PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
28th Mar
Expecting a maiden dividend, paid 7.7p before IPO last year
IMO Nailed on for a share buyback
Growth of 25% last year.
I reckon they smash it in 2024. With all the new customer wins last year, remember their retention is 150%, they increase volume over time! And they will have learnt from some mistakes. And then all the other wins throughout 2024.
Cash flow is king, by end of 2024, they should have £140m+ in cash. That is 75% of current market cap in pure cash 🤯🤯 £37.9m FCF in H1 23 ALONE!
And then anytime during 2024 looking forward to Netherlands and US license.
People will look back in 6-12 months, thinking how they missed it.
World Class Management in place
Fundamentals speak for themselves. Just have to look at the RNS's and nothing else.
A quick comparison in fundamentals and valuation with a similar revenue company when comparing H1 23 performance. Its just 1 company, but shows the HUGE Gap in CABP valuation.
Trustpilot
Revenue - £67m
EBITDA - £4.6m
EBITDA % - 6.8%
Profit - Loss of £1.6m
Free Cash Flow - £6m
Market Cap - £750m
CABP
Revenue - £71.8m
EBITDA - £39.9m (8.7x more)
EBITDA % - 57% (8.4x more)
Profit - £23.8 (15x more)
Free Cash Flow - £37.9m (6.3x more)
Market Cap - £192m!! (75% less 🤔 😂)
Yep makes absolutely no sense on every single level, a 5 year old can work it out Lol.
Even if you equalise the market cap for CABP at £750m or £3 a share, it still makes absolutely no sense!!
Huge gaps like this exists when compared to pretty much any other company.
Trustpilot initiated a £20m share buyback 3 weeks ago, CABP will be doing something similar no doubt. TRST have gone from 90p to 180p in 3 months, CABP will see a bigger move IMO, fundamentals are better by many many multiples.
"Stay true to your investment principles and don't be swayed by short-term market noise"
Solid fundamentals and outstanding performance will show through very soon. See you on 26th March 🫡
DYOR
Make it make sense. Lol
FREE CASH FLOW
Assumption - 25% growth in 2024
2022 - £50m (actual)
2023 - £62m (estimate) , H1 23 £37.9m (Actual) - 61% achieved in H1 alone.
2024 - £78m (estimate)
If CABP doesn't move up quickly, predators will be having a look at M&A, share buy backs, something will have to give.
World Class BOD will act soon enough.
Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don’t mean anything to you maybe some of the team’s experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial.
Summary
- CAB Payments is undervalued and trading at a PE of 5 after its recent 72% price decline.
- The company has experienced rapid growth - 79% per year from 2020-2022 and 25% in 2023.
- Their scalable, transparent, and cost effective products have a customer retention rate of 96% and net revenue retention of 150%.
- CAB (Crown Agents Bank) Payments (OTCPK:CABPF) is an undervalued (P/E of 5), rapidly growing (25% YoY), and out of favor (down 72%) global money transfer business hiding within a 191-year-old UK bank.
- Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don’t mean anything to you maybe some of the team’s experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial.
- THE EXPERIENCE, NETWORK AND KNOWLEDGE OF THIS BOARD AND EXECUTIVE TEAM IS MORE IN-KIND TO A $100 BILLION DOLLAR LARGE CAP THAN A $250 MILLION DOLLAR MICRO-CAP
- CAB’s management team is aligned with shareholders as they IPO’d with a clean balance sheet, outside of a 7% minority interest
- CAB’s payment and FX products have multiple advantages over the incumbent correspondence banking system that accounts for 80-85% of the cross-border payments occurring today. CAB products are scalable, transparent, fast, and cost less
- If CAB’s product has a durable advantage, they are operating in a market estimated to be $56 - $271 trillion dollars and expanding at 7.3% per year. CABs advantage lies in emerging markets, which has a market size of $2 trillion and CAB’s current market share is estimated to be only 1-2%.
