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Reuters
For sterling, the next Bank of England move is anyone's guess
Naomi Rovnick
Tue, March 19, 2024 at 5:30 AM GMT
By Naomi Rovnick
LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Money market pricing and short-term trading signals make the idea of the first Bank of England rate cut coming in late summer look like a clear bet. Economists and strategists are predicting a starkly different outcome for interest rates and the pound.
Speculators have topped up their sterling holdings, with so-called net long positions having risen to the most on record, according to the latest CFTC data. Swaps markets price the first 25 basis point (bp) cut no sooner than August.
Sterling is the best performing G10 currency against the dollar so far this year.
The BoE is expected to hold rates at a 16-year high of 5.25% this week, but economists anticipate the first cut far sooner than traders expect.
Bruna Skarica, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley, sees softer-than-expected pay data published last week as justifying a rate cut in May.
Barclays and Capital Economics are placing their bets on a cut in June.
Traders are focused on the BoE's hawkish rhetoric, according to Rabobank strategists. Economists are querying whether the central bank's inflation forecasting is once again wrong and how quickly policymakers might turn dovish if the central bank's expectations prove incorrect.
The BoE expects price growth to drop to its 2% target in the second quarter but to rebound to almost 3% later in the year.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, sees headline UK inflation dropping to 1.6% in April and drifting to less than 1% by the end of the year.
"The Bank might switch quite quickly to worrying about inflation being too low," he said. Dales sees the pound drifting down to $1.20 later this year, from close to $1.27 now.
The turning point for sterling could come as soon as Wednesday, when UK inflation data is released.
Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to have dropped to 3.6% in February.
"A print closer to 3.2% could lead the (BoE) to soften its guidance language a bit more," Barclays strategists said in a note to clients, which could liven up market bets for a May cut.
Daniel Frumkin even
They both need to do something major or going to have egg on their faces thinking they got a steal at 30p
Might get some cheaper than D Franklin & Gilinski
🤣🤣
No more than D Franklin deserves
I will share your thoughts with Gilinksi see what he thinks...maybe he's scheming to get the other half for like 20p or lower!
I'm sure he will not like 2nights sp close
The fine is peanuts
Surely that is not causing such a drop in sp?
Asperger1
what gaps have we that might get filled
An increase in buyer demand and stronger house sales during March have combined to push the average UK home’s asking price up by a further £5,279 to almost £370,000, as the market picks up after a “muted 2023”.
According to the UK’s biggest property website, Rightmove, this month’s 1.5% price growth is notably higher than the historical March average of 1%, and is the biggest monthly increase for 10 months.
stp
is a pompous **** & indulgence self serving 5anker
a man who loves immigrants but would not like to live with muslims as you said your self.
i really do not like this poster
MV
And again this last couple of weeks, has exposed the hypocrisy of the Labour higher echelons , buy your council house and make a profit, Angela Rayner the anti-right to buy MP.
And the hypocrisy of Rishi family money kept well out of the UK to avoid inheritance tax, his wife must be the only Indian immigrant not to want a British Passport!
PMSL :-)
MV
I for one am waiting for it to drop
I on the other hand is waiting for a rise going into 11 April
50p was always going to be the 1st hard area to crack
Maybe a retest lower down before next go at getting past 50p
Xwave10
I was going to mention that but thought another waste of time poster on all BB
LTI
So are Lloyds going to get any thing ?
That all i would like to know
Or will they be getting rid of head count only ?
LTI
What's the answer :-)
Dumb Q
Do Lloyds get the £6 Billion
"Rothesay acquires £6 billion Scottish Widows bulk annuity portfolio from Lloyds Banking Group".
Glowacki
You put a sell at top of your post
so you own no Metro shares correct
But then if my auntie had 8lls she's be my uncle.
Surly some of the problems lies with the CFO & to bring up 2+2 =4 not 7
The CEO should go also as has the old CFO
Due to one off factors … namely the need to stop outflows from last year." So again. break that down. We can see that the bank lost £1.5b of current accounts which cost 0%
Yes the outflow was due to media news that Metro was / needed bailing out/brought out.
So yes people panic when there money is in danger
I know i would take my money out but hopeful things have calmed down & with these New branch's opening up North Metro can start saying good bye to the passed
Yes if there were no outflows due to News That Metro going bust they may have turned a profit
Meanwhile, think about demanding accuracy whilst being sloppy about stating Q4 losses … these were due to one off factors … namely the need to stop outflows from last year.
Yes if there were no outflows due to Metro going bust they may have turned a profit