The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Sold today
Have been a long-term holder for 2 years at 0.1 average, sold at 70% profit thankfully making a decent chunk. No longer have the patience for AIM stocks. The RNS was good, but you have to remember, it's all relative to shareholder expectations. It was nothing new in reality. Wishing good luck to all and will be curious to see what happens down the line here.
@bridgedogg1 all exploration shares are high risk..
..But just look at our SP. Look at it! Look at the size of the resource and look at our current SP. This is an absolute bargain.. infact its a bargain 10x what we are currently at. There are 5 export options in the play with none confirmed and they don't have to be yet. That is to unfold. So exciting :)
Great presentation. Lots of confidence building here with the resource, its mega - get the feeling that the BOIL BOD are very conservative and not flinging about wild estimates which is very sensible. Good to see the multiple export options that are flexible and dependent on the unfolding of more than one decision and that they are listening to investors. Very mature of them to be considering the future of fossil fuels with respect to CCS options aswell.
They're after a proper set up here - deliver seismic results - farm out / JV to interested party - confirm resource with appraisal wells - plan for export options with regional majors (TL NOC, Korean, Japan, Australia companies) - CCS for responsible exploitation of resource. Sounds like a proper job. Very excited
Tonnacombe - not sure on your experience to be honest as all the points your friend from Vancouver raised on the phone to you are basic survey principles, especially for an open location Jack-up rig move. Magnetic declination will play no part - what you're talking about is convergence between gyro (true) N and local grid N. Antenna positioning while the rig is drilling won't make a difference, in most cases the survey crews are off the platform after the drill string has spudded and all survey kit is removed. Rig isn't going to move again. Nearly all companies provide teams with a .geo file now with a pre-determined geodesy and client supplied conversion coordinates. Highly likely client rep would have checked the final rig position when the spud-cans hit the seabed.
'he had the contract to supply hydrographic surveyors in the N sea before he sold they company.' - not sure if you know how business works but there are hundreds of survey companies in Europe that individually tender for projects, with multiple companies being assigned per Rig / AHV / Construction vessel - regardless of the client. You introduced yourself as a Plymouth Graduate - Hydrography. That's my background. Doesn't mean anything to me though, I've seen graduates and seniors unable to even level a tripod...
... I feel I'll get hate for the above as its not in line with peoples positive expectations of revival but as I mentioned in my previous post you're just prolonging the inevitable. Hypothetically, even if there was a major mess up - do you think the SP will shoot back up to 4p? Most likely did drill in the wrong location - but not due to positioning error, due to resolution errors in 2D data quality (which raises the question of overall seismic value)..
Turned into a bloodbath here with people trying to offer advice to the individual survey contactor who positioned the rig - to others trying to question if the drill even took place!?.. If you're really in doubt go on MarineTraffic and have a look at the area yourself.
Good evening to all
You're clutching at straws here..
I used to be an offshore surveyor. Very rare that a rig would be jacked down in the wrong position - that's why datum transformations are confirmed using coordinates prior to loading into positioning software.
Here's what happened - ADV tried to reprocess poor 2D without significant geological input, drilled an area that's already been heavily drained and got disappointing results. This share is finished. 'It will bounce back' - no it won't it's 6ft under and the funeral has already taken place. I feel really sorry for everybody that was so heavily invested. I have quiet a large pot in multiple AIM listed exploration / minerals company's and its high risk, high reward. I too would feel completely shot losing an amount that many have the past few days but trying to talk yourselves back into this is just prolonging the pain. Perhaps this is what people don't want to hear, but need to hear. Its done.
Not being negative - just my thoughts, if I get a torrent of abuse for this then fair enough.
Morning all,
Long time no speak! I think ADV failure at Buffalo will put pressure on TL gov - its another potential income source wiped away. As others have mentioned - its now or never if they want a budget for the next decade.
Maybe we will see some of the guys from ADV that are 80% down moving over here, hoping for high reward on what they have left? We have proven reserves - and likely much more.
Good day to all! :)
I have noticed that on the AGM RNS and also the recent update, both mentioned the importance of the Darwin LNG plant and infrastructure for monetisation of the Chuditch field.
