Member Info for Phoebus

Https://oilnow.gy/featured/six-groups-submit-bids-as-guyana-closes-first-ever-offshore-licensing-round/

Looks like our Orinduik partners TotalEnergies and Qatar Energy want more exposure as do all three Stabroek participants, ExxonMobil, Hess, and CNOOC. Surely a slice of our 75% of Orinduik has to be in their sights. Only a few weeks until results are announced. Expecting big changes here shortly. GLA

Https://oilnow.gy/news/tullow-gets-key-nod-to-exit-orinduik-but-might-remain-on-kanuku-license/

Should read 'less than 2 and a half years until Orinduik expires' (end Jan 2026 approx).

I think people are looking at the wrong candidates. Firstly, Repsol is clearly still interested in acreage south of Stabroek, having applied to renew their Kanuku block which expired in May. They were the joint biggest holder together with Tullow on 37.5% each. Tullow has also walked away from that licence. Light oil was discovered on Kanuku in the Cretaceous updip of Orinduik at Carapa back in 2019, so if Repsol is interested in the Kanuku acreage, I think it highly likely they will also be interested in Orinduik, where the Cretaeous targets are much further down dip and closer to the 32 discoveries on Stabroek.

https://oilnow.gy/featured/with-time-ran-out-reaoipsol-asks-guyana-for-brand-new-license-for-kanuku-block/

Secondly, Africa Oil is ECO's major shareholder and they are currently waiting for flow results from their Venus mega discovery. Their shares are doing extremely well and they would have no trouble funding a campaign on Orinduik in return for a direct interest, say 50% for AOI in return for a two well carry for ECO. Africa Oil has long been very interested in Orinduik and given there is now less than two years until Orinduik expires, I expect them to move swiftly to drill the Cretacous so they have time to follow up and drill all the main Cretacous targets in a success case.

Thirdly, on Stabroek exploration drilling is getting closer and closer to Orinduik. Fangtooth and Lancetfish have been the closest Cretacous discoveries so far at around 8 miles away. Basher and Lanternfish are up next and are closer still. It is a logical progression that our acreage would be of interest to Hess, Exxon or CNOOC. See p11.

https://investors.hess.com/static-files/cd1529dc-ddd7-41b4-8c08-07f973fe8ceb?_ga=2.268592051.316700429.1693497609-651247394.1688036372

Lastly, Guyana is currently holding a bid round for 14 new offshore blocks. 11 of these are significantly up dip of Orinduik and the other three are out beyond Canje on the far side of Stabroek. Bids have to be made within the next two weeks and companies will know their fate by the end of October. Of all the acreage up for grabs, none of it is as close to the action as the 75% which ECO is looking to farm down on Orinduik. If any company is interested in bidding for Guyana acreage, I am sure they will be interested in making Gil an offer.

I will be very surprised if Gil does not strike a definitive deal for Orinduik within the next 2-3 months with drilling to commence 2024 Q1/Q2. Huge resources on trend with 32 Stabroek discoveries right next door. All to play for.

GLA

As at 2022-12-31, current assets (£284,135) minus current liabilities (£1,421,059) minus 7 months admin (£1,694,576 / 12 x 7) + placing less 10% cost (£500,000 - £50,000) = minus £1.675M.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ORCA/results-for-the-half-year-ended-31-december-2022/15896954

My guess is a crypto ETF or fund was the buyer this last week, adding KR1 to their portfolio or increasing their exposure. Buying was in size and at increasing price regardless of last week's dip in NAV. Keen eye of a well informed investor ahead of the crypto bounce. Vaccuumed up most of the liquidity for the rest of us looking to add steadily on increasing NAV. This time next dip Rodney.

Some odd dealing here the last fortnight. My rough estimate suggests NAV is down around 22% since June 5, yet the SP has risen 16% and is now almost back to NAV, which has not been the case for some time. Those 2,500 trades in particular seem a bit odd in quick succession. Why bash the ask so hard with NAV still languishing and total altcoin market cap on the verge of breaking the 28 month low. Perhaps I've missed some related news or the buyer is expecting an imminent spike in cryptos, in which case, good call. Any insight Botak? You seem to be the resident expert on KR1. It's slow and steady with this one for me. Two years and we should do very well. GLA

I've been eagerly awaiting a drill of the Orinduik Cretaceous since 2017. Time and again we've been told that drilling is just around the corner, but years have passed and still nothing. Do people realise that the Orinuik licence period lapsed last Friday and without an actual firm committment to drill there will be no three year extension and no more Orinduik.
Nothing but radio silence from Tullow. What a complete waste.

Don't the licences run out in 3 months?

