He also doesn't seem to understand the difference between wildcat exploring and developing a known find. But none of that matters because he holds all the cards in this bet. I've been reading over the rules governing petroleum authorisations and I can't find anything that compels the minister to respond in a timely fashion, or in any timeframe at all. There's a casual statement that Ireland is a "supportive environment" for petroleum prospectors, but that was then and this is now, and there's nothing legally binding about it. I guess the idea was to make sure that exploration companies behaved properly, and the idea that the government itself would be a bad actor was never considered. Ryan can just stretch this out until Barryroe and PVR are dead, and my guess is that's exactly what he intends to do. He knows that if he grants the lease undertaking that he will be on a much stickier wicket trying to block a lease for actual development. So he dissembles and there seems little anyone can do. All he needs to say officially is that the lease undertaking is "under consideration". He's obviously of the opinion that any eventual decision is a matter of his own magisterial whim, uninfluenced by economic good sense.

It's painful to listen to Ryan. The swivel-eyed eco-zealot must be loving the opportunity afforded by this war to push his renewables message. I can't believe he was let away with that blather about the energy credit, which will still leave consumers facing about 90% of the increases in their energy bills on their own. We have an immediate energy emergency and he is talking about hydrogen from wind energy which is probably a decade away. He also completely ignores that Ireland is completely dependent on fossil fuels TODAY for far more than electricity needs. While wind provides a significant fraction of electricity, renewables (including hydro and biomass as well as wind) only account for 13% of our primary energy use. All the rest is fossil fuels. But Ryan would prefer to see the lights go out and transport grind to a halt than to see LNG imports or indigenous fossil fuel extraction. The guy genuinely frightens me. But he gets a free pass because most people don't understand the coming impact of his craziness. And now he also has a war to use as an excuse.

Pretty sure Ryan will do nothing about the lease until someone kicks his a$$. Or, at least, he will do nothing to improve the efficiency of the Petroleum Affairs Division at his department. A year to approve a lease undertaking is crazy. It took over a year to approve a seabed survey! Drilling an appraisal well will be another application, presumably another year. You couldn't make it up. In fairness, PVR hasn't been a bastion of efficiency itself, but no company can operate this way.

The previous almost identical seabed survey carried out by PVR got approved in less than seven months. That wasn't exactly fast, but it was barely half of the time taken for the subsequent survey. A year (so far) for the petroleum lease undertaking is even more problematic because the grant of a subsequent lease automatically kicks in a fixed period of time after the expiration of the exploration license (in this case, from July 2021). Presumably that's why the licensee has to apply for the lease undertaking three months before expiry, on the expectation that the undertaking will be granted within that three month period. So in this case Ryan is not just hampering PVR's efforts to move Barryroe forward, but he is eating into the time they then have to demonstrate commerciality in order to qualify for the petroleum lease.

Thanks Swizz. Seems to be only the DCCAE's website that isn't up to date:

https://www.dccae.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/topics/Oil-Gas-Exploration-Production/licensing/licences-and-maps/Pages/Six-Monthly-Report-to-the-Oireachtas.aspx

According to DCCAE's own website: "In accordance with Section 57 of the Petroleum and Other Minerals Development Act, the Minister is required to present to the Houses of the Oireachtas a six monthly report on Petroleum Exploration and Development in Ireland". They haven't posted a report since 2019.

Why won't Ryan respond to PVR in connection with its application for a petroleum lease undertaking? Is it just institutional incompetence or a deliberate foot-dragging exercise. Surely at some point it makes sense to get lawyers on the job?

I'm sure the UK will love that idea. "Please UK, send us more of your imported gas so we can keep our own until we need it".

It's pretty simple. The share price is not going anywhere until Phase 2 financing is sorted, and maybe not until quite some time after that. After all, it took nearly two years from the first Afriquia Gaz announcement to FID, and will be another two years to first revenue from Phase 1. There have been some sentiment-driven lurches in the SP but nothing lasting, nor should any be expected. We have a broker valuation for Phase 2 of 8p.

(I'd like to say it had something to do with me writing at length to two TDs last week, but I doubt that was it ;-)

Looks like our PR woman just earned her fee.

My memory was faulty. On checking ANGS RNS of Feb 4th, it says of SOUs potential offer "that such announcement must now be made by not later than 5.00pm on 11 March 2022, being the date being 28 days from the admission of the new Angus Energy plc shares to trading on AIM." So the drop dead moment is later today. RNS no later than Monday, then.

Had been wondering exactly that myself, but didn't like to bring it up. I think STD123 tends to pop up when there's a rally and announce his undying love for Graham. Ironically, according to himself he has now passed up not one, but *two* opportunities to get out at evens. Right now he's down over 50% (assuming he actually owns shares).

On another note, isn't next week the deadline for an ANGS offer? At least that uncertainty should be behind us a week from now.

I remember the "Drive 55" campaign in the US. Came in during the 70s oil embargo but still in force in the late 80s when I started driving there. Apparently only saved around 0.5% on fuel use. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Maximum_Speed_Law

Sleepy will have to come up with something better that that. Actually, here's a sobering article on how Greens are contributing to the decline of the West: https://quillette.com/2022/03/09/the-new-great-game/

Part of the problem for Barryroe is that it will not specifically improve Ireland's lot, but needs to be seen in the context of broader global energy supply. It's more about oil than gas, but even if the gas-rich OPL-1 option area was opened up again it would not reduce gas costs. Vermilion (who must be delighted with their Equinor share buyout) have been making a killing on Corrib in the last 12 months because the gas is sold at market rates, set by the marginal costs of pipeline imports from Moffat. What new gas WOULD do is improve security of supply. As for the oil in Barryroe, it would also be sold at market rates. Barryroe oil couldn't even be refined locally in Ireland without refitting the Whitegate refinery to handle the specific grade.

