RE: Exxon now drilling Sorubim11 Apr 2018 10:31
Loz, current CPR is old and pre 3D, but states 900 MMBOE P50 with COS of 15%. I expect the new CPR will be at least 1500 MMBOE P50 and around 30% COS given read across from Orinduik and fact it's based on 3D and not 2D. If stratigraphic potential is also included I suppose the P50 figures may be quite a bit higher. Let's assume Total farms in, $5/B in success case and ignore assets other than Guyana. 1500 MMBOE x 15% interest X $5/B x 0.71 USD/GBP x 0.3 COS = �240M market cap pre drill or 152p/share. �240M / 0.3 COS = �800M in the success case or 507p. Remember ECO will have funds for a mutliwell drilling campaign in Guyana.
The more I look at ECO's foray in Guyana, the more it reminds me of Cove Energy's foray in Mozambique that led to a �1 billion plus takeover. Note that tiny WTE appears to have built itself around an equity stake in ECO. One of WTE's directors is Thomas O'Gorman? Can you guess his former job? That's right, he was chaiman of Cove Energy. Say no more. This has MOTHERLOAD written all over it.