'The recent uptick in oil & gas activity in the Timor Sea region, including infill drilling at Bayu-Undan (the only producing field currently in Timor-Leste), continues and will be key to the successful evacuation and monetisation of gas from the area. Expenditure of more than US$4.5 billion has been committed to extend the life of existing fields and pipelines, bring new fields onstream, and increase capacity at the Wickham Point, Darwin LNG plant.'
&
'We believe that recent events in the Timor Sea area illustrate the high value potential of Chuditch within this important emerging gas arena:
· acceleration in regional gas development following the Santos US$1.25 billion acquisition of ConocoPhillips' upstream and midstream assets in northern Australia and Timor-Leste;
· infill drilling results by Santos on the Bayu-Undan field in Timor-Leste waters demonstrated high initial rates of gas and condensate production from the Jurassic Plover Formation (the reservoir encountered in Chuditch-1), expected to lead to an extension of infrastructure life'
Lots of mention of this as key as well as (other options - Tasi Mane) - but much less mentioned. Chuditch could be the quick saviour of the Timor Leste economy IMO. JV with a major or takeover, drill and into production quickly to Darwin LNG. Keep Santos plant open, keep the money flowing to Timor Leste while they sort out there Tasi Mane issues / putting Sunrise into production! :)
In light of the news, I amend my earlier post to :
'Seems Q1/Q2 next year should be exciting times! Will be interesting to see if any new players arrive with the closing of the bid round!' - edited out the word September! Ha :)
Sounds good to me! :) Bring on the BAGS!
I made well on KOD earlier this year so looking forward to what happens with BOIL! I'm not sure if you're still in VELA hfb but I'm not sure wtf is going on with the SP since the positive trial announcements - seems to have fallen off the shelf!?
Morning guys,
How's everyone doing? :) back home again and monitoring the board! Seems September and Q1/Q2 next year should be exciting times! Will be interesting to see if any new players arrive with the closing of the bid round!
Evening,
I've always thought top 1-2p and settle around 0.5-0.8p range. However, as mentioned look at 88E and others, these AIM stocks have a nice habit of rapid short term growth. If it hits anything over 3p before drilling, I'll be sold and long gone living the mortgage free life! :) :) :)
Evening all,
Good to be back on shore again :) How's everyone? Turns out my 4 week trip was a 7 week trip! Looks like Baron and SundaGas are ticking along in the background nicely.. and biding time! SP won't budge, but there isn't much reason for it too at the moment I guess. Patience..
Hope everyone is ok!
Afternoon all!
Still here, just with very very poor internet offshore, West of Shetlands! Talking to the guys here (client is Super Major from Big 7) about BOIL and in particular the seismic re-processing. A lot more to it and alot more value to SundaGas and Baron with it being re-processed. The reprocessing of the data actually doesn't take that long, initial QC within days and weeks under normal circumstances for results.
What does take time is careful planning and consultation of the data. They need to maximise the potential of the the various prospects and present a fully audited geological analysis to potential JV partners. Identifying locations that maximise reward but minimise risk over the entire field. Saying 'Shell found this over 20 years ago and drilled it - it's proven' isn't enough. SundaGas and Baron need to prove they are not there for a 'free ride' - which they aren't. Reprocessing is all about valuation of the assets. The more evidence they can present, the lower % they will have to sacrifice in a JV, or the higher price they can demand in a buy out. Chuditch looking at over 3TCF is huge - to put it in perspective, Morecambe Bay Gas Field is 7TCF and supplied 15% of domestic gas in the UK while at peak production.
SundaGas is built from Phd, Oxford and Cambridge geologists, mainly ex-employees (including the founder) of Mitra Energy (Now Jadestone). Jadestone has flowing wells and a strong position. The SundaGas team also have proven experience of negotiating highly successful JV agreements at Mitra and previous positions. I believe they are biding there time with regards to TL position on processing of petroleum assets, anticipating and discussing with there partners at TimorGap.
RNS and Allenby Capital report both focus on Bayu Undan depletion and the need for backfill for Santos to Darwin. TL is suffering with funds running out and recent flooding, their economy is crippled. Advanced Energy commencing drilling with Carnarvon near Bayu Undan in TL license area. The focus has always been on Greater Sunrise going to TL for processing, but that doesn't necessarily mean Chuditch aswell by association.
