RE: Prem27 Dec 2022 11:34
Morning all, hope you had a lovely xmas break.
D&C (great Led Zeppelin song btw) johnny and I mentioned our worries as well. GR in the Sept Stockbox said a RUS would come soon, now in Dec he is saying there won't be one yet as from Mar 2023 the main focus is expanding the resource, not defining it.
If you want to compound the problem you can add that lithium spot prices have been decreasing for the last 6 weeks straight and China EV subsidies are coming to an end this week. Demand may slow down a little bit.
However, it's not all bad:
- Lithium prices are still very high compared to a year ago so still plenty profits to be made
- Compared to RHA we have way more guarantees now, fully funded to production launch and a partner with deep pockets that needs spodumene to be extracted asap
- Forecasts for China EV sales in 2023 are still expected to be strong even with higher costs and lower profit margins
- GR and Suzhou have pretty much confirmed that the pilot plant will be expanded together with the resource which means new ore bodies will be found within the EPO so more drilling and exploration to come. Once the resource is defined, PREM will also have more of it
- PREM has ore sorters so potential new revenue streams to be added to the current spodumene calculations
- I believe GR has somewhat changed, of course he is dancing to the tune of Suzhou, but at least he has resources and guidance that he did not have in the past
- New conference in London in 3 weeks, I am certain clarification on a lot of points will be provided
- Last but not least, how many other junior/AIM miners do you see that will be extracting, ore sorting, stockpiling and directly selling in 2023? The answer to that should provide some comfort
I have zero doubt about PREM getting the pilot plant installed, tested, launched and production started. We may see a few weeks delay due to the size and dependencies of the project but i can't see us getting to end of Q2 and still have not exported anything (that is when Suzhou starts to ask for cash payments in case no spodumene has been exported).
We've been waiting so long for this moment, some for over 8 years. Let's stay patient and positive for another 3-4 months at least :-)