RE: Going by todayβs SP7 May 2025 17:14
TJ_Mac.
Nice summary. Personally, I'd add another possibility to your probabilities.
I speak of a possible deal with the BEE Partners who (combined) owe KZG c.Β£38m by virtue of KZG buying out Tectonic's holding last year. Read about it here:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KZG/acquisition-of-further-stake-in-dbm-whm-qhml6w2rodymf2z.html
The market continues to miss the significant value of this deal. Not only did it increase KZG's share in the HMS project by Tectonic's 10%, as can be seen in the RNS, it also "...includes the newly acquired right to receive an additional Β£38m in dividend payments from future profits..." [effectively a retention of the BEE share of profits until the amount they owe for the Β£38m valuation of the share of SA Ops they were allocated (under SA Law) is paid off] . What a stonking deal, all for peanuts, giving KZG an effective share of profits of over 90% in the early years.
So, for BEE Partners, getting anything out of this looks a long way off BUT, in a recent interview on this site with Sarah Lowther, well worth another full watch - https://youtu.be/0QgSNPM2YJc - but the bit I'm relating to here starts with a question from Sarah around 6:15 mins.
Dennis gets into this subject and how it might pan out if any of the BEE partners want to come to an alternative arrangement in exchange for their stake that would be simpler for them to monetise, should they wish. At the very least, I'd suggest that some discussions must have taken place for Dennis to take the opportunity to even mention this.