Great job Fernan. Perhaps we should also deduct current liabilities of $0.67M as at end 2021 and another $2M for Q3-Q4 G&A expenses as Gazania results won't be until Q4. Assuming $20M cost for Gazania would leave ECO with around $5.3M post drilling. I haven't seen a cost estimate as yet for the next well on Orinduik, but Jethro-1 was originially forecast to be $7.6M net to ECO although I think this figure was revised lower in the end.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/eco--atlantic--o--38-g--eco-/rns/replacement---eco-s-2019-drilling-program/201812051313125575J/

Unless Gazania comes in under budget and Orinduik is drilled PDQ then ECO looks like it will need to raise some funds ahead of Orinduik drilling. Not a huge issue, but not ideal in the current climate, hence my recommendation to farm down Gazania to preserve some of the cash pile. That said, if we are lucky at Gazania, then this is all moot. GLA

According to p117 of the latest CPR, the official COS of Gazania is 34.7% and Namaqualand is 37.1%.
https://wp-ecooilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/03/AIM2022CP-ECO-Report-final-3-22-2022.pdf

On the flip side, now that the JHI deal has fallen through, ECO won't get access to JHI's $20M odd cash pile, so if Gazania-1 is a duster there won't be much cash left. Not a nice thought given the dreadful market backdrop.

Having waited for so long, the timing of this market meltdown is incredibly frustrating. Longer term ECO should be OK, but the risks short and medium term have increased considerably IMO and I see little upside into drilling for ECO or any other drillers until market conditions improve significantly.

At least the placing for Gazania was done before JHI walked or we'd be in a right pickle.

Best course of action for Gil right now IMO would be to farm down Gazania for as close to free carry as possible to guard against things getting too bumpy.

GLA

I believe the Orinduik drilling commitment is already fulfilled for the current period ending 2023-01 and the next well is due by 2026-01.

It's good to see the rise here, but I remain cautious. Appetite for exploration and appraisal drillers seems abysmal at the moment despite the high oil and gas prices, which is both perplexing and frustrating. Same picture with small cap miners. Last 12 months has been a real grind. If only I'd bought that EFT of US listed oil producers instead of doing some careful research and getting fancy, I'd be partying at Ace's Bar already now. Catalysts look good, so hopefully the market mood turns around. This time next year Rodney.

I wish. I bought in as soon as the acquisition was announced in the 0.50s as the fundamentals were extremely compelling for an exploration drill. Unfortunately the offloading of placing shares and dire wider equity markets have stymied the SP stopping me out for a nice loss on Tuesday. Fundamentals of the drill still look excellent but rule number one in investing is always look after your capital, set your limits and act accordingly if things don't pan out as you expected despite what you might think.

Perhaps I should refrain from contributing futher to this board if nobody finds it of use.

Has anyone confirmed the number of barrels net to CLON at Sasanof-1? I was under the impression that as per the CLON acquisition RNS, Sasanof was 7.2 TCF gas plus 176 MMB condensate (P50), which equates to 1,376 MMBOE, and that as a 10% stakeholder CLON's share was therefore 137.6 MMBOE.

https://investegate.co.uk/clontarf-energy-plc--clon-/rns/acquisition-of-10--of-sasanof-prospect/202205090700056935K/

However, page 3 of PRM's May 12 news release states that although Sasanof is 7.2 TCF plus 176 MMB condensate (P50), the proportion net to the WG519 licence in which PRM has a 25% stake is only 4.131 TCF plus 100.4 MMB condensate (P50), which equates to 789 MMBOE (P50). This appears to be due to some of the prospect lying beyond the licence boundary as confirmed by the accompanying diagram.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02520989-6A1091459?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

As far as I can tell it looks like CLON has also invested at the same licence level as PRM, which would mean that CLON's share of net barrels would be 78.8 MMBOE and not 137.6 MMBOE (P50). Can anyone confirm which is the correct figure?

Nevertheless, even at the lower resource size the current market cap equates to only $0.50/BOE risked (P50) which still looks cheap compared with other recent and pending drills.

I believe JHI has cash but no further drilling carry and that cash is included in the $45M Harel referred to. We will only get that once the deal has closed and ECO will have around 440M shares in issue by then.

Placing looks good to me, especially given current market conditions.

The point is though that CLON is on such a low multiple per BOE risked that it could multi-bag BEFORE results and still only be on the same multiple as other recent and pending drills were/are on BEFORE results. Can't remember seeing such a low entry for a scheduled drill.

https://i.ibb.co/HrhwV90/CLON-Market-Cap-to-Risked-Net-Barrels-Comparison.jpg