RE: Re COS5 Apr 2018 09:35
I agree and share your frustrations having traded the stock in exactly the same way as yourself. Given the unforseen operational and SP developments since first buying in it is natural to get emotional and begin to question whether we are right to stay in for the drilling campaign, however I try to look at the facts as presented. Three wells with exceptionally high COS for exploration. A big enough prize on offer to generate decent upside in a success case. Large 2P and 2C in Nigeria producing significant cashflow, which should underpin the market cap. Perhaps you can explain your negative cashflow point.
So why is the SP so low going into drilling. Lots of entities with SAVP shares from the Nigeria deal that are not interested in small cap E&P and are selling ahead of drilling. Lack of awareness SAVP even exists amongst most PIs. Confusion amongst early investors having bought an exploration company, now left holding shares in a production company with the main enchillada now just a tasty side salad. There is also the negativity in wider markets over the last couple of months.
However, if we are to believe the merits of the Nigeria transaction then the company is undervalued on that basis alone without ascribing any value to Niger, so downside in the unlikely event Niger is a washout should be minimal and temporary. If Niger is successful as I expect it will be, I expect to see 40-60p depending on the level of success.