The sovereign petroleum fund relies completely on Bayu Undan. Santos biding time for Chuditch or Greater Sunrise to come online with its new backfill drilling phase of 3 wells. Advanced Energy and Carnarvon drilling nearby. Chuditch showing great potential, 100km from Darwin pipeline. The area is slowly opening up, if not for TL to say so. IMO its only a matter of near future time for Greater Sunrise. Perhaps GS is personal for TL, after the bugging scandal with Australia Gov and Woodside over border dispute.
A strong buy from me always. Had a top up last week at .075
Will probably be a while before I post again but hope everybody is well and good fortune to all and your investments. Looking forward to getting home and digging more into this! :)
Also to add - IMO I think BOIL investment in the area is maybe a pre-emptive strike on further news about unlocking the region.
They have invested while it is 'stagnant'. A risk - yes. Except the directors and major holders don't like risk so there must be something somewhere they are expecting :)
Drawing from my research so far it seems that the industry is still expecting / hoping this to go to Aus or Floating LNG.
New government in TL replacing previous TimorGAP boss.
TL realisation that the Tasi Mane plant is un-economical (billions cost and technical issues)
TL limited cash reserves for O&G and other projects.
TL Realisation that now is the time to develop ASAP before world moves towards renewables.
IMO Woodside writing off Sunrise is theatric to put pressure on TL. I think both sides are digging heels to get the best deal.
BOIL invested 85% in SundaGas partnered with TimorGAP knowing the current situation. SundaGas will have been in discussion with them regarding future.
Allenby Capital Report for January and April 2021 predicts best outcome will be Chuditch to Darwin LNG or Floating LNG via a JV with Santos. Little mention of risk however.
Tasi Mane won't be completed before 2030. Not even a shovel in the ground currently. New Government and Management of TimorGAP tells me a wind of change. Maybe not a complete scrap of Tasi Mane but a system where initial production via floating LNG at Sunrise to kick start? Just a wild guess? Who knows. :)
TL needs to figure this out while they still can. Its 20 years too late currently, now is the time!
Cheers HFB.
She knows our targets that's what is important! Doubt much movement while I'm gone though tbh! :)
Also, I made well on RMM although a smaller investment than BOIL.
Then it tanked due to time delays, so sold all to profit. Keeping my eye on it though! :)
Not far from you. Currently in hotel isolation prior to flying Shetlands tomorrow. I'll be West of Shetlands on a dredging project, deep water. On a supply converted construction vessel so internet will be poor especially with rough swells!
Hence my GF will be looking after the investments! Eeeek
Robert exactly!
I was in at 0.068 originally then took in at 0.09 and 0.12 heavily as I had to leave for offshore work so no guarantee of buying more whilst working and handed over to my partner, I wanted to be in it as it looked like the SP could go anywhere (as it does now). As said, its med-long term and I'm unconcerned by daily changes in SP. A hint of news in Seismic, Regional movement, JV etc will be enough to keep this going :)
Remember SundaGas are partnered with Timor GAP on Chuditch. BOIL earn in to 85% knowing this. Essentially BOIL now partnered with Timor GAP. Regardless of how the field is processed, BOIL would have identified risk of no processing before investing heavily in earn in. They certainly know something with there partnership and they don't seem to be to concerned :)
Remember that SG are partnered with Timor GAP,
SpecP - not to worry, my average SP is just over 0.11, with over £6k altogether.
I'm not worried one bit. This is one to sit back on and watch it unfold, not a quick win. Even small pieces of news will set this off, maybe not over 1p on anything but a JV (then we're talking mega bagger), but depending what you put in, enough for a tidy profit. :)
Again just look at it. Small MCAP, well undervalued, Proven Gas Reserves in Chuditch worth billions if accessible, 85% interest in Sundagas. Its a recipe for a very nice profit, be it mid or long term, don't let the daily grind of SP get you down. The advisors for Baron Oil PLC de-risk alot of the below, depending on the future of TL. Sit back and just read into regional politics / news. Everytime this thing dips below 0.09 I have to stop myself now from taking a cheeky top up!