- The current valuation appears low and I expect CAB to re-rate higher if they continue to execute and diversify their geopolitical risk. To put their current price into perspective, it is 1/2 the valuation of regional banks (P/E 10), and 1/8 of their fintech payments brethren Wise (P/E of 45) and Shift4 Payments (P/E of 50). Flywire (FLYW) which is not perfect, but a business to business comparison has an expected 2024 P/E ratio of 123
- How long can CAB continue to hold a P/E of 4-5 when their peers are valued 2-24x more. If the re-rating does not occur through investor demand, CAB could buy back their own shares as they are estimated to cash flow more than £50M in 2024 while growing revenue 20-35%.
26th March, tick tock...
Pound for pound I don't know of any other FTSE Premium Listed Company that has a better EBITDA Margin, Profitability Margin and FCF Margin than CABP. If anyone knows of another company, would love to hear it!
Just look at the facts....
"Dividends
Prior to Listing the Company declared dividends to its shareholders amounting to £5.6 million on 26 April 2023 and £5.7 million on 1 June 2023"
FREE CASH FLOW
Assumption - 25% growth in 2024 & 2025
2022 - £50m (actual)
2023 - £62m (estimate) , H1 23 £37.9m (Actual) - 61% achieved in H1 alone.
2024 - £78m (estimate)
2025 - £97m (estimate)
After 2024, CABP should comfortably have £100m+ in cash. What do you do with the HUGE pile of cash. Reward shareholders.
"Operating free cash flow grew from £12.3 million in the six months ended 30 June '22 to £37.9 million in the six months ended 30 June 2023, demonstrating the strong cash flow that the business has delivered as it continues to scale up, whilst at the same time making investments in intangibles assets of £2.0 million"
You also have to remember with mainly fixed costs, margins, % profitability and % free cash flow should be accelerating as CABP scale up.
Eg. A £10m dividend would be 4p a share, or 5.5%, for a growth company that would be fantastic for starters.
CABP is producing more than enough cash for capital expenditure, spend on growth and capital allocation as dividends/share buyback.
CEO statement
"The industry dynamics continue to be supportive to specialist providers like CAB Payments and our unique proposition and set of strengths positions the Company well to capitalise on the opportunity ahead and deliver increasing shareholder returns into the future."
Chair's comments
"The Board will keep the capital allocation under review"
Look forwarded to the dividend announcement soon. IMO It will come on the 26th March, lets see.
Price until then is incidental, they want panic sellers by shorting a tiny amount! Robbers in suits.
DYOR
@smoothoperator - totally agree.
5 days and £58m wiped off the market cap, mind boggling.
Probably no more than a 5million shares traded in those 5 days, with more than half of them buys LOL.
It's a pure blatant short attack, Premium Listed Company, how is this allowed to happen.
IMO last Friday 2 months close period started before the results on 26th March, so short attack started exactly at that date, shorters are so predictable.
Anyone trading/leveraged totally wiped out for sure.
Very confident CABP will be over 100p well before March 26th.
As the article states, CABP in on a future PE of just 4 LOL Should be at 20+
"It's always darkest before the dawn"
2024 est based on 25% growth
Revenue - £171m
Operating Profit - £68m
Free Cash Flow - -£78m
Current market cap £199m LOL
70% of market cap is simply covered by 2023 & 2024 FCF 🤯
26th March all will be revealed.
As I said super confident of some sort of capital allocation to shareholders in dividends/share buybacks.
Last year CABP paid a special dividend of 7.7p each.
Always DYOR. All the best LTH's patience will win big here, no doubt, 12-18 months and it will easily multibag.
- a regulatory licence application in The Netherlands, which will open up a substantial new sales channel across the EU;
This was previously stated by the CEO, hoping to be issued by the end of 2023, so could land anytime now I guess.
