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I wouldn't call that a muted reaction, just MM games with a gap up on open on the RNS followed by a dip to pick up shares. Looks like it didn't really work with £43.5K of late reported buys on the dip and plenty of other buys. Look for a move through 70p up the TSX opens and spikes higher on the RNS from its 68.9p close.

To those of you that have an account with Barclays Smart Investor, are you getting logged out sometimes when trying to execute a trade? It's happened to me several times this week and I've not noticed the issue before. Annoying to say the least.

Sorry Pawn, but you're wrong again. See 2017-03-06 RNS.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/anglo-african-o--38-g--aaog-/rns/admission-to-aim-and-first-day-of-dealings/201703060828405462Y/

'Workover of two existing wells intended to RAPIDLY increase production to c. 185 - 250 bopd which would see AAOG achieve operating breakeven at $48'. This refers to TPL-101 and TPL-102.

Rapidly increase production? LOL! That RNS was nearly 2 years ago and what's the combined flow rate at the moment from 101 and 102? 101 was flowing at 55 BOPD last month and they're considering using 102 as an injector. Talk about abject failure. Then they trot out a fantasy figure of 400 BOPD for 101 if 102 is used as an injector. LOL. Whatever.

Now we get a fantasy figure for 103 promising 1500 BOPD. How are they going to achieve that? So what if the R intervals flowed handsomely in 1994 and 2006, that was more than a decade ago. Why do you think 101 flowed so pooly? The field has been depleted since then. The CPR shows quite clearly that the gross 2P for the R intervals is only 0.19 MMBO, a measly 0.11 MMB net to AAOG.

Even if they manage to get half of the original 101/102 fantasy figure of 250 BOPD from the R intervals of 103, they will still need 1375 BOPD from the Mengo to hit the 1500 BOPD figure. It's been pointed out to us on numerous occasions that nearby fields are producing from the Mengo at up to 500 BOPD after stimulation. So even in the rosiest scenario I can only see 625 BOPD from 103 and I'd be surprised if they even manage that. They still have to frac the Mengo yet. I guess there's always the hocus pocus fishbone choke us.

Could 103 flow at 1500 BOPD? Anything's possible, but based on the evidence so far and AAOG's record of overpromising and chronic under delivery I doubt it. Combine that with the repeated financing issues and I'm exceedingly skeptical. It's your money though.

A huge success? 101 and 102 were a big letdown despite being promised 250 BOPD from the R1/R2 intervals and there are no flow rates as yet for 103. I'll believe it when I see it.

Nonsense. The well has not even been fracced yet, never mind flow tested. We have no idea what the actual rate will be or even if the Mengo will flow.

5p would still only value LOGP at just under £1/BOE net recoverable, which is OK for a pre-drill exploration well valuation, but this is a 5-7 well appraisal campaign of a huge oil and gas discovery with significant exploration upside. $5/BOE net recoverable seems more appropriate which gives a SP of 20p before adding anything for the massive exploration upside. SP has a very long way to go yet IMO and will only be fueled by the threadbare free float. Should be an explosive ride.

again.

Dregsy, lots of dusters means nothing especially in such huge acreage. You do realise MATD's three licences cover an area of 60,000 km2? That's almost as large as the Republic of Ireland. Think how many dusters there were in the North Sea before any discovery was made and look how that turned out.

Also, did you fail to look at the map I referred you to on page 10 of the January 2019 presentation? Oil discoveries all over the place in the adjacent licence totalling nearly 600 MMB in the portion shown on the map. One has 300-400 MMB and is only about 3km from MATD's Heron prospect, which itself appears to the main part of a discovery already made on the adjacent licence.

https://www.petromatadgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Corporate-Presentation-10_01_19-Petro-Matad.pdf

I notice you kept peddling the £50M market cap BS well after I pointed out on Friday it was only £41M of which a good slug is cash. IMO this is the most interest MATD drilling campaign to date as the odds of them finding a decent amount of oil look exceptionally good. Given the high COS, I think a lot more investors will hold through to results so I expect there will be less pullback.

But you neven know. Maybe Seftoe has got a magic wand.

AAOG is shouting about 1500 BOPD but they haven't even fracced the Mengo yet never mind tested the well and they're even talking of using fishbones for the Mengo. BOD couldn't even manage 100 BOPD for two R1/R2 workovers despite promising 250 BOPD and the most the Mengo has produced in neighouring licences according to them is 500 BOPD. Sounds like a load of fishbone choke us. Given the track record of mishaps and left field event the last 18 months I'd be very wary of AAOG.

Did you not have your Weetabix this morning Degsy? Market cap is only £40M and a slug of that is cash so enterprise value is nowhere near £50M. Adjacent licence is literally covered with large oil discoveries with several right on or straddling MATD's licence. COS is exceedingly high for first drill. RMP is decent, but well has much lower chance of success and company not exactly loaded. AAOG? No thanks.

on quote and deal. Push towards high into close again perhaps.

Just looked at the map on p10 of the latest presentation. Didn't realise we're drilling only 3 km from a 3-400 MMB field! Why didn't we drill it sooner. MATD could find some serious reserves in the next few months. There's oil all over the neighbouring block, about 600 MMB on that map alone. The Heron prospect we're drilling first does indeed look like the major portion of one of those discoveries. GLA

Looks like market cap reached well over £100M in 2017 without any drilling catalyst. That's well north of 15p.

No that's not correct. The well hasn't even been flow tested yet so nobody knows what the inital flow rate will be never mind the rate 18 months later. It's all speculation.

And look at the very precise wording in the last RNS, 'The Company is currently funded for THIS work stream.' LOL. Nothing would surprise me here given the last 18 months.

It's not a million a month yet, there has been no testing you numpty. I wonder what extra costs you can find if you look down the back of the sofa.

They haven't even started testing yet and they need to frac the Mengo first. 1500 BOPD is just wishful thinking at this stage and I'll believe it when I see it, especially given their track record. I like the careful wording, 'The Company is currently funded for THIS work stream.' How about other stuff like admin costs and contingencies? I would be literally shocked if there was a need for further funds. GLA

Thanks for the excellent post. I had a listen earlier and that's a great synopsis of the key points.

Yep. Up £10M market cap in two hours on £65K in trades. No RNS behind last big rally either.