Member Info for Pipk

AHT income streams do no rely on income streams from Oil Field Ops or Canadian Rentals to the extent it does for its main competitor in US, <90% lower by some estimates......To say AHT is oversold is an understatement.......USD exchange rate also adds to the sparkle for UK investors GLA.

Thanks to the vote things looking good for RDSB, this and rest of action around crude prices should see RDSB SP climb before the Divi is due......so all in all share holders should benefit....get the duplication out the way and synergies in place anyone holding RDSB will be on a roll....crude can only stay low so long......even as I type price is heading up...GLA and well done Van.

1. Info on Meetings to discuss prod cutbacks between any of the main players will remain totally confidential, the likelyhood that meetings / discussions have or are taking place must be high and pressure increasing....it only takes two to tango. 2. Tanker contango storage to increase over next few months should help SP. 3. Many of BG IT systems incl. Safe System of Work are virtually identical to that Shell uses. 4. With prospect that Shell takes number 1 spot in majors league table by 2020, gives Shell an excellent chance to move on to even greater things. .....GLA

A positive BG vote above 95% should see another good lift for RDSB soon, add any moves by main producers to discuss cut backs, US holding off of on rate hikes and Draghi plans for QE in Euro Zone being pushed along, will all help to add to the SP......whilst not of great value in the bigger picture, retail product sales should also be adding to bottom line.

Agree this is an undervalued share by some margin, 195 should be achiveable March, with 220 soon to follow if Draghi gets his QE package up and running.

Looking good for another 5 % Monday......China calming down, Draghi thinking / plans a little clearer, lower rig count in US, shorters bailing out fast, GLA.

Looks as though Draghi called it right in Davos...if he gets implementation of QE plans then 11 GBP Is well within reach....if China transition stays on track then could be more.....although in the case of AHT not as significant a factor as US Manufacturing output or interes rates. GLA.

May take 12-18 mths but once BG in the bag, business restructured, Brent back to 65, Zdivi kept to at least 4% & promises mad by Zdraghi kept! we should see SP back to 19.5 / 19.75 GBP........40% lift on current price looks achievable......put in Significant Geopolitical upset to supply that doesn't affect RDSB and could even get to the 20 mark.......if TLW can leap as it has on a one horse (TEN) bet and hope of a T.O. then RDSB must be a betting certainty and offers better protection from the short term ups and downs....GLA.

As the supply of crude is greater than the current world needs ( poss for the next 2 yrs or longer), finding and promoting alternative uses may help the situation or grab more market share......needs R&D supported and the outside the box thinkers on the case. Imagine food from crude ! Free tank petrol/diesel every 2-3 months, Free oil change, heating oil Free fill once per year, more goods manufactured from oil.....or goods made that can be stored and then reused to release energy...o.k. that's the Barnes Wallace or is it the Grommit way, now to Friedman and Kinsley.....the fix would be do it the Saudi way, drive crude to below 20 USD and shake out the wheat from the chaff, prob need a dozen hi profile fallers and another round of projects cut, plus a few refineries closed or moth balled.....then with supply - demand on an even keel, who knows.....at moment looks as though getting in and out fast is only way you can make a buck...if investing for long term 10yr + I see the worst is yet to come and a bottom at around half its current value and a divi of 21/2% ( at that level it will of course have been a crash to best all previous crashes). Now there's a thought, let's have a democratic vote and just stop / block oil exports from you know where ! that would do it.....and not too many would give a jot....well today looks like another dead cat bounce and sellers will be at the table...... Oh nearly forgot watched Di Caprios new film today......puts the drop in shares into perspective against life's trials and tribulations.....GLA.

A reduction in price by Saudis is an interesting thought......short term could really rattle the barrel and give them a bigger slice of the pie ! Sufi saying.....'.you make your plans and the world moves on around you' hopefully the world moves in the right direction for RDSB sooner rather than later....GLA.

