Member Info for Phoebus

I use $5.00/BOE in the success case for oil. Someone was using only $2.50/BOE for gas on here the other day, which would give a value of nearly 12p per share in the success case. Currently we are at less than 5% of that for a drill with 32% COS. Doesn't add up. Far too low.

Does this add up?

ECO $213.4M cap targeted 23.5 MMBOE net risked at Joe/Jethro.
CLON $15.6M cap targeting 44.0 MMBOE net risked.

Oil and gas prices are significantly higher than when Joe and Jethro were drilled, yet ECO was valued on 26 x the multiple of CLON. Doesn't add up does it.

Does this add up?

ECO $213.4M cap targeted 23.5 MMBOE net risked at Joe/Jethro.
CLON $15.6M cap targeting 44.0 MMBOE net risked.

Oil and gas prices are significantly higher than when Joe and Jethro were drilled, yet ECO was valued on 26 x the multiple of CLON. Doesn't add up does it.

Does this add up?

DELT $44.5M cap targeting 8.5 MMBOE net risked.
CLON $15.6M cap targeting 44.0 MMBOE net risked.

DELT and CLON are both gas drills in tier one jurisdictions and CLON is in the more prolific basin, yet DELT is valued on 15 x the multiple of CLON. Doesn't add up does it.

Does this add up?

TRP $9.7M cap targeting 6.0 MMBOE net risked.
CLON $15.6M cap targeting 44.0 MMBOE net risked.

TRP has a negative net current asset position, no farm out concluded and no funds to drill, but is valued on 4.5 x the multiple of CLON. Doesn't add up does it.

On a risked barrels (2U/2C) to market cap basis, CLON is currently significantly cheaper than all of these recent and pending drills.

https://i.ibb.co/HrhwV90/CLON-Market-Cap-to-Risked-Net-Barrels-Comparison.jpg

To reach the same multiple as the second cheapest drill, which was CHAR ahead of Anchois-2, CLON would have to reach 1.51p ahead of results. To reach the average multiple of these 9 drills it would have to reach 7.9p ahead of results. I hope that conveys how cheap CLON is on a relative basis for Sasanof-1.

The PRD metric is for the 2021 drill. I have assumed 30% COS for UKOG and 80% COS for EOG drills. Note that risked barrels takes into account the varying COS. I have used peak market cap prior to drill result for drilled wells and the current market cap for pending drills.

On a risked barrels (2U/2C) to market cap basis, CLON is currently significantly cheaper than all of these recent and pending drills.

https://i.ibb.co/HrhwV90/CLON-Market-Cap-to-Risked-Net-Barrels-Comparison.jpg

To reach the same multiple as the second cheapest drill, which was CHAR ahead of Anchois-2, CLON would have to reach 1.51p ahead of results. To reach the average multiple of these 9 drills it would have to reach 7.9p ahead of results. I hope that conveys how cheap CLON is on a relative basis for Sasanof-1.

The PRD metric is for the 2021 drill. I have assumed 30% COS for UKOG and 80% COS for EOG drills. Note that risked barrels takes into account the varying COS. I have used peak market cap prior to drill result for drilled wells and the current market cap for pending drills.

I'm just running the numbers again on recent and pending exploration drills and as suspected CLON is coming out looking monstrously cheap for its share of Sasanof-1. Will post data when complete.

on EV/2U basis. That's incredibly cheap compared to other LSE drills. $0.34/BOE risked for example is like buying ADV at 0.39p on the run up to 5.7p ahead of Buffalo-10 results. If you look at other drills you will see similar mind boggling examples. Market has taken leave of its senses on this one. Should be multiples of the current SP IMO. DYOR and crunch the numbers. Huge drill. Prolific area. Excellent jurisdiction.

Pat, if you buy in after the stock doubles you should expect some consolidation. Forget the hour to hour movements, look at the fundamentals and ask yourself why you invested. If it was just a blind punt then go run the numbers. To be on a similar EV/BOE 2U risked multiple as other drills ahead of drilling CLON would need to be much higher than 1p. Of course, the market can do anything especially short term, but at this market cap the risk reward looks very compelling IMO.

The beautiful thing here is that the fundamentals are on CLON's side. Even at 2p the EV/BOE risked multiple would not look at all stretched compared with other drills. Plenty of running room IMO.

CLON's share of Sasanof-1 is 137.6 MMBOE on a 2U basis and 341.6 MMBOE on a 3U basis. The resource figures on p3.

https://www.westerngas.com.au/sites/default/files/Western%20Gas%20Sasanof%20Good%20Oil%20Final%20070921.pdf

Note that the Mentorc field which is down dip and directly adjacent to Sasanof was filled to spill, which correlates better with 3U figures.

(7.2 TCF x 1000 / 6 [convert to MMBOE] + 176 MMB condensate ) x 0.10 [CLON share] = 137.6 MMBOE net to CLON on 2U basis

(17.8 TCF x 1000 / 6 [convert to MMBOE] + 449 MMB condensate ) x 0.10 [CLON share] = 341.6 MMBOE net to CLON on 3U basis

VB, I think people already watching held off buying until yesterday afternoon as they were waiting for the price to turn before getting in. The speed of the move will have caught some off guard. The wider market will be just starting to take notice thanks to CLON's stint on the risers board yesterday. New investors will be rubbing their eyes in disbelief once they swot up and crunch the numbers.

Indeed. Helps explain why this has a pedigree of making huge rapid moves higher, just like its sister stock PET.

Anyone else expecting this may go over 2p in the run up to drilling? The maths seems to support it given the small market cap and huge net drill exposure.

Market cap is still miles out of whack with the size of drill exposure. Should be hilarious watching it re-rate to fair value. Even at only $2.50/BOE risked gives a SP of 3.8p!

If you mean 1M shares, that's peanuts.

$0.13/BOE unrisked, $0.41/BOE risked.

Another 9.9M shares and options issued today, 'in acknowledgment of the Company's management's recent success'. Long term investors haven't exactly enjoyed much success though have we given that the SP is now lower than just a few week after the COVID crash lows. Over the same time frame oil has gone through the roof and many oil companies including some pretty awful ones have seen stellar gains. Can't say I'm pleased to see you rewarding yourself at shareholder expense despite this terrible SP performance. Perhaps we could have some news that doesn't involve yet more dilution as it's beginning to add up.

Another 9.9M shares and options issued today, 'in acknowledgment of the Company's management's recent success'. Long term investors haven't exactly enjoyed much success though have we given that the SP is now lower than just a few week after the COVID crash lows. Over the same time frame oil has gone through the roof and many oil companies including some pretty awful ones have seen stellar gains. Can't say I'm pleased to see you rewarding yourself at shareholder expense despite this terrible SP performance. Perhaps we could have some news that doesn't involve yet more dilution as it's beginning to add up.