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Hi Sarah, when you talk about Castaway, you mean a trader who ramps when he’s bought back in. We certainly should have all traded, but the fear of missing out is always there.
By comparison I think traders must set a gain they’re happy with & sell, irrespective of what might happen, & because they’ve achieved their goal they move on without any dissonance
Sarah I know I’m going to get more abuse, but frankly what’s said on a bulletin board doesn’t worry me. The SP is where it is because the whole market, not just the handful of people posting here, has looked at the finance deal & they see it for what it is.
Traders (& we now have a lot) know the SP isn’t going to rise until the diamond deal is announced. They look at the announcement this morning & see the risk of significant dilution & know that is going to be a drag on the SP until the risk is removed
You’re right starvest, Mercuria will agree because this is the only possibility they have of their loan being repaid & shareholders will vote to approve the finance deal. The consequences of not doing so don’t need to be said.
Agree Herbie, there’s going to be apprehension until we have the money from Swiss Tony to ensure Atlas don’t convert T1. IMO when the RNS confirmation of conventional debt lands we’ll see a decent SP rise, as it will remove the risk of 30% dilution & aggressive selling by Atlas.
Thanks flava & l return the goods wishes to you & all Vast shareholders.
IMO you’re right we should now get the positive diamond news next week.
Then it becomes a case of deciding whether to hold for long term production, or sell & buy back later at the inevitable short term lower price
Sam I’m kicking myself too, because I was back in profit for the first time in 4 years. I didn’t sell because like everyone I didn’t want to miss the anticipated rise from a good diamonds deal.
The greed overcame trader mentality of taking 10%
caselogic as we know nothing about the diamond deal I can’t answer your question. Everything previously published went out the window when the concession changed.
As for BP, read the corporate presentation. The information published by Vast shows that BP isn’t going to produce anything like the fcf often quoted on this bulletin board.
So IMO the crucial factors are:
1. What will the revised diamond forecasts look like
2. Can alternative finance be found before Atlas convert the T1 tranche
And to you too Sam.
I’ve been an investor constantly holding (& averaging down) since 2014. I now know I should have traded, because IMO despite what AP said in recent interviews Vast obviously was & remains a trader’s share
Sam IMO but dyor & don’t base your decisions on anything I say. Based upon the information we currently have available sadly not.
Before the previous interview & original GM resolutions I always feared SP appreciation from signing the Katanga/ZCDC deal would be pulled back by a poor finance deal. However the interview & GM resolutions made me think we were going to get better finance - look back at my posts & you’ll see I argued it didn’t look like convertible finance (that’s why you should dyor because he shows how little I know), so I thought we could push on towards 1p by Christmas
Sam we were at 0.51 on expectation.
Expectation that the diamond deal would be signed by now, & expectation regarding the finance.
In his interview a couple of weeks ago AP said the finance would be non-dilutive & then we saw the GM resolutions which only asked for £250K at nominal value headroom. That made people like me think, wow this is going to be good finance.
The reality which is being reflected in the SP now that the finance deal has been published is very different.
caselogic it enables the projects to progress.
As I said at the beginning of my post, anyone in a position of strength wouldn’t have arranged that finance deal. We know Vast have not been negotiating from a position of strength, so that’s why we have this deal, & not straight forward debt with a more normal rate of business finance interest
Sorry didn’t answer the question about reducing shares in issue. There are 2 options:
1. Share buy back. That’s not going to happen for a long time, because free cash flow is going to go to payback Atlas
2. Consolidation. I would expect something like 1:20 sometime early in 2020
Sarah, in an ideal world no one would have done this finance deal. But as we know Vast aren’t living in an ideal world, so AP has taken the only deal on offer. Why isn’t it ideal?
1. We’re paying a10% arrangement fee to Carlingford. That’s $1.5 million, a huge amount that we obviously had no choice but to pay
2. There’s a real risk that Atlas convert at least a percentage of the first tranche, so that means SP dilution
3. We’re going to be issuing warrants immediately which can be converted into 600 million shares. They’ve already been forward sold, or will be sold immediately, so SP depressive.
4. The elements associated with the diamonds, effectively have a 105% interest rate