RE: Pref Shares17 Sep 2023 15:22
Yes, many will have done the same as you baldmark but I feel many others, including some of the largest, will still be substantial within PFP's new ID.
I'd describe PFP now as a cash shell (also with tax losses), don't think anyone has mentioned a SPAV, merely a SPV and in this context, only for the purpose of harbouring the Pref Shares if and when issued in the even of a successful claim. For sure, it's now a bit of an unknown until we hear more but, to me, looks more than worth a punt at these levels given the new appointment.
I'd see the next action here as coming quite suddenly, probably in conjunction with a suspension while the RTO gets sorted and funded, ahead of a return in its new form and newly priced according to the institutional market's appraisal of the assets and prospects.
In terms of the Pref Shares, I'd add a breadth to your number 2 in that one other possibility (there may be more) is for the BIT outcome to re-award the misappropriated licence back to IMM. In my view, a more likely outcome in that it would take the matter of a cash settlement away from the Moz Gov and place the ball firmly in TZM's court. Given their investment there to date, will they attempt settlement so as to keep it or will IMM gain back the valuable partially developed licence for onward re-sale to the likes of Kenmare? A likely TZM vs Kenmare tussle in these circumstances?
Re your 3, I think there's little doubt that AAG are legally bound by the IMM sale agreement to then pay the agreed share of the settlement sum to PFP and re your 4, personally, I'd say PFP have the same responsibility to their shareholders on the register at the Record Date to divi the spoils up accordingly. Although the actual legals are less clear on this one, I think it's a fair bet that between the legality of the actual sale agreement and AIM Regulation, statements made to the market and all that, Pref Shareholders will get their dues in the event of a settlement.