Member Info for PlantPower

1. bigAl = 29th July 07:00 hrs
2. Badmashy = 22nd July 07:00 hrs
3. Clark8004 = 23rd July 1200 hrs
4. PlantPower = 6th Aug 07:00hrs

@EthioEthio, I’ll take any blue these days!

PP

FDA RNS sweepstake with the winner getting a bottle of something off DB?....

1. Clark8004 = 29th July 1200 hrs
2. ST = 24th July (intra day)
3. Mcorny87 = 28th July 7am.
4. Car3y = 27th July.7am
5. LB28 = 22nd july 7am
6. Andymilloyd = 27th July 7am
7. Technick = 21st July 3pm
8. Tolster = Survey says....
9. BigBench = 27th July 1pm
10. Starrenstoff = 17th July 4.30pm
11. BigAl = 28th July 8am
12. PlantPower = 7th Aug 8am

Missed anyone?

PP

Noted question on GDR’s groundbreaking preventative deafness test (AIHL project) earlier today - below link well worth a read - but headline from sales/rev perspective for UK:

- 90k tests per year
- £60 per test
- Potential UK Rev = £5.4m per annum
- Didn’t recheck presentation for potential global sales + margin (will check 2mo)
- Per recent RNS, still optimistic of Autumn commercialisation launch with Inspiration Healthcare (Over 50 country product distribution network)

Feel good stats:
- Save 180 babies per year from profound hearing loss
- Save NHS £5m per year (inc cost of test)

Other interesting info (not heard about before, so expect long term prospect only):
-“ rapid bedside test for stroke patient to detect the one in 10 patients whose DNA makes them unable to metabolise clopidogrel, the common anti-platelet medication, and therefore have significantly worse outcomes.”
- “Models suggest similar tests could prevent several thousand of the 100,000 strokes suffered by people each year in the UK” - unclear if this bullet is non GDR related tests, so may not be relevant.

Plus, difficult not to admire Monsieur Bud for bringing this to the market....

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/baby-deafness-gentamacin-test-genedrive-neonatal-care-nhs-a9294411.html%3famp

Ps - @ Safy great research on behalf of the Budites (!?!) earlier today, effort greatly appreciated.

Indeed - may explain continued pressure on SP this week...

As of 14th

Position increase 3.1% to 3.5%

Position increase 3.1% to 3.5%

69.5p paid - strange old game.

Fishing trip? Or just demand / supply doing it’s unpredictable thing.

Not sure we’ll find any answers soon....

PP

Welcome @Sharebel - QQ, at current prices, where do you see most upside in next month - GDR vs CTEA?

Both seem oversold with plenty of upside - clearly invested in GDR, but tracking CTEA too. Appreciate cross board question - but truly interested in comparative view (beats same old same old discussion about DB / GDR lack of execution / poor comms..)

PP

@Toffy, wowsa, really has been a 360 roller coaster.

I’m still positive (what choice do we have!?!) - clearly lots of us are locked in at this price, but in all seriousness, why sell now at this stage and miss the upside and the news flow we are all so craving. Even if it’s just to leave the BudExpress (May need to rename that) at the next stop and not continue the ride....

APPROVALS, APPROVALS, APPROVALS!

PP

Reiterating what we all know but SP will rise on approvals, with sales being confirmed immediately or shortly thereafter.

For those in already / high avg’s, it’s just disappointing that rise will be off lower base, but as we know with this stock, it can move pretty quick, granted sentiment is not what it was, but per sales / rev forecasts & USP’s, strong demand, expect plenty of mileage......

.........once those pesky approvals land!

Take a look at previous SWOT post for pros / cons.

PP

@clark8004, showing as Sell as delayed reported trade from yesterday at a price which at time of reporting today was under SP, so printed as Sell or Unknown depending which site you use.

Would have been reason SP increase slightly today to fill, with Sells hoovered up / offsetting Sell pressure today on SP.

PP

Naughty MM’s, we thought today’s action was a bit odd.

Delayed 70k vol trade from yesterday- got a good price too...67.88. Nice.

PP

GULP - 0.7% up.... anyone else feeling faint??!?

PP

Good spot - and agreed, considering MM’s not needing much of an excuse to lower recently, seems odd - let’s see what comes through post close.

Although - back in Red now....we need to steadily weaned off, not ready for Blue yet ;0) ...maybe just a smaller % drop to start with.

PP

....2k.

Plus calf’s not far off using the 1563 kits per week forecast (Below 2020 comparison):

- 22 weeks if we start selling in Aug (bit of time to enable are ‘assumed’ approvals to land)
- 22 x £1.5m = £33m Rev (vs my £28.8m) / 34.3k Kits (vs my 30k)

PP

1st set off figs based on 2020 forecast.

To add - I think to achieve 25% of Novacyt sales is quite conservative all things considering.

PP

Collated reposts from wkd:

‘’Per RNS, 3 prime targets; India, Africa, US:

- India = 10k (incl original 1k - expect that’s the source)
- Africa = 3k
- US = 15k
- EU = 2k (based on expanded CE approval)

Total = 30k kits / £28.8m Rev / £17.28m Profit

Circa 25% of Novacyt Rev achieved / ordered.’’

‘’Ok - so building this out further to extrapolate to annual sales / rev / profit based on my estimates:

- 79.9k kits / £68m Rev / £40.8m Profit

Plus other products:
- 2021 Estimate in ‘19 year end report = £4.2m
- DoD Pathogen Detection Units / Assays + RNR-1 Assay for AIHL / HCV-ID Kit
- Challenges in HCV market due to Covid so will deduct arbitrary £1m
- So £3.2m Rev / Profit (use 50% as proxy) £1.6m

POC COVID Test
- Don’t worry not forgot, expected end of year (some expect earlier - me include)
- H2 Rev??? Need help here as blind to any financials but going to guesstimate circa Rev £20m conservatively / Profit (use 50% as proxy) £10m

Total 2020 July ‘20 to June ‘21 = Rev £91.2m / Profit £52.4m

Thoughts - challenge away!

Plus, anybody got a preference on valuation method so we can square back to projected SP?’’

PP