Member Info for PortfolioPower

I3E shares 11% down today as the market takes profits on the back of lower y/y production guidance, which was due to i3’s slowdown in investment over the recent winter period in response to falling commodity prices. This follows recent improvements to i3’s balance sheet strength and liquidity position (and stock price) over the last few weeks following the $25m sale of a non-core royalty package and a new $75m credit facility by a major Canadian Bank.

This enables i3 to significantly expand its fully funded capex programme as it targets a ramp-up in drilling activity that balances growth, financial discipline, and a sustainable long term-dividend, all while positioning the Company to commence its high-impact Simonette Montney pad development drilling early next year.

Watching closely after todays dip back to 11p

Quarter div looks attractive

Broker note 21.2p

broker report

Guided 2024 exit production of 20,250-21,250 boe/d reflects the back-end loaded nature of the company’s expected drilling effort – with annual production guidance for 2024 in the range of 18,000-19,000 boe/d. We see the company’s 2024 drilling efforts culminating in strong production growth into winter 2024/2025, just in time to capture the robust

natural gas prices expected for that period. Critically, the futures market for North American natural gas has found its floor and, based on the futures market, gas prices can be expected to increase significantly in the mid-term.

We are adjusting the basis of our fair value estimate to i) use our 2025 (vs. 2024) debt adjusted cashflow (“DACF”)

estimate as the denominator for our 5x EV/DACF valuation and ii) align our gas price forecasts to the futures market.

We also highlight that the value accretive disposition of non-core royalty interests for $US 24.8m announced on

17 April 2024 had built upward backpressure into our fair value estimate, which we flagged at the time. As a result of these changes, we are increasing our fair value estimate for i3 Energy to 21.2p from 16.2p

i3 Energy confirmed its commitment to pay its annual dividend of 1.0260 p/sh (via four quarterly dividends of 0.2565 p/sh). We highlight the generosity of the resulting 8.2% dividend yield based on the company’s closing price yesterday of 12.5p

Gas prices are expected to strengthen dramatically based on the futures market pricing. Oil prices are robust and likely to strengthen further in our opinion. We believe that i3 Energy has consolidated and is now maintaining its balance sheet in

preparation for scaled up growth in order to produce into a significantly higher natural price. Our updated fair value estimate of 21.2p reflects our positive appreciation of i3 Energy’s judicious strategy, combined with the inherent benefits of significantly rising natural gas prices in North America

Apologies.... Dai has also definitely called this 3 day rule on a few shares!!!!

MM's explained

https://www.shiftingshares.com/sets-setsqx-seaq/

And............beat the MM's 3 day strategy discussed on here previously

https://howtotrade.com/trading-strategies/beat-the-market-maker/

Think Horult & Trojan & Kev have used this 3 day MM rule with some solid success previously..

The thing is.... MM's don't need to report.

They are free to trade too... and my god when you see crazy volume spikes.. be sure that they are in the mix and looking to take full advantage of the unsuspecting PI.

Tree shakes are also a real thing (especially ahead of news).... but 90% of the time you see posters referring to a 'tree shake' after a volume spike and its just the market offloading.... lol.

@Prof

Agreed, interested in the mention of Australia in the updates & new technical experience in this area and Gervais Heddle getting involved.

Once news lands wouldn't surprise me to see the SP pretty much instantly double and then go on a decent run as the herd arrives.

These micro cap valuations are always the ones to see the most violent re-rates when the market wakes up to good news so sensible move imo accumulating whilst there is still a chance to grab a few below the price GH & Co paid for their shares.