All you need to know, over 100 new clients were signed up last year, and one was Santander Bank, all you need to know, when a major Global Bank sees the clear proposition CABP are offering. This is what the CEO had to say...
Bhairav Trivedi CAB Payments Holdings PLC - CEO & Executive Director
""And then lastly, on your point with Santander and PagoNxt, it is one of the few things that we can talk
about because it's something that's public, and they made an announcement at Money20/20. As you
mentioned rightfully, Santander has been very acquisitive in the payment space with Ebury, et cetera.
They know that we've been working with several of the companies that they have acquired over time, so
they understand our capabilities. They understand our ability to be completely transparent, deliver on
time with amazing pricing.
For them, when they looked at it, they wanted to be with a single consolidated provider of these
services, and that was the most exciting thing for them. It is also the fact that we have a payment
gateway that's better than anything else out there in the market. And that really allows us to be able to
process their transactions at high speed and high volume over time.
So those are really the core drivers. Other than that, they probably like the management team here and
definitely thought we were great guys to work with. But I can't say anything more""
Problem with the Markets summed up in just 2 hours.
CABP is a premium listed company.
However so far today:
Buys £46k vs Sells £41k, so £87k of shares traded in total, more buys than sells..
Yet nearly £20m wiped off the market cap from opening of 97p LMAO makes absolutely no sense, how is this even possible. This is the reason why the LSE is totally broken, there is no market efficiency.
Hence why many companies are leaving the LSE, it's worse than a rigged casino. With no liquidity, HF have total and absolute control, daily price action means nothing, they can swing it whichever way they choose.
FCA should be all over this. If I was a big time criminal, I'd just open a HF, more lucrative and you never get caught ROFL
The HF are crooks and white collar criminals trying to steal PI money every single day.
CABP could finish today past 100p, but the markets should not be moving in this way, it's not a real market.
Rant over Lol What matters is where CABP is at the end of 2024 😉
As CABP are currently valued at a pitiful derisory amount (3x EBITDA, 2x EBITDA/EV), and they are hugely cashflow +ive and profitable, wonder if the BOD initiate a share buyback?
A very good way to show confidence and utilise the cash pile, and reward those that bought in at IPO only several months ago at 335p to drive up the share price. It's a super experience BOD who will want to reward the big holders for their faith in CABP.
In 2024 CABP should be pumping £75m+ in FCF (90%+ cash conversion 🤯), hence they definitely have options. I'm sure some form of capital return announcement to shareholders will be made during 2024, no doubt.
Combing through 2022 accounts, PBT was £44m, FCF was £50m. With only 268 employees, and business having the ability to exponentially expand without huge capital expenditure, fundamental performance will only improve in 2024 and beyond, how fintech works, and hence why the initial IPO value at 335p.
Put it another way FCF in 2022 was £50m, based on 25% growth 2023 est £62m, 2024 est £78m, 2025 est that's £98m, 2023-2025 FCF £238m, more than the current market cap LMAO Ludicrous.
Therefor they are producing PLENTY of cash for investment AND for capital returns in the form of dividend/sharebuyback, and/or no one has mentioned it yet i think, a significant acquisition.
If CABP share price doubles by H1, triples by EOY, I wouldnt even be surprised, it would still look extremely undervalued.
Get a sense hardly anyone is selling (they would be totally mad), hardly any PI interest here which is very good to see, so no one to manipulate here, and funds are slowly and quietly accumulating. Only takes one of them to release the handbrake and we are off 🚀📈
With 25% growth last year, I reckon they will surprise us in 2024, growth will be significantly higher than 25%. Let's see...
Looking forward to 2024/2025
DYOR
One of the main things you like to see when investing in a company
All holding very senior positions at some of the worlds leading organisations. Just some CABP Directors previous roles.
