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Oh dear.
It's easy to forget the six week lag effect. We are only three weeks into January but prices have been established for the rest of this month, Feb and we are now entering March. A quick fag packet calc and I have €740 for Jan, €790 for Feb and assuming a softening to $950 over the next three weeks, €770 for March giving an average Q1 north of €750. If we plug €750 into Q1 sales tonnes instead of €600 - we averaged approx 12153 tonnes since 2016 - and this gives additional revenue of €1.8 million. If we equaled the best Q1 of 2018, which was 13758 tonnes, it's an extra €2.0 million with no incremental increase in fixed costs.
LM has already told us Dec was €700 and said Jan will be materially higher so I'd be surprised if my numbers were wildly off the mark. The major Q1 variables will be CPO production and yield but it would have to be a train smash of a harvest not to capitalise on these conditions.
Add to all this the Cashews coming on stream, commodity number 3, RSPO, green energy, refinancing, the prospect of paying down the debt and maybe a return to the dividend list and I get very very excited.
I'm a long term holder and very bullish and this is my personal view. Absolutely no advice intended.
Theoretical maybe but an influencer all the same PrimeRate otherwise why bother at all?
jk400, I prefer to look forwards rather than backwards. As I have said before, the past is not a benchmark for the future. I do my own research, I've been invested since the days of 17p and right now I've more than doubled my money because I've backed my optimism through thick and thin. My research tells me it's a good opportunity so I don't second guess it. I believe it will multi bag from here and that's my unshakeable personal view.
I'm sorry but I fail to see the relevance of fundraiser222 bailing out, but I've only been posting on this board for a short while.
jk400, you could be right but €820 is a long way above €600 and I side with the company when they point out why they believe high prices will be maintained for the time being. This will have massive impact on Q1 numbers.
Arden's first note was issued at the beginning of Sept 20 ie almost three quarters of the year was done and their estimate for 2020 was €575 and it came in at €602. Arden's estimate for this year remains below last year's actual and last year saw a nightmare dip due to Covid.
I believe they've got it wrong and they know they've got it wrong but as you know I'm a bull - this is just my personal view.
I think Arden have bottled it.
Hereandnow, agree with your view on this. Very positive and value adding.
Arden's numbers were based on €575 for 2020, €600 for 2021E and €625 for 2022E. Q1 this year ought to be well over €700 average and futures for H1 suggest this will apply throughout our high season.
The dividend word also mentioned for the first time for a long time....reintroduction at an appropriate time.
Fk1, you are absolutely spot on, 54% it is. I put the blame on fat finger syndrome because it's better than admitting my brain is a bit lame today....
Philpot1001, According to the info in the Arden note Cashews are harvested Feb to June. Most importantly they can be bought and stored for more than 12 months therefore production of processed nut should be near constant throughout the year. Margins are typically mid to high 20% range. Raw nuts price is approx 0.7 euros per kg, processed nuts sell for €5 to €6.2kg depending on quality. Arden project just under 5000 tonnes of raw nuts will give just over 1100 tonnes of finished nuts sold this year. Revenue is forecast to be €6.35 million. DKL have 51% share of business so I assume will they'll get 51% of the PBT
I wonder why DKL can trade for weeks without showing a single UT trade after the closing auction. Now there is a whiff of manipulation when a high price is set at close only to be wiped out the next morning thereby kicking the day off red to set the tone. It has happened twice this week already.
Qd22, good on yer. Dodgy practices employed by other producers will eventually preclude them from a much larger customer and investor base.
Unfortunately for too long all CPOs have been tarred with the same brush and there has been an absence of differentiation.
Yes rugs, looking that way. Perhaps it has been holding the price back though waiting for it to be executed. Appears to be some strength now.
3,850,000 trade at 5.5p. That's the largest trade for a long time. Buy or sell?
It's actually not down 8% because of the RNS. DKL closed yesterday at 6p up 0.3p due entirely to a UT trade of 5025 shares. Bid was 5.5, ask was 5.9 pre closing auction. In spite of the RNS it opened this morning 5.6 on the bid and 5.9 on the ask but effectively 0.3p lower than the false close yesterday.
rugs has in the past reminded us of this type of eventuality.
Fk1, The one trade that even now sticks in my mind was on 23/07/20.....sold 1,650,000 for 1.7p. Each to their own but I still don't understand it.
Hereandnow, agree with you totally. The hysterical and very sarcastic remarks on this board I dont agree with. For example,
to suggest this had fallen 8% as a result of the RNS is just a lazy comment. It opened at 6p because of a small UT trade yesterday which added 0.3p yesterday. This is actually down 0.15p on profit taking and sells outnumbering buys.
The number of share issued is tiny and to issue shares in lieu of salary is common practice, as are share options, share match schemes, LTIP, pumped up pension contributions...the list goes on.
Directors are in a privileged position - fact. They have serious jobs with very serious responsibilities though.
For those with short memories, Aristide's vote of confidence in DKL came when he bought 20 million shares with his own money.
DKL have a history of issuing share in lieu - if you don't like it either sell your shares or stop moaning and acting as though it's outrageous.
A statement of confidence is how I see it.
Apologies for my double post. Having trouble replicating the thread.
2vdm reporting similar buying restrictions on HL. 100 shares only, nothing doing above 1000.