Member Info for Phil_2018

Ah, I see Madpunter, I heard that there had been Electoral reforms but overlooked that of course it would mean that the GD would get far less seats as a result of PR. I'm surprised that they agreed to it as they must have known it would most likely be the end of them. Odds are Zaza will have to wait it out till the Election then. Good news indeed as then most likely they can get the license extended :)

Indeed Earsburn, I know SM's have worked with all sorts of dodgy African and other countries in the past. I don't know what tie up the GD have with Russia and where if at all concerns of Georgia, the GD and Georgian people come in. The GD presumably have to go along with Russia enough to avoid Russian aggression and presumably may be recieving some support from them. Still a large operational gas and oil field could be beneficial in avoiding becoming Russia's puppet if the GD are not already. The GD seem interested in US/NATO military support and aid as well as avoiding sanctions and possibly closing off all investment, EU trade ties possibly also.

So are the GD just in a tricky position at the moment perhaps trying to keep the Russians off their back until the right time?

Election wise the GD are currently on 39 percent in recent polls, that's a long lead over opposition parties. I am skeptical whether economic woes will come along quick enough and hard enough for long enough period of time to alter that. At the moment it looks like FRR is likely to have to deal with the GD post October Election also.

How so Aurora, things seem to still be looking a bit out of sorts between FRR and the GG. The GG giving a lot longer period would mean an almost opposite attitude towards FRR than they have since about 2013 apparently.

Zaza talked about trying to get a consortium going with two other Majors last year. What are the chances that such may be possible now? Or will we be slogging it out to the Election in the hope that opposition parties will win through and a better climate?

To me it seems to be a waste to stand around arguing. Now that we are past the 27th July and the notice of termination retracted and the Arbitration now long since passed I'm hoping that a deal with a Major might now be possible and a real positive turn of events occurs. Time to make this oil & gas field really work I think.

Yeah I recall now that Zaza had previously said that operations have not ceased. Though didn't he say more recently the workers were not paid because the Georgian government had frozen their bank accounts so they couldn't do?

Sounds like the GG have been a real pain in the arse and so far continue to do so. If it's been months & months without being able to continue operations due to government freezing bank accounts and nothing happening then that's really not on. Zaza should take the government to court to claim of them as I doubt they had good reason to freeze their bank accounts. Looks like the Georgian government are little better than a load of thieves.

Wow, that is indeed splendid news OneDayRodney :) I think Zaza is doing wonders for us by the looks of it. Still a way to go perhaps and not sure where Zaza will go from here. Looks like he has a good idea of has needs doing. Could make a deal with a Major more likely if he can get things back up and running again. This news has certainly brightened up my day, many thanks ;)

True OneDayRodney, I got busy and kind of regarded all the stuff going on as largely the same, i.e the same dispute going around and around, and that it would be tomorrow that we would find out if the GG follow through on their threat.

From Looed posts just now it seems that a deal is being talked off but not yet agreed.

What is your view of where we are at?

Well tomorrow is the termination day. If the GG move in then odds are we will hear about it through Georgian news agencies. They might but I wouldn't be surprised if it just remains under threat of being taken just not acted upon with negotiations ongoing.

Possibly it might run up to the Election in October. It's still uncertain how that Election will go, there is no certainty that Dream will be kicked out or have to share power. They seem to have done well with containing the virus so far. The economy remains the question mark and if it goes bad then that could push the votes against Dream.

Possibly Zaza may wait to see if the oilfield gets illegally expropriated before taking any legal action. If it doesn't then FRR are in the clear, if FRR apply to court before the 27th then they are then stuck in another court case which they might needn't be stuck in if they wait and call the GG's bluff. Court cases as we know can run on a long time and be costly. Zaza in previous statements of recent seemed adamant it was not possible for the GG to legally take the field and I believe him, he has always come across as a straight up guy to me. Regardless of whether the GG sent a termination notice it could just be rhetoric for the Russians/Election campaigning. Zaza seems confident that it holds no weight and is just bs. We will of course see shortly on this. This is a perculiar share and I don't believe anything is totally certain on it but either way hopefully we will get rid of this matter by the 27th rather than having to put up with the bs forever more.

I'm not sure where Hope stands on all of this, he seems to be pretty quiet considering I assume that if the oil field is expropriated then theoretically he walks away with nothing also. Perhaps he knows that the GG are talking bs and so isn't fazed by it.

Did Hope ever get paid any money to date on the loan notes he bought up? If not he could be looking at a massive black hole in his finances if the GG illegally expropriate FRR's oil & gas field. He would be stuck with the legal costs and no one to claim off plus massively out off pocket on what he paid for the loan notes without any repayment or interest. Wouldn't have thought he would be pleased with that scenario.

Haven't checked in here much recently as figured not much would have changed. Might have already been highlighted but according to this report the US ambassador visited Georgia a couple of days ago and met Georgian Economic Minister Maria Turnava:

https://ge.usembassy.gov/ambassador-kelly-c-degnan-makes-the-first-visit-to-georgias-samegrelo-zemo-svaneti-region-july-10/

Perhaps behind the scenes the matter of foreign investment problems including FRR were discussed? I can't see the point of publicity for investment in Georgia when there is a history of foreign investment being expropriated.

Only 12 days left to find out if the GG are bluffing or any agreement to come out of the woodwork. At least I assume the wait will be over to find out either way.

Well just 20 more days and we'll see whether the GG are bluffing or not. I would say it will at least being an end to this but FRR seem to have a history of the can being kicked down the road every time we seem to get near an outcome whether good or bad.

Looks like Coronavirus cases might be on the up in Georgia. More reason that the GG should let FRR get on with it. I don't really get the reason for the GG's awkwardness on it especially given that the economy is likely to get in a real bad way out there. Russia must have a very tight grip on the GD for them to be messing around like this.

Theoretically only 27 days to wait unless an agreement is reached or more bs ensues.

Earsburn, I see it as a good thing that matters have been push back to an end to mediation in September. Any July or August post mediation activity in the Hope case I believe would have been awkward to FRR. That push back to the 18th September now gives FRR a clear month past the date that the GG state they are going to take back the field. Zaza tells everyone there is no legal grounds for the GG to do this, that the grounds they state were not upheld in arbitration.

So in July we will either see FRR call their bluff and work past the 27th as Zaza state they will. The GG U-turn or reach a agreement with FRR or the GG (apparently illegally) take back the field though Zaza tells everyone this won't happen.

Either way as I was staying in my post yesterday the recommencement in the Hope case around August would likely be unhelpful. If FRR jump the fence on the taking back of the field issue in July then that should allow the doorway to be open to a SM or finance deal to deal with the Hope situation.

We already know that last year FRR were talking about coming to an agreement out of court with Hope in dropping the case. I've always seen the case as a way to stop Hope claiming more that his fair share. Hope probably knows he was successfully blocked and may happily settle. He may just want a payoff now to take his money and move on. I never really saw FRR winning such a case unless they have something really damning that has come to light to them.

I also wonder if the GG stating this taking back the field is a way of them trying to avoid a SM taking over FRR. If they ended up with a SM like BP taking over the field while BP could develop the field a lot more the GG would really be up against it trying to push BP around. BP have a lot more clout than FRR both in money and political influence. If the GG tried to treat BP the way they treat FRR they would soon feel a much quicker and stronger backlash from the US and legal litigation.

I agree with Arsenal both sides have problems and stand to lose if a compromise agreement is not reached. The GG stand to lose US military and economic aid and on wealth & employment in the region if this field is not developed quickly. FRR risk legal battles and non development of the field which they can ill afford. Truth is we don't know for sure whether or not FRR lost crucial matters in the Arb, there is some evidence to say they might but I don't believe the GG have played fairly in their dealings with FRR. The sooner this can be resolved and I hope it will the better it will be for many people, Georgian people included.

Think the report just said the GG and FRR are meeting to discuss certain conditional terms under which FRR could proceed with its license. Theoretically that could be anything, it could just be small give aways and ways things must/should be done. Most likely it could mean giving the GG a bit more slice of the pie. FRR should of course seek to not give away too much while the GG are likely to want a lot. The concern should be that the GG don't become unreasonable and ask for too much and become too aggressive in their demands that it all ends up collapsing a into another stalemate.

I believe a reasonable compromise is the best situation for both sides. The GG needs to ensure that it doesn't seek to take too much so as to not make Frontera or any other company that may take over to bother with the field. Frontera needs to take the view that something of something is better than something of nothing but at the same time not give away too much. Both sides should hopefully deploy skilled negotiators who know how to trade off and are committed to reaching a deal without blowouts.

I'm hoping that both sides won't be unreasonable and avoid this defending into chaos again. Both sides need this oil & gas field to be up and running quickly now. Further acrimony will only result in a long term semi-redundant field that would likely not end up being developed for years and that would be a big negative for both sides.

Just saw the news on here from yesterday that the GG are willing to compromise to let FRR continue. On the face of it that's good news and already that's changed the whole feeling to far more positive I think for all sides. Now of course I think all sides need to be reasonable. If the GG go to far and ask too much it could all end in a farce and more dispute. If a compromise can be found that is acceptable to all then FRR continