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The price drop is strange. It feels to me that this being dropped on purpose. If news lands now that could be seen as negative this could go down into the 3s. Didn't think we would see below 4.5 region but it's very possible. This has drifted down to just above what the price was when the ascot news arrived. The sp should start to rise from here, but that next bit of news is very important.
Thank you flipper. Just read thru it.
It was all going so smoothly until xtract started poking their noses into other areas around BR. As soon as they poked ascot what was already a complicated enough asset to value became an impossible asset to value. A great problem to have and shows what continued drilling can bring. Trouble is short term ascot has not done anything for the share price. And won't do anything for the share price unless a sale is made. It might move the share price a little while its been investigated further which could take 12 months at least. Then we prod another hole somewhere else and find another porphyry that will need to be explored fully. That another 12 to 18 months. Then so on and so on. The share price might not move thru all this. We could be having this conversation in 10 years with 7 porphyries under our belt. With still more to investigate. Share price still in the 4-7p region. At some point xtract has to make a decision either way. When is the right time to show your hand.
I couldn't agree with you more Cygnus. It would be shocking to find out that they found so much more a few years down the line. That is the choice Colin is making for us.
Without the communication from CB it starts to play tricks on your mind. He has said he wants a quick sale, and has also said he is going to continue drilling. Now he is saying nothing. Something is definitely happening behind the scenes, good hopefully or if not good, I would settle for really good
Cygnus. Sorry didn't explain myself at all well there. Colin has always said he wants a quickish sale. He has repeated that several times. So if he can prove he has alot more than 2mt and can show potential for even more I'm pretty certain he would have let interested parties know. At that point the buyer would offer over fair value for what xtr can prove, simply because of potential for more. The part where Colin has always said he wants a quickish sale is the reason I think probably wrongly they won't continue exploring more. AA will want to pay as little as possible because what's in the ground is in the ground. They will find it. The initial outlay for AA will be the important bit for them. Once 2mt is found that is the easier bit to agree on. How can you price the potential. If Colin wants a quick sale and can prove he has Xyz+ potential extras. AA want xyz fair value plus potential extras as cheap as possible.
Colin wants a quick sale, but a good deal for shareholders. AA want to pay as little as possible. Neither will want to drag it out to much before they come to an agreement or not imo.
Or perhaps I'm miss reading the situation completely ( which certainly wouldn't be the first time) and Zac Mir had got the wrong end of the stick. Just very strange for the xtract radio silence to be happening at exactly the same time as when Colin said share holders would be receiving a cheque and Zac mir said drilling would be stopping.
Aeris. I totally agree. It makes perfect sense to have a full picture for both parties to get fair value. The only side that can benefit from a early stoppage of drilling is AA if 2mt has been found. They will be paying fair value for 2mt. Its quite obvious 2mt doesn't come close to the full capacity of the licence. You wouldn't sell your car and give away your house as part of the deal. Im hoping Colin has something up his sleave, and he can prove to the potential buyer that we have a lot more than 2mt. That way stopping drilling early makes perfect sense to me. The buyer will be willing to pay more than fair value at that point imo. Because the more xtract find the price will go up and up and no buyer will want that.
Aeris. Zak mir said on his show in discussing xtract that drilling would finish in May come what may. (May22, may 23, not sure) . He said CB had told him in a conversation. He said I know when drilling stops. It stops in May. He was so definite in what he said I believed him, he was talking to Phil and Kevin if I remember rightly. But I don't remember him saying anything about stopping due to the 2mt reached. I will dig the conversation out when I get a chance. I thought Zac risked a lot by saying what he did. He could easily be seen as leading investors up the garden path if it turns out he was being untruthful. To say such a thing he must have really positive that was the case. Perhaps since CB has told him differently and zac has passed that on on his show. But I have not heard that at all. I have never actually heard CB say drilling stops in May though.
It's definitely the longest spell of silence from CB for a long time. Is is such a great investment opportunity but I will be trying hard not to buy more this week after hitting my target this last week. Profits from wishbone are sat ready to go somewhere. Veru, panr or xtr. Certainly not enough for all 3 unfortunately.
Excellent points Howezap thank you.
I'm involved in a stock I don't totally understand. That is why I have done my best to bring my cost average down. I am learning though from the knowledge presented to me by the top class posters on this board.
Phatbaz, I am thinking CBs silence on Xtr is down to what Zac Mir way saying about having a conversation with CB about all drilling would stop in May finished or not. Zac M seemed pretty certain on this subject. Zac M has interviewed CB about his other companies since this was mentioned, so to me that says Zak still sees CB as a man of his word. CB earlier in the year did also say he hoped shareholders would get a nice cheque come April. I think discussions have already taken place and are still taking place. That is the reason for the radio silence as negotiations continue.,(possibly). But CBs ambitious time frames mean delays are inevitable.
But the silence certainly doesn't go easy on the nerves, that's for sure. That's why I'm so grateful to the rest of you for the research.
Lucky I have not read any results from the tests yet. But as half of what I read on xtr sales way over my head I may well of done without realising it.
Thanks Docit for all your hard work. I forgot Howezap, another excellent poster. I used to like reading News posts as well. But things happen, that's life. Your right, everyone is here to make money but some are here to make money for everyone invested, some are here to make money for themselves. I know which ones I respect more.
Thanks Ella, it's a great bunch on this board. So willing to share information. Every board has it bashers when they realised they have missed out. That's how it works. Why else would someone bash a share unless they wanted a lower price to buy in. But on this board I have sat back and read, finding out who is trustworthy. This board is top notch, full of informative posts. People spending a lot of their time doing the hard graft and finding information to share with others. So thankyou to yourself, Andy Mills, iceberg, both Steves, Docit, Cygnus, I want that one and many others that I have forgotten about. Its so reassuring to know your invested in the same share a such an informed group.
Sorry for my English. Good with numbers awful at literacy
I'm sort of realising I have been thinking in the wrong area. And it's still guess work. I like to be ahead of the game in my strategy. Looks like it's wait and see then valuate when the information becomes available. I'm hoping to be a long term xtract investor now and don't intend on selling any shares. Because of the information that so many of you have provided over the last couple of years has given me the reassurance I'm investing in the right company. Also moving into the new licences I'm positive this won't the last time we have to think about such a conundrum. The whole area looks like a money pit. If it takes another 3 years to get to our next sale the price will have rocketed and we will be looking at a sale of a billion for a similar sale.
I just think after the sale it would be more beneficial to the share holders and company to have 75 million in the bank. Once the sale goes thru an bushranger/ascot are sold, xtracts main asset will become the African assets. They are very hard to set a price at. Worth anywhere between 2-5p in most peoples valuation. 12.5 million in the bank will give a top share price of 6p after the sale imo. No more bushranger means the share price will drift imo. But 75 million in the bank imo will give us a minimum share price of 10-14p. Much more appealing to investors going forward. I will be much less like to sell shares after the sale if xtract take 30% than 5%. Simply because I feel my money will be a lot safer.
Thank you Cygnus. Giving xtract a boost of around 12.5 million. I thought it would be more than this. But your knowledge on this subject will outweigh mine. So about 23p a share to shareholders on a sale of 250 million.
After taxes of course
If or when a sale is made, does anyone have a rough idea what sort of % of the sale price xtract would hold onto to keep exploring in the future. I would hope about 30%. So a sale of roughly 250 million pounds sterling would give them 75 million capital going forward for further exploration. With so much more to explore this would underpin the share price for several years to come not even including African assets
It's always a good sign when people decide it's time to try their hardest to bring down the price to get a good entry point to make a quick buck. Very good sign in fact.