Links to global payment firms, banks, governments, Private Equity Firms, UN etc
Ann Cairns , Chair, Mastercard, Lightrock Private Equity, Member of UK Governments Artificial Intelligence Council, ICE, Astrazeneca, Non Exec Chair at UK Government Department for Business Energy and Industry
Bhairav Trivede, CEO, Finablr, Network International Payment Solutions, Sigue Global Services, Citi Group, McKinsey & Co, Fair Isaac, Providian Bancorp
David Bee, Head of Client Coverage and Global Markets, Citigroup, Deutch Bank, Standard Chartered, Lloyds Banking Group.
Richard Hallet, CFO, Barclays Africa, Absa Capital, RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, PWC
Steven Marshall, Chief Partnerships Officer, Barclays, Standard Chartered, United Nations
David Mountain, Chief Product Officer, CCO of Network International, largest payment processor in ME and Africa. Ogone, global payment gateway, founded Accucard, sold to Lloyds, , Partner at Bain & Company.
David Parker, CIO, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Deutch Bank, Credit Suisse.
Richo Strydom, CTO, Credit Suisse, Deutch Bank, COO at Bankable.
Totally get the one off IPO costs. However just looking at 2024/2025, with the same rate of growth, FCF is on another level 🤯. What do you do with all that cash 🤔😂
For 2023 with 25% growth we can expect..
£70m EBITDA (£40m in H1 Alone)
£54m PROFIT
FCF £62m
That's a PE ratio of just 4
2024 - 25% Growth
£88m EBITDA
£68m PROFIT
FCF £78m
PE ratio of 3.2
2025 - 25% growth
£110m EBITDA
£85m PROFIT
FCF £98m
PE ratio of 2.6
@smallmoves, Perfect summary yesterday, in 18months CABP will be multiples, on firmly on the radar of PE firms as such a low valuation.
This is without any new licenses and substantial growth that comes with it. One of these comes, and it's 🔥.
FY 2022
£55m EBITDA 🤯
£50m FCF 🤯
£43.5m profit before tax 🤯
Totally mind boggling numbers.
The special dividend was not surprising. Cash flow conversion is 90%+ 🤑
Now with 25% growth confirmed for 2023, EBITDA, FCF and profits is only growing, CABP did £40m EBITDA in H1 alone, wonder what dividend we can look forward to? 🤔
A sea of red 🤣 LOL
"Hmmm" the 2 bit spineless trader is here again, are you real, are you a Bot 😂 yes you are the perfect trader, flawless, never seen anything like it ROFL
0.08% of total shares have been traded today! Free float is non existent here, liquidity is tight.
Once even a decent volume comes in, CABP will 🚀🚀 or the licenses that are pending and RNS drops, there will be no stopping. Just watch and learn, it's about the long game.
@asartara
You are the equivalent of greygeorge on the DEC board, the irony 🤣
Don't like FUD on one board, but comes to spread the FUD on another board. Jeez, comical, get a life.
Https://www.financemagnates.com/fintech/equals-group-extends-takeover-deadline-amid-london-fintech-exodus/
Huge Gap from 240p has to close.
All fintechs are under the microscope with the huge undervaluations, no company more undervalued than CABP based on pure facts and fundamentals.
"The Company has a high quality and growing customer base, made up of G10 government entities, some of the world's best known international development organisations, global remittance companies, emerging markets financial institutions and, increasingly, major market banks"
RNS 16th Jan 2024 😉
Not like for like, but comparisons to another Fintech payment company in the news today.
CABP – H1 23
EBITDA - £40M
EBITDA Margin – 57%
Market Cap - £220m
Premium Listed
Equals Group – H1 23
EBITDA - £9.8M
EBITDA Margin – 21.7%
Market Cap - £228m
Aim listed
Can anyone see the huge disparity LOL
Just shows how disjointed and broken the markets are.
And to top it all off, the irony is, Equals Group think they are hugely undervalued (rightly so), and a US PE firm is looking to take It private!
How much is CABP really worth??? Based on pure fundamentals, should be worth 3-4x more than Equals for starters.