RE: BTC price23 Jan 2021 15:27
I believe the trade volume of BTC futures is tiny compared to the trade volume of actual BTC whilst for gold and silver it is the exact opposite with metals futures outweighing actual physical metal by orders of magnitude, which is why the gold and silver futures tail can wag the physical dog.
My guess is that for BTC to be manipulated there would have to be a gigantic increase in BTC futures volume, which would require a much larger amount of BTC being under the auspices of futures markets related parties. For them to achieve that they would need to buy a huge amount more BTC, which would cause a massive increase in price. However, as the vast majority of BTC appears to be held by BTC Whales who seem more interested in HODL, it may not be possible for enough BTC to be bought, so I expect it will either takes a very long time for them to gain control or they will never manage to do so to any great effect.
Another possibility is that an utterly gigantic price spike is engineered so that a lot of people including BTC Whales decide to sell allowing futures related parties to scoop up and HODL. Perhaps the price will go supernova this cycle for that very reason.
This of course is all supposition.