BHP proposes takeover of Anglo American in mining mega-deal

Combination would bring together two of the industry’s largest companies and comes as copper demand soars

https://www.ft.com/content/9141eee7-825a-41d7-913d-49e8c12e76db

BHP proposes takeover of Anglo American in mining mega-deal

Combination would bring together two of the industry’s largest companies and comes as copper demand soars

https://www.ft.com/content/9141eee7-825a-41d7-913d-49e8c12e76db

Highlights

§ E38/3775 covers more than 50km of strike length of the highly prospective Ernest Giles Yilgarn Craton Archean greenstone belt, with very limited previous exploration

§ The existing land access agreement covers the new tenement and allows on-ground activities this year as part of Greatland's broader Ernest Giles Project program

§ Geologically, the complexity of the structure on the Mount Smith tenement combined with favourable lithologies, makes it ideal for the formation of structurally controlled orebodies as seen throughout the Eastern Goldfields

Greatland Managing Director, Shaun Day, commented:

"The granting of the Mount Smith tenement at our Ernest Giles prospect more than doubles our exploration ground in the underexplored and highly prospective Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia.

"Ernest Giles has been a priority project for Greatland, and especially so since agreeing land access last year. Accordingly, we are delighted to increase the size and prospectivity of our ground there which enhances our opportunity for a discovery at Ernest Giles.

"We are busy working on an updated Ernest Giles exploration program, incorporating geophysical surveys at Mount Smith. Our intent is to commence a substantial drilling program on the Meadows prospect at Ernest Giles in the second half of this year."

@dai,

I think yje answer to those questions in order is

Yes, yes &... probably!

The natives are getting restless over on ORR.

But it's nowt to do with the gold grades...

More to do with their funder..

Funnily enough..... there has been a shareholder fallout over at UFO over a similar arrangement.

I mentioned ORR over on KAV yesterday as KAV are where ORR were prior to their maiden JORC albeit KAV do have more money that they can control how and when its spent.

Rock chip samples are never a fair representative of true grade as you are somewhat cherry picking vs drill core assays which give a representation across the full width of the intersections which is why drill core samples can be used in resource modelling, wheres soil and grab samples are used to identify potential drill targets.

Those results at ORR certainly confirm they are hunting in the right place!

@Dai

Well It's bounced 10% up from the lows.

just watching it atm.

I noticed our neighbours lifezone metals flew up 15% yesterday and their market cap is now £618m

Vs our £1.5m market cap here.

Once the BoD restructuring is complete, I'm looking forward to the media and PR as developments here are flying well under the radar at present.

GLA

@Prof

Certainly intriguing to see who they bring in.

Given we are advised that they ate 'well advanced' it isn't likely to be long until news lands here shortly and we find out.

I do like the idea of a 'Dream Team' of Board members who have been involved with companies that have gone onto 100 x bag in the past.

Certainly wouldn't rule out the likes of PJ, Gervaise Heddle and Co repeating something similar from this crazy low valuation.

Https://audioboom.com/posts/8492821-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-african-pioneer-martyn-churchouse-group

The thing with 88e is I guess is whether this placing will be a bit like when PANR raised 22m last May and everyone was annoyed as they raised on the lows... so then the SP drifted down further..... then when good news finally landed the SP was so low at that point its flown back up 200% recently.

Hard to say, but I'll be following it closely.

Either way.... they still keep being given the money.

Raise, raise and raise again. :-)))

Must admit that made me chuckle

He is right though..

It's a good start and they have lots of targets to go at.

Ultimately they will need to focus on the very best prospects and then start to do some definition drilling to work up an initial Maiden Resource Estimate.

Once they have that initial JORC resource with further exploration target upside will should firmly underpin the share price at far higher levels.

ORR managed to model up their initial resource of 375,000oz Au from a fairly modest drill program of

Just 6,685 metres of drilling across 54 holes. With a 1km strike length to a max depth of 264m.

Since they modelled that drill data from the 54 holes into an initial pit shell model and set out how they hope to repeat this again it has really helped to push the SP up over the past 6 months.

If BT can work towards identifying a number of potential pit shells and then just get one modelled up with the prospects of further multiple zones to develop the SP will take can of itself and many other funding options will open up to expand the company at scale.

Https://zakstraderscafe.com/rns-hotlist-april-23-avacta-baron-ben-ecr-88-energy-helix-orosur-power-metal/9207/