The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Paul Griffiths is on record as saying an important driver is to provide affordable gas to Morocco. He is not actually after the greedyest deal. And before others complain about that, go and listen to his interviews (you did that before you bought didn't you?). I don't think people appreciate how much, over the years, Paul and Lonny have invested in relationships with Morocco.
It's in PRDs and the Prime minister's interest to keep his voters happy with cheaper guess and better prosperity. That is the priority and then look to bigger things. If Paul wasn't focused on that,then the risk of onhym or the state putting us over a barrel or even pulling the plug is far greater.
All IMO. ATB PT.
jimmy not sure i agree it's a condition, we could still enter the first extension period with testing not started or incomplete, although i suspect it will get done, after today's update.
agree the whole nonsense on the raises has not been good. i've no doubt if they could start before january, they would, but even now there is some paperwork left to complete and resource to organise, who could be working on other jobs.
it would take a major ******* up to lose the licence, but clearly there is risk. i just wanted to make the point that making february sound like a vliff edge is misleading.
PART FIVE
So, in February, unless we choose not to take it up, we will have the option to move into the first extension period. If we do, there will be work program commitments, which are detailed on, yes you’ve guessed it, page 99 of the prospectus.
There is a lot of information available in various documents already in the public domain. I find them to be a bit more informative than the Johnny-come-lately’s on here chancing their arm.
ATB PT
PART FOUR
Now with this context, please read the following from todays RNS
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/update-on-guercif-testing-morocco-and-trinidad-h2iwfkieb53cvb3.html
“Petroleum Amendment No.3
Following the signing and approval of Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.2 dated 14 October 2022, the Initial Period of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement and corresponding Exploration Permits, which had been extended from 30 months to 42 months as a result of Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.1 dated 27 November, 2020, which allowed for force majeure due to COVID, was extended by a further 9 months to 5 August,2023. This allowed for the acceleration of additional drilling that would have otherwise been scheduled for the First Extension Period.
A further extension of six months to 5 February, 2024 was agreed with Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines ("ONHYM") to allow for the completion of the MOU-3 and MOU-4 drilling programme and associated reports and studies and for a potential rigless testing programme to be executed subject to a review of the drilling results.
Accordingly Petroleum Agreement Amendment No. 3 was executed by Predator Gas Ventures Ltd. ("PGVL") and ONHYM dated 31 July 2023 and extended the Initial Period of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement and corresponding Exploration Permits to 57 months until 5 February, 2024 subject to obtaining the required statutory approvals under the form of (i) a Joint Ministerial Order to be executed by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance approving the Guercif Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.3 and (ii) an order to be executed by the Ministry of Energy approving the six months extension to the Exploration Permits Initial Period.”
PART THREE
Page 98
“An application by Predator for an exclusive exploration licence of the Guercif licence areas was accepted by the Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM) acting on behalf of the Moroccan State and signed on March 19th 2019. The Petroleum Agreement covers four exploration permits (Guercif I, II, III & IV), covering some 7,269km2 east of the producing fields in the Rharb Basin and northwest of the Tendrara gas project. Predator is the Operator of the licence with a 75% interest. OHNYM holds the remaining 25%. OHNYM has a carried interest during the exploration phase but will contribute to costs once commercial production is declared.”
“THE LICENCE DURATION IS FOR 9 YEARS AND IS SPLIT INTO 3 PHASES. An overview of the minimum work programme and budget is given in Table 3-1. The main exploration target is an Upper Miocene turbidite system (Tortonian). In the Initial Exploration Period, Predator’s MOU-1 well has proven 10 m of net gas in this reservoir. The MOU-1 has yet to be production tested but there are plans to perform a test using Sandjet technology in mid-2023. After an extension of one year, the original term of the Initial Period of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement ended on 18 September 2022 but was extended by Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.2 for a further nine months. ONHYM were notified by the Company of its intention to enter the First Extension Period on 5 June 2023. Subject to all regulatory approvals and the completion of the MOU-4 well the First Extension Period will commence on 5 August 2023. The First Extension Period of 27 months includes acquisition of 200 km2 3D seismic data. Predator’s second exploration well (MOU-2) was drilled in Q1 2023, however, this well stopped short of the Tortonian target and of the committed 2000 m TD1 . It penetrated a >250 m gravity slide and the well was suspended because of operational challenges.”