From a tax revenue POV, Corrib is still not "cash taxable" and won't be for years to come because of the cost overruns due to "Shell to Sea". PVR would also have massive tax write-offs due to prior investment. So the compelling case for Barryroe is neither tax revenues nor cheaper prices, which makes it a bit harder to twist Sleepy's arm. Nope, it's that his swivel-eyed ecoloon policies are an workable disaster ... but I doubt he's open to persuasion on *that*.

Sundance, don't disagree with you -- can never rule out some bolt from the blue that would put a rocket under SOU. But apart from the Anoual well commitment (which SOU will have to raise money for) I don't see them drilling outside TE-5 horst under their own steam in the next four years or so. Phase 1 won't bring in the money to do that, so Phase 2 implementation is required before SOU have major cash flow. And we still don't know what Phase 2 financing entails vis a vis dilution etc. There's always unknowns like a Sidi farmout, SBK etc. Who knows. Hope springs eternal. I just wouldn't be betting the farm on it. (Actually, scratch that -- I DID, and lost ;-)

Yep, that's what ultimately killed me. In spite of buying in at the top, the amount would have been a very manageable loss if it wasn't for the assurance that SOU's 1/3 of a tcf "underpinned" them at 54p. Therefore averaging all the way down seemed more than sensible, leading to an absolute classic case of "catching the falling knife". Absolutely nobody's fault but my own -- by the time I got my average down to 15p I was in for ten times my original stake. Turned out the supposed 54p was actually only half that, and we've endured a nearly two thirds dilution since then, so now it's less than 9p ... which is confirmed by SP Angel's valuation. But even that depends on a whole bunch of Phase 2 milestones AND no further dilution in achieving them. One can't rule out everything going exactly right plus more exploration success to boot. But then there is the sunk cost fallacy -- the idea that you have to stick with the horse you bet on just because you now need a ten-bagger to break even. That presupposes that SOU is any more likely to achieve that than any other investment opportunity out there. I cured myself of that notion over a year ago now, and the SP is now exactly back to where it was when I did so. Without wanting to be disparaging, I think the idea that SOU will ever hit mid-20p levels again is delusional.

The current crisis is a godsend to the Greens. What more proof is needed that the renewables transition must now be accelerated? Forget the fact that it can't work. Eamon Ryan says it can, and FF/FG can't disagree without collapsing the coalition and ceding power to SF. Political self-preservation trumps sanity on this one. That's why we are cattle trucked.

Just by the by, here is the summary from a 2013 study on the limits of interconnector use on the Irish grid: https://www.store-project.eu/documents/target-country-results/en_GB/energy-storage-needs-in-ireland-executive-summary

It notes that wind in Ireland and the UK are highly correlated, with peak wind in the UK typically occurring four hours after Ireland. That means an interconnector with the UK is useless for smoothing out wind variability over longer timescales. Excess wind in Ireland will end up being curtailed. Other grid storage will therefore be needed and Turlough Hill pumped hydro is a small fraction of requirements. I note that this study was before the Celtic interconnector to France was planned, but I don't know how much it improves the overall picture.

My point still stands. No country on the planet has demonstrated the ability to integrate 80% of energy requirements from wind. Our ability to attract both wind and gas plant suppliers has not been demonstrated (in fact we've been ****ing off both), the costs have been largely handwaved away in the governments superficial transition plan, and basically there is a total lack of joined up thinking for something that is supposed to be in operation in just eight years. We are committing energy hara kiri.

Ryan SHOULD be a scapegoat. Yes, he was democratically elected but one hopes that democratically elected representatives will be marginally competent. The strategy the Greens are following (with buy in from the rest of the government) CANNOT WORK. No amount of renewables can save us from dependence on fossil fuel backup, unless you are prepared for the grid to shut down when the wind doesn't blow for two weeks. Fossil fuel capacity therefore has to increase in tandem with renewables. This is explicitly recognised in the energy trading market with the heavy loading for firm power commitments from renewables. We cannot depend on grid-scale storage which is a technological pipedream, nor on interconnectors which do not provide actual energy but just the chance to bid against other bigger energy-strapped economies. We also cannot depend on a single source for continuing gas imports, especially not the UK which has left the EU and will be importing 75% of their own needs in just a few years. I don't think even people on here -- let alone the general public -- have the slightest idea of the energy disaster that we are walking ourselves into. By 2030, Eamon Ryan will be drawing his gold star public service pension while half the country is burning the furniture to stay warm.

Twitter thread on European gas usage:

https://twitter.com/ntsafos/status/1497619026222239748

Fuel retailers have wasted no time increasing prices at the pump. Paid over €100 to fill a small car today. If I'd bought premium it would have been just shy of €2/litre. Oil was up nearly $3 today alone, with Brent now sitting at over $115/bbl. So there are even higher retail costs in the pipeline. This is going to be hurting a lot of people. Important to realise that prices were going up anyway due to under-investment in exploration, even before the current geopolitical tensions. I've started drafting a letter to my local TDs to see if anyone can put a rocket under Ryan. I'm under no illusions it'll achieve anything, but no harm trying. There's more than enough delusional politicians in the world, but at least we're able to complain about our own.

Hardly a new industry, Mamms. I remember when we switched from "town gas" (coal gas) to natural gas from the Celtic Sea, and it's over forty years ago. Yes, Barryroe is principally oil and not gas (though that could change if the government were to relicense the OPL1 option area in the Barryroe east panel). But the facilities required are not rocket science.

Unfortunately, I can't disagree with you about the hostile administration. It seems fantastical to me how we are sleepwalking into killing off our energy infrastructure. I think both the admin and the public are clueless about the implications, which are nothing short of disastrous.