AHT recent rental activities appear to be on the increase due to increased activities related to holiday season now being over, pickup in contractor activities outide the E&P / Mining Sectors, just needs government contracts to pickup ( Draghi can help here in Europe, with good feel combining back in US thanks to Hillary, also China not having the landing many were thinking......6.5+ % even given it may only be 4.5-5.0% ) and AHT should see some noticeable movement upwards.....good thing is the divi should safe enough for next 2-3 yrs, .at least better than my bank.

Once the deal is done Shell can get after influencing / advising on a variety of matters that may assist Opec and Non Opec counties reduce Prod.......5-10 % would do it, hopefully Bob at BP and the Exxon team will also be there at the table to assist........internal politics aside ( if that's ever poss with oil ) plus a weakening global outlook, will make all parties incl. Russia, Iraq, Iraq, Ven and U.S. get things together....before it gets totally beyond their control I.e. 10$ Bbl. In meantime the mid cap oilies look as though banks are tightening the stings so must be further consolidation for them to durvive.....33cents on Dollar for these assets may be as good as it gets........who knows !

If Omani Oil Minister has raised the subject of Oman being willing to cut prod by 5-10 % should others be willing to make similar cuts......then there is a very good chance others are now thinking along these lines and/ or discussing at high level ( with exception of the U.S. Shale Industry.) Might take 6 mths to get a consensus and another 6 to hatch a plan....but looks possible. In meantime Euro QE may help Shellls price hold on at 1250...with a reduced divi, if World Markets / China goes belly up then can see price of 8.50 with a 2- 2.5 % divi.........for a year or so......this would scatter the small and mid caps.......leaving only the 7 or so majors and state run company's.....goodbye PMO / TLW etc. Service company's would also see major reductions 25-40 %..........better find that old P. Bond I may need the fiver soon.....

15% drop possible if wider market contagion kicks in this coming week.....even further should a 2008 panic set in over short term.....similar if oil drops below 20 Bbl......may be Saudis will become the peace maker and bring forward a solution / end to the suffering thru prod cuts........China not looking to be much help so needs something big to stop or should I say hold the falls from going even further......for me AHT still a good long term bet and one good thing with Iran out the Nuke race the worlds a safer - happier place GLA.

Another week like the last and a Bbl looking to drop to 25...1250 then a possibility.......and must be the opp of the decade.....Canada selling a Bbl at 15 on news today, add in the Iran/ Iraq prod, reduced sales to Far East/ China, drop in the mid caps kicking in, think Ben needs to reduce divi before Capital is run down too far to support any glitches re. BG takeover.....3.5 % would make sense.......as would cuts at head office in Den Haag, then come 3 yrs time we're back on track.....10% in your portfolio would be a good level to aim for now....?GLA.

With oil selling at 15 USD / Bbl in Canada, Saudi discounting, Iran soon back in the game to tune of 500,000. + Bbls, Libya a possible addition, China reducing imports, Goldman flagging 25 Bbl.......Storage St the point prod had to be shut in, US stocks down 9-10 % in Jan 2016, makes you realise WG with its long term contracts are a good place to dig for recovery in say 3-4 yrs.......short term though it looks as though a further fall in service company prices is more than likely....if they can pay a divi of 1.5-2 % over next 2-3 years then we'll wotth 10% of any portfolio.....I know it's not the same sit as 2008 but 425 would be a great price as a bottom here , say around March - June ! then up in the 750 region down the line......

If Shell get go ahead for the BG merger then a cut in divi to say 3% would make good sense to support Opex / Capex over next few years......and still better than returns from many others. 25 US / Bbl looking a good bet in next 4-8 weeks thanks go Iran - China.

Aussies approve BG deal......Oil Price risining.......Far East markets on the up........weather getting colder......divi payment soon......add to the ongoing cost cutting and things look to be on track.

Comment by Jupiter Fund Manager interesting......will be good to see what he has to say 12 mths after the takeover is completed......

Shell's stated saving on taking over BG at 3.5 billion USD seems to be a conservative estimate.....the spilt of gas from oil management looks to be a good move that should get projects on that side moving along nicely and ready for increased prices late 16 early 17.