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There is a couple like SML on my radar atm

Junior Exploration sector in general been taking a good kicking recently.

Ones that are well capitalised to ride the storm or with easy access to cash without severe dilution should do well. Need to pay close attention to price movements in the underlying commodity prices and upcoming newsflow.

Looks like another clueless poster opened a short at the bottom of the trading range and now getting burnt

Oh no its going up... doh! :-))

WTI crude down to $68bbl

Severe takedown over the past three sessions

That $120bbl looks like a nasty spike on the charts now.

Lower oil prices should have a bigger impact on cooling inflation.

The Fed still raised rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 5%-5.25% and said it would pivot to making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, opening the door to a pause after this. Both were broadly expected by markets.

Gold at its highest since April 14th at $2035/oz

Nice tick up into close

WTI crude down to $70 bbl

SP at a near 30% discount to the recent year high.

Silver having bounced up to $25 from $20 over a similar period.

Looks like FRES is back in the buy zone for a few tranches around these levels.

GLA

If RKH breaks the top of that recent range could get interesting

They are forever 'on the cusp' of their settlement, but at some stage should come through and talk of first oil in 2026 seems to be exciting their BB again.

Troajan

ORR moving nicely today.

Think the recent directors buy was a clue a deal (or possibly 2) may land over there this quarter.

Dai

Maybe ask the question over on the AMC bb what they all think the SP will be after the dividend has been paid out?

What cash will be left in the company?

It'll probably start some arguments. :-)

You will find there is occasionally opportunities like this where you can buy a share and get all of the value of your purchase returned to you + some profit on top and still hold all the shares which you can then go on to sell for whatever they are valued at in the market.

If its the easiest way for the BoD to get their cash out of the company following the sale of an asset and they hold a fair chunk of shares then it will no doubt happen

Tro might remember the special divi that BRH declared at 45p back in 2020 when they were trading around 19p when announced.

You could literally double your money and still hold all the shares,.many did and the SP went on to be aramped up to 100p+ :-)

Thata an extreme example

Only on AIM :-)

@Dai

You are looking for a potential special dividend arbitrage situation.

With capricorn the payment has been baked into the SP for ages. Hence why the SP hasn't risen

Generally the opening SP on the day it goes ex div just gaps down to the prior days market cap close less the value of the distribution so it gaps down immediately on open.

That all said....

There are occasionally special dividend arbitrage situations that can arise in the small cap space. Usually they only arise because the company has a poor track record of delivery hence the SP doesn't fully reflect or attribute the full value what they say they are going to pay.

There is such one special situation in play atm with AMC - AMUR Minerals

They have RNS they are going to pay a special dividend of 1.8p representing a distribution of their cash to shareholders and the SP is presently 1.69p

So technically not only is a small arbitrage avaliable to those buying at 1.69p before it goes ex div. Even once they have distributed all the cash the company is any empty shell, there should still be something of value even for the listing alone.

Some at the rampy end think it's worth 2.4p and after the special div the SP will be still 0.6p

I'm not so sure it will trade that high after the 1.8p is paid out.but feel free to take a look.

Not entirely free of risk, hence the present discount to special distribution

Dai,

Not sure there is any catch. Just exhausted holders over there who have had one of the most painfull long drawn out battles to secure money from India that many said would never happen.

As soon as it goes ex div the SP genrally drops buy the amount being paid out (so expect that big drop in SP) I guess holders are then left weighing up whether they still want to hold it longer term

The pump is still on over at BRES.

Company saying that the next round of funding will be at the asset level.

Not sure that will be the case as surely no one can commit the development funding until the DFS is produced and they don't presently have the cash for the DFS.

It's moving nicely though, now 11.35m market cap and if it gets to 20m+ one way or another they may just be able to raise 4m+ needed via equity, potentially a bit extra if they go down the convertible route.

Larger sells continuously being worked in the background as has been seen for the past 6-8 weeks but no longer to the detriment of the present price action.

If they ultimately manage to secure a JV at the asset level, obtain all the mining and export approvals and secure sufficient finance to take them into production with some extra cash for expansion drilling on top it could do a KOD style move.

Won't be in a straight line though so suspect plenty of trading opportunities as each hurdle is navigated.

That's generally the game dai.

Most of these have a never ending supply of behind the scenes financiers that will ensure the party continues ad infinitum.

Key is generally to buy when it looks like all hope is lost and it doesnt look very hopeful for a recovery and the bashers are on & even the most staunch supporters finally throw the towell in.

Think you did well with Orr when all an sundry capitulated at 0.11p

Doubled your money since.

Just don't pick the ones that are actually going bust. lol.

Even the exploration Co's with the poorest of track records can reinvent themselves even after many many multiple dusters and still go on to live to fight another day with a new hotly anticipated new drill target to get the market all revved up again :-))

Quite a few can kicking RNS updates released across a whole raft of punters favourites in the past 48hrs

Seems to be par for the course on AIM heading into May.

I think that's a fair assessment Dai

If you can start thinking along those lines expecially with drill led shares.

Re: JSE, not taken a look since it hit 100p a year ago which I guess was a target for many to take profits and watch from the sidelines. So not really close to the latest goings on.

They cant really afford any more hicups as that would spook the market further.

If they go on to demonstrate consistantly strong production levels that would be a excellent sign.

Cash flow will need to be reinvested wisely.

Not sure what the terms are of their debt facility or what the associated covenants are?

Keep an eye on the production numbers, I always had Montara as a short cycle field where output will naturally start to drop off fairly rapidly once peak production reached.

They need to get their gas on line asap and also bring on board some further near term production assets alongside some blue sky stuff.
to really excite the market.

The next few updates need to remove some of the unknowns around consistency of cash flow, planned cap ex and other potential projects / targets and cost.

Market probably trying to digest everything at present as doesn't like uncertainty which I guess then reads across to a greater difficulty in accurately finding support when the SP has broken down through previous support levels when you pull up the chart.

I have added to watchlist

"Traders financing their own rape"

90/90/90 rule

Think you spotted this one Dai.

You are learning quickly!

dai.

Without insinuating anything on here,. i reckon you may have already figured out a few scenarios

Never really know whether Lombard were holding these shares on behalf of someone else as part of their trade is making loans available against shares.

Everything Lombard Odier has been offloading recently has ended up disastrous for LTH's

WBI
ECHO
ITS

Charts on all the above are a horror show

ITS now just 233k market cap and 0.45p

Was 235p 2 years ago!

in risu veritas