PART TWO
The Company has completed negotiations to extend the initial period of the Guercif PA by a further 9 months to 51 months to allow acceleration of the one well commitment planned for the First Extension Period to facilitate it being drilled in the Initial Period whilst a drilling rig was available on site. This would remove the drilling commitment from the First Extension Period and eliminate the requirement to put up a new bank guarantee in favour of ONHYM prior to entering the First Extension Period. The Company also negotiated to reduce its drilling depth commitment from 2,000 metres measured depth to 1,500 metres measured depth or top middle Jurassic, whichever occurred first. The First Extension Period would be reduced from 36 to 27 months. Successful conclusions of these negotiations will allow the Company to cost-effectively rationalise drilling expenditures and to reduce potential wastage in resources and finances. A Joint Ministerial Order has been signed approving the amendment to the Guercif PA and has been gazetted.
The Company has completed its 2D seismic reprocessing commitment and desktop studies and has drilled MOU-2, suspending the well for potential re-entry and deepening at 1,260 metres measured depth after encountering a geological formation that was not forecast pre-drilling. This formation slowed the rate of drilling to unacceptably low rates of penetration. Re-entry will be dependent on finding a better solution for the drilling mud parameters to address the low rates of penetration and on biostratigraphic age dating of the section penetrated in the interval exhibiting low rates of penetration. The Company has completed the drilling of MOU-3 to its planned total depth of 1,500 metres measured depth and the well has been completed for rigless testing. The Company for rigless testing has also completed the drilling of MOU-4 to a total depth of 1,199 metres measured depth and the well has been completed.”
PART ONE:
Just thought I would drop in to share the following information with those, who have, it would appear, done little in the way of research, but are happy to scaremonger about the Guercif Petroleum Agreement (Guercif PA), ending in Feb 2024.
Please refer to the following information on pages 33 and 98 of the prospectus – the sentences in caps are my emphasis.
20230810-Project-Allossaurus-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf (wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com)
Page 33
“THE GUERCIF PA INITIALLY RAN FOR 8 YEARS SPLIT INTO AN INITIAL PERIOD OF 30 MONTHS, WHICH COMMENCED ON 19 MARCH 2019; a First Extension Period of 36 months duration; and a Second Extension Period also of 30 months. After each licence period there is an opportunity to withdraw from the licence, without entering the next licence period.
A one year extension to the initial period of the Guercif PA was granted as a consequence of the restrictions that resulted from the COVID pandemic. AS A RESULT THE GUERCIF PA WAS EXTENDED TO 9 INSTEAD OF 8 YEARS with the initial period extended to 42 months.
In the initial period the work programme comprises 250 kilometres of 2D seismic reprocessing and AVO analysis and the drilling of one exploration well to a minimum depth of 2,000 metres or to the top of the Jurassic, whichever occurs first. Desk-top geological and gas marketing studies will also be carried out. The minimum exploration commitment is US$3,458,000.
The issue is explained in the rns.
The issue was on onhym's side.
It would take a very brave person to publish an rns that confirms an onhym mistake/omission, if that was false information.
Could these changes be due to the ground getting wet from rain, which then dries out etc. Unless you've got access to high res pics, I'm inclined to think not much can be deduced Nick.
Me too Micktrick. I've added over time, but I remember the days when the were a handful of trades and sometimes none in a day, with a similar number of posts on here too.
"I know, let's have a spelling contest" (sorry couldn't resist another Tombstone quote, but it chimes with the relevance of tonight's exchanges).
ShortShrift - Why not research companies instead of LSE posters. I mean, literally, play the ball not the man?! :o)
Sorry ShortShrift, I didn't appreciate there was some kinda etoro strategy ongoing on here.
Maybe I can help a little? 1M shares is 7 figures. a one followed by six zeros. So a seven figure purchase will not trigger a TR1 whether there are 100M or 200M shares in issue. The end.
Actually, he hasn't but has skillfully gaslightEd and manipulated others into thinking he has. Nigel has been wrong at least as often as he's been right. No better than heads or tails.
Any thoughts on the flow gas in this pipeline being in both directions?
https://fr.hespress.com/339344-etude-dans-30-ans-le-monde-aura-toujours-grand-besoin-de-gaz.html
https://fr-hespress-com.translate.goog/339344-etude-dans-30-ans-le-monde-aura-toujours-grand-besoin-de-gaz.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp#google_vignette
No they've promised none of that too Micktrick ( business post have seen the letter). I think they might have promised Ryan a bike for Christmas as well 😂
The government still have to follow the review process they have outlined, but NFE appear to be trying to undermine proper process. Effectively trying to tell them whatever they want to hear 🙄
NFE saying they can provide a state owned fsru within 26 weeks for free!
New Fortress appear to be shifting tactics. A little desperate , I feel.
https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/shannon-lng-firm-offers-use-of-ship-to-hold-emergency-gas-stores/a632163235.html