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Hi Gdog, doing well thank you. Enjoying today, quite unexpected given how things looked last night. Hard not to also be mindful though of what is getting visited upon the poor Ukrainians.
More than nibbling PUBM, I have scarfed. Wish my cost basis was a little lower than it is but it’s my largest position now. I was moderately relieved to hear Barrett’s commentary on the magnite call regarding OpenPath. Should bode very well for PUBM. And they also inked a deal with the world’s largest ad agency today so there’s that too.
PST that should have said.
SNN, I’m on the U.S. West Coast and happened to see what the AIM price was doing during the night…then at 0700 PDT the US markets were open for a half hour with the ADS price up 9% when abruptly the TRMR AIM went from 535 to 495. It proved however to be momentary.
The U.S.market opened, the ADS’s are rocking and the AIM shares promptly took a nose dive. Can anyone explain that one?
Gdog - will do - I’ll send you something later today that may be of interest.
…the market likes SNAPs results.
And my happy face emoji showed up as question marks. Oh boy, I’ll stop now.
And sorry, that should have said “Gdog” ??
Grog,
Was that on their call? I’ll need to listen to that. From what I’ve read from their report it looks like most of their problems are company specific to the apple privacy and regulatory hurdles.
According to Meta CFO David Wehner, the iOS feature will hurt Meta moving forward:
"We will lap a period in which Apple's iOS changes were not in effect and we anticipate modestly increasing ad targeting and measurement headwinds from platform and regulatory changes,"
Couldn’t happen to a better company. Dirtbags. Won’t be a factor in our sandbox although in the near-term we’ll get whacked regardless. Will probably play out like the Snap scenario last quarter until the individual adtechs report and the market gets a reminder that they’re already set up for sans cookies.
Gdog - I’ve never taken a position in MGNI because on the SSP side they appear to me to be outclassed by PUBM for a host of reasons including balance sheet, organic growth, insider ownership levels and valuation. On a side note, the Laura Martin MGNI target price debacle has been interesting to watch and although I haven’t done any research to back this up, my gut tells me that was about Needham conflict of interest. Makes me a whole lot less interested in the targets she or the other ANALysts have out too. I know you’ve discussed your strategy of spreading the bets out because it’s difficult to tell who’s going to win in the long run, I can see that, makes sense.
I was in ATY for a while, rode it up, rode it down and bailed before I lost all my gains. At this point it’s a long shot and I subscribe to Peter Lynch’s belief that long shots rarely pay off.
All that said, I nevertheless wish MGNI and ATY well for the good of the sector.
Add GOOG to the list of reasons we can rest easy. It’s banal to have to say no guarantees but TRMR/PERI/PUBM/TDD will probably blow out. MGNI likely too although less certain.
Gdog, I suppose my question was more or less directed your way. Given examples such as what SNN shared and Microsoft’s search advertising numbers, the very early indications are strong. Of course there’s no guarantees going forward. Maybe I’m reading too much into your comments but was just wondering if you had specific concerns about what may be coming on forward guidance or just generalized angst. Given how beaten down adtech share prices are now, there would have to be some pretty ugly comments on guidance to drive them lower and that seems very unlikely in the current environment.
Given positive news we’ve already heard from those in advertising who have already reported what, if any, particular fears do you have regarding guidance?
I’m going with Gdog on this. Not a fan of issuing shares only to buy them back later, what’s the point of that (even if they’re bought back cheaper). Jeff Green has spoken extensively about the land grab that’s underway in the adtech space and that won’t last forever. TTD is obviously the gold standard here and TRMR/PUBM/PERI etc are never going to be TTD but like Gdog’s saying, that doesn’t mean they can’t be a significant player. Getting there totally organically ain’t gonna happen. Gerstal at PERI was asked about what kind of acquisitions they’re looking for and one of the criteria he said was it has to be synergistic. A buzz term to be sure but it really means something. Acquiring companies that fill holes in product offerings can and should be a lot more accretive than simply bolting on their current revs/profits/margins. This is where they should be looking and like has been said, getting something on sale with the current downturn is even better.
Okay, don’t know why but I’m not seeing a video anywhere in that blog page. Searched the rest of their site too. Where is it?
Tricky
That’s probably more like it. 41% annual compounded sounds, as gdog put it, too good to be true. Seems like the law of large numbers would make that outcome pretty unlikely. I could see it being better than 12% though.
I posed this question a few days ago on a U.S. message board without opinion but here I’ll say I doubt it. Why would they each raise money if only to merge? Are either Druker or Gerstal of a personality type inclined to play 2nd banana or bow out entirely? Have a hard time seeing it.
Gdog
Tax loss selling may indeed be a contributing factor.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/11/27/tax-loss-selling-season-could-take-bite-out-of-record-highs.html
I particularly liked the advice to be patient and not throw the baby out with the bath water.
ShareNicelyNow,
FWIW, WSJ reports supply chain bottlenecks are easing.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/supply-chain-problems-show-signs-of-easing-11637496002
Sorry for the pay wall but the gist is that the short to intermediate term situation is looking better although longer term pandemic effects will continue to persist into next year.
gdog,
I haven’t followed short interest as you do. Is there thinking that this is sector-wide? All the ad techs are getting whacked today with PERI, PUBM, MGNI, TDD all down 5% or more. PERI in particular appears to be getting the same treatment as TRMR the past 6 days.