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It’s an absolute bargain whilst it’s still below the placing price. Volumes should soon start to build ahead of news imho.
A pull back today was both anticipated from an overheated TA perspective, and welcome insofar as I managed to bag another 100k at a bargain price just before the close. I’ll add another tranche tomorrow if the share price shows any further weakness since next week should get really interesting here imo.
Well the CEO has indicated in his recent interview that the CPR for project III should be delivered by the 7th January, but it remains unclear as to whether that is his deadline for first reporting it to the Georgian State Agency for Oil and Gas (which courtesy and protocol might dictate) or the date by which shareholders will be updated by RNS. I raise this point as I’ve just established from a Facebook post that public servants in Georgia will be on holiday from 3-5th January, so unless it has already been delivered to the SAOG, we might have to wait just a little longer to see it.
Hopefully the wait will be worth it given what the CEO has said about the Chinese interest and the CPR being the trigger for farm out negotiations.
Thanks for the updates and the link to the video iky. They start talking about GLR about half way through it and it is well worth listening to.
12 trades showing so far on the Advfn monitor so there must be something amiss with this site’s data feed. Current spread is 1.15 to 1.20.
Thanks Bobby. I’ve always worried about Block’s drilling team having the expertise to deal with the more challenging drilling conditions in the project III area, whereas CNPC have an excellent CV in drilling deep wells and dealing with downhole operations.
“OK I’ve been deep into my research this evening and am now convinced that Block are walking with giants here. Let’s start with this statement from the latest RNS:
“Growing industry interest in Georgia is also spurring an increase in exploration activity. OMV is planning to acquire 3D seismic in the Black Sea, and China's commitment to the country has been underlined by the presence of a private Chinese firm using services supplied by CNPC, the Chinese state-owned integrated energy group, in an onshore location between the Black Sea and Block's Project III.
CNPC has been contracted to deliver a firm work programme comprising two deep wells, using a modern rig and a full suite of integrated services. Positive results from this work programme would have an instant read-through to the value of Project III, which stands to benefit from access to a drilling rig and integrated services capable of drilling deep directional wells promising to reduce mobilisation and demobilisation time and costs”.
Now what’s not apparent from the version of the RNS on Advfn is that if you check the version on the LSE site you will see that it contains pictures of Paul Haywood standing next to the CNPC senior management at their Georgian well site.That would not have happened unless there had already been a significant amount of interaction between the two companies.
Now let’s have a look at just how big CNPC are. This article is a good starting point: hTTps://factsanddetails.com/china/cat13/sub85/item319.html and it contains this statement:” China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is China’s largest oil producer and oil company, producing about two thirds of China’s crude oil. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in Beijing, it is the world’s largest oil producer by revenue and production volume. The company was No. 4 on the Fortune Global 500 list with $284 billion in revenue in 2021 and has about 432,000 employees. PetroChina is the listed arm of state-owned CNPC. It was created in 1999 by the Chinese government to secure more oil for that nation's booming economy. The Chinese government owns 86 percent of its stock and China uses nearly every drop of oil PetroChina secures domestically. [Source: AP, Investopedia]”
So let’s return to the RNS now and this statement:” Following continued development during 2023, Project III was declared a gas resource of strategic importance by the State of Georgia, and Block has concluded it is now ready to support a farm-out at the asset level”. A farmout of project III to CNPC or its subsidiary in Georgia would attract massive worldwide publicity and the volume of stock traded here would just go through the roof. Now if the first well to be drilled by the CNPC is successful it’s easy to see why little old Block Energy with its tiny market cap could soon be swallowed by a giant.”
The reason the spread is so wide is that several market makers have been caught with their pants down and are desperate to get hold of some cheap stock. As long as buying continues they will be forced to move off their perches soon enough.
As I’ve said before it’s always been about the gas in projects III and IV if the longer term shareholders are going to see a decent return on their investments here, and this should deliver it in spades. The next catalyst is the revised CPR which Haywood has recently stated would be delivered no later than 7th January. Then it’s going to be a busy first quarter in 2024 so what’s not to like about that?
This article explains how the process works: https://www.netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/netl-file/co2_eor_primer.pdf and has already been worked on by Block’s partner in Georgia: https://www.opc.co.uk/projects/gardabani-rustavi-carbon-capture-and-storage/
And so the plot thickens….
Wrong Sarah, you numpty. Over an investing career of almost 40 years, I learnt that the best time to buy a stock is when it first starts to rise from a grossly oversold position and sell when the RSI hits the high 80s or 90s as many AIM listed tiddlers do when the mania stage sets in. Anything under 40 is clearly in the buy zone and that’s why I added 400k today.
Chesh, using an interval of 14 on the Advfn chart produces an RSI of only 10 whether it’s over a period of 3 months, 6 months or a year, so maybe it’s faulty but it must be blindingly obvious that the stock remains in deeply oversold territory and therefore has massive potential upside on the right news.
Chesh, I don’t dispute the moving averages but the RSI depends on what period you put in the box. 12 or 14 is generally more realistic and both produce a lower RSI than you are quoting on the chart I ran last night. Regardless of that the stock clearly has plenty of room to move to the north before the RSI gets overheated.
FWIW the 400k buy was mine on a T20 settlement. I had to use a private client stockbroker for that one and a telephone trade. My account manger had to call three different market makers to get them as neither of the first two had any stock, so this could move very sharply now on any decent news imo.
Chesh, I had a look at the charting option on this site and it is crap. Advfn’s is much better and really shows how oversold this stock is.
The time to buy is when everyone is fearful and sentiment is at an extreme low, as represented by the RSI, not when the world and his wife is buying a stock imo.
From the Advfn board:
“From a chart perspective this is now a true capitulation with the RSI down to 10: https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_wrap.php?epic=LSE%3ABLOE&name=&type=4&size=2&period=5&ind_type1=4&ind1_1=12&ind_type2=2&ind1_2=12&ind_type3=8
Looking back at the chart over the last 12 months the RSI has been here several times before but it and the share price has generally bounced back strongly from such lows. That is what I expect to happen when the CPR for the gas in project III is released, and I would not be at all surprised to see some build up in advance of that.”
Re: the Zambian cadastre this is good news: https://www.mmmd.gov.zm/?p=2654
From the Advfn board: The Skipper12 Dec '23 - 13:18 - 13072 of 13072 Edit
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Thanks Spangle, I see the lemmings are still jumping off the cliff here and the market cap is now only £4.9m, compared with total assets of £30.62m at the end of last year. With the success of the project I wells, the recently completed CPR for Dido Lilo, and the much bigger one to come for project III by January 7th never has a company been so vulnerable to a hostile bid!
I wonder if that is something which might eventually emerge after the company addresses the Turkish conference next week.
From Advfn:
Leonard D11 Dec '23 - 16:04 - 13066 of 13066 Edit
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Thanks Skipper, I’ve added some more tranches on the drop today as the market cap of only £5.1m is just ludicrous for a company which has grown its revenues in every year since 2018: hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/block-energy-BLOE/financials
and has massive gas resources ready to be exploited in its projects III and IV with a NPV of $63m.
It is presenting at a big oil and gas conference in Turkey next week and one would hope that speaking to a professional audience will attract a lot more interest for this off the radar stock. Interest that will ultimately lead to another farm out or possibly a buyout given its current valuation.