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The market seems to have got bored - at least in relation to Saga - with all the vaccine news, however good.

Maybe what it’s looking for now is a news release, either from the government, the cruise industry or the company, as to what it will all ACTUALLY mean for cruising.

Talking of crystal balls, I wrote on 9 October:

“I'm bracing myself for a lowball offer as low as 35p, say. The BOD would give us the usual crap that "it's in the best interests of all stakeholders" of course”.

What the Consortium does with the company after they've paid us off is none of our business.

Doofus - Saga's also a medium-term hold for me. I can certainly see it settling at £4/£5 next year. Beyond that, who knows?
On Trakm8, there's a trading update this week (Thu/Fri probably), so we'll soon know more. SP is very depressed right now, but all being well, it'll recover. It just needs things like the AA's Smart Breakdown to take off. Be warned though, it's a very thinly traded AIM stock, so it tends to be a bit of a white-knuckle ride!

Hi Doofus! I've enjoyed your musings over on Saga as well. I came to invest in the AA through my interest in Trakm8, which supplies the kit for the AA's Smart Breakdown. I got in here at an average of 19p, so I'd be happy with 40p, though I wouldn't turn my nose up at 50p, which would go a long way towards offsetting my rather hefty paper loss on Trakm8...

£3bn total less £2.6bn debt = £400m for the 623m shares, or 64p per share.

But "£3bn" could mean £2.9m, ie 48p or £3.1bn, ie 80p.

Furthermore, there'll be only a "modest premium" over the closing price of 33p. In the context of a bid, I suppose modest might mean as much as 20%, implying 40p.

So, FWIW, my prediction is 40p - 45p.

One particular attraction for Microlise might be to get hold of Trak's AIM listing through a form of "reverse takeover", though I don't know how that would work in detail, and may in the end be overly complex. I seem to recall when Trak changed its auditors to Microlise's, it fuelled speculation about this being the ultimate intention. The AGM Q&A in September didn't give any clues either way:

"Q. When Microlise made its 'strategic investment' in Trakm8, back in 2018, both
companies suggested they would "explore exciting opportunities to collaborate".
Almost 2 years on, what progress has been made on this front?

A: Trakm8 and Microlise are competitors in some aspects and so have maintained
their independence to a great extent. We have collaborated on some purchasing
activity and we have shared opportunities if one or other of us is not well placed to
secure new business. We have exchanged some technology to improve the solutions
for both companies".

Whatever happens, confirmation that Trak has survived the worst of Covid is the minimum required of this week's update.

I see that Jon Furber, Trak’s impressive FD, has offered his congrats on the award. Trak clearly has some great tech and some juicy clients.

I also see that Furber has put M&A activity at the top of his CV. I wonder if he was taken on with a view to overseeing Trak’s participation in any long-overdue rationalisation in the tracking industry? It’s the obvious way of making Trak’s business instantly profitable (by taking out duplicated costs).

It seems that Microlise can see the potential, even if no one else can - Raza bought more shares in the summer – and Trak and Microlise have already identified themselves as natural bedfellows, so if a full-blown merger of the two has always been the intention, maybe the uncertainties of Covid put this plan back a year, but as we emerge from Covid, is now is the time to take this forward, I wonder?

With that in mind, the most important thing for me right now is for Trak to keep its head above water, to remain a viable business.

When you think that a comparable business like Quartix has a market value of £176m (rev £25m, gross profit £17m, gross margin 65%, op profit £6m) while Trak has a market value of £7m (rev £20m, gross profit £11m, gross margin 59%, Op loss £1m), an offer of as much as 50p would only value Trak at £25m, 1/7th of the value of Quartix. What a steal that would be!

"The NHS plans to vaccinate everyone who wants a jab by early April, according to leaked documents seen by the Health Service Journal. This marks a shift in strategy from the government’s previous plan to only vaccinate the vulnerable. If successful, it would mean that all social distancing measures could be ended in April".

So there'll be nothing to stop cruising restarting in the spring.

Monday should be interesting...

I agree, the market is waiting for the actual numbers for the half year to 31/10/20, together with the outlook for the year, which may not come till late January on past showing. Not much hope of seeing anything before then - the finance department is obviously under a lot of pressure these days, having recently deferred by 3 months the publication of the 2019/20 annual accounts, for which the deadline is now 31/1/21.

So it looks like the SP will be stuck around the current level for some time, unless there is any significant news in the meantime.

However, as long as the results really are good, when they come, I'm happy to wait...

Google is real-time, whereas Bing is 20 mins delayed.

"For what it is worth, a motley fool contributor also come out positive on the stock" - Slownsteady.

Motley Fool on 12 October 2020: "I think the best move is to continue avoiding Saga shares".

"For what it is worth" sums it up nicely.

A useful article, rupans, thanks.

My only comment would be that there was no need for him to pluck a figure out of the air for target EPS. Using historical profitability for 2016 - 2018, as he does, surely it’s quicker and more precise to calculate target EPS as follows:

Average earnings per the Fundamentals tab on this website = £148m, divided by 140m new shares = 106p.

But this does at least show that his 100p guess was about right, and that even at the current SP of 300p, this share should be a multi-bagger.

I suppose it’s asking a bit much for the H1 results to contain any pleasant surprises (to cancel out the unpleasant ones we’ve had to endure in recent years).

However it’s not unreasonable to hope that an indication of actuals for Oct and Nov will show a marked improvement over H1. This is what is needed, I think, to give some credibility to any encouraging forward-looking statement, without which this share will remain in the doldrums.

I agree, £400k was the estimated adjusted loss back in June, but I'm hoping that was unduly pessimistic.

It wouldn't take too much additional revenue or cost savings to eliminate the loss.

The results need to exceed expectations if the SP is to recover any time soon.

To me, a good half year result in the circumstances would be:
Revenue: £8m
Adjusted profit/loss: Breakeven
Net debt: less than £6m (excl IFRS 16), with all tax deferrals settled.

This would constitute an adequate base on which to build a respectable full year outlook.

Anyone who has been closely following Saga will realise that it doesn’t take any more than a re-rating, helped by vaccine news, to explain the “crazy” SP rise.

Newcomers to Saga are more likely to buy into the bid theory, however I can’t see RDH taking it private, and with his 26% stake, he’ll be effectively blocking any other bid, unless it’s a “crazy” offer (£10??)

benjy - M Cap is £400m, not £260m.

Deducting the capital raise of £140m (net) gives the value of the business as £260m, not £110m.

“what the heck is going on“

In large part, today’s rise is just a reversal of the unjustified crucifixion of the SP by the market.

And though not previously priced in, the resumption of cruising in the spring was on the cards even without a vaccine, so the SP is strongly geared to any positive vaccine news at all.

Anyway, days like this don’t often come along, so let’s enjoy the ride!

With everything else booming, it’s making Trak - down over 60% for me - stand out even more as the dog of my portfolio, so it’s a relief to see some positive movement, however small, in the SP at last.

But if next week’s results and outlook reflect to any degree the company’s impressive PR output, we ain't seen nothing yet!