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Many thanks eat,deck, SP
I don't understand why we are blocked in gaining access to the high court. The is something going on for sure.
I think the time has come for the dispute with the government of India to be initiated. It's time for the claim amount to be disclosed - $1.5 Billion in my view and not a cent less.
RNS please next week MB!!!
Does anyone know why we still can't get access to the Rajasthan High court website. Thanks
Mickey
Agree.
I was thinking, Mark must have his reasons for not having the Rajasthan govt as a JV partner that he would opt for a third part JV partner
16k pounds worth of sales has wiped out £1.5 million off the market cap.
I can't see a reason why people want to sell at this juncture. As I have said before, this is currently sitting at a meagre 1/10 th it's true value. I will go fully loaded here if my other investment come to fruition which I will sell
Think of ORR if their Cameroon licence were to be taken away. They might not get anything
Stampee
One very significant and distinct aspect we have which differentiates PAT from past cases is that we already have a Jorc of 1.7 million ounces and Jorc equivalent of nearly 7 million ounces. This will be used as a basis of a claim in my opinion. A vast number of past cases were I believe brought say on the basis of just having a licence and not put a single shovel in the ground so to speak.
We sit as an outlier.
Check out ICSID STATISTICS on arbitration
Please see Charles River Associates article on Mineral resources disputes
I should have added - based on the GreenX analysis I summed up in my previous post
We should, in my opinion, already be on £1 per share. It's only a matter of time when the market reflects that.
The award will come and it's going to be massive. If we lodge a claim for the kind of amount I stated which is the estimated NPV of say $1.5 Billion based on the estimated cash flows ( Note that this is ignoring the interest costs that would be added on top and compounded in respect of the costs which we have already incurred and the benefits of that investment foregone for the last however many years) , which we are then awarded by the tribunal, I would think thst it renders the project not worth while for the Rajasthan govt at all as they would need to borrow the full amount of the compensation and try to repay that sum over say next 25 years with interest as well as borrow the project costs. If they get in a local JV partner, they would have to give away a big chunk of the project for the JV partner's lost Return if they had deployed such sum elsewhere in their company project. This makes even more senseless for the Rajasthan govt to go to the tribunal.
agree with what's been said roxi and sebo. i believe the mindset is no outside company should benefit from controlling the asset - in one of the court judgements i posted here, they said they were willing to form a jv so i think the dispute must be along the line of who has control and mb won't give that away.
i also think the rajasthan government have total disregard for bit. however, i believe the indian govt won't let this go to the international tribunal and dent whatever good is being done by them in other areas. but, you never know.
mb has made the decision that enough is enough. for us, mb and the team from fascans has seen this as a winner for us and indeed mb has mentioned in one of the video interviews - it's a win win for us. better still , judging by the amount of $5.4 billion awarded against ****stan government based on discounted cash flows from the project on the case i posted recently, the discounted pv of the cash flows come to $1.5 billion. i would be happy to wait whatever it takes but imagine this would take 2 to 3 years as the fascan team seem well progressed already for over a year now but it's a question we can raise with mb.
my guess is a letter has already gone out to them from mb stating a case will be filed under the bit if the rajasthan government do not get to the table to reach an amicable agreement by a certain date.
Courtesy of a poster on another chat board. My word, this is powerful!!!
https://youtu.be/JB7FzsWXizk?si=3qBd9n_c9lreZ-tq
News soon?
Hi Mickey
Agree - mine is not great either. The news will catch on soon.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT - WE WERE AT 3.70p ON 6 APRIL 2023
" the tribunal decided that discounted cash-flow would be used for the valuation of investment's market value.........citing crystallex v venezuela"
" the tribunal noted that dcf valuation was taken into account by mining bodies....". " the tribunal set a compound interest rate according to international law authorities"
https://www.iisd.org/itn/en/2019/12/17/tribunal-finds-****stan-breached-fet-expropriation-non-impairment-obligations-mining-joint-venture-with-australian-investor-tethyan-copper-company-tethyan-copper-company-v-****stan-icsid-arb-12-1/
game on - as we have mentioned all along
Agree with all here:
The share price, on announcement of the funding, has not really caught up to where it should be - hoping this will change soon
Obviously the share price increase will happen over time and I am hoping will accelerate leading up to the announcement of the quantum of the claim - MB mentions in the interview that we are significantly advanced with our team of specialists advisors.
Currently, without any claim figure, we are obviously not seeing much increase. Ignoring for a moment the size of our asset and the profit which will be forgone if there is no amicable agreement, even if we were to use the same quantum of claim of £740 million or so made by GreenX on their coal assets, our share price has a lot of ground to cover.
GreenX, when it first talked about the claim amount back in September 2020, I believe their share price was around 10p. This has increased 4-5 folds today with the outcome not yet reached. I believe this increase in their share price works to around only 20% of the claim amount. If we were to apply 20% to an equivalent amount of claim of £740 million when announced, we would expect the share price to reflect, over time, an increase in market cap, on an equivalent basis, £148 million OR £148m/154m shares = 96p. Currently, we are at 9p which is 1/10 of what we could achieve on similar basis as GreenX (assume for now over the same period as GreenX) once the claim is announced. If we were to instead be awarded say the full claim equivalent to that submitted by GreenX then you can see where the share price could get to.
We don't know what claim figure MB has in mind. If GreenX have submitted their claim on the basis of the market value of the coal assets and the profit forgone and factoring the time value of money, my estimated workings based on a 25 year project producing 350,000 ounces of gold each year indicates that we could possibly submit a claim in the range of some £1.45 Billion based on 6.7 million ounces with gold market price of £1800 and costs of £800 and an initial outlay of £250 M + interest rate of 10%.
I can't for a moment imagine that the Indian Govt, who recently has been entering into bilateral treaties particularly with Australia on a range of areas covering mining, would allow their image to be tarnished.
I don't think that there will be an agreement soon - certainly not before the next court hearing - I am hoping for the next RNS to say that the parties have started discussions towards that goal.
Hi Mickey and all
Just caught your message - I was going to post but got extremely busy. I will post later tonight or tomorrow morning
Stampee1, I personally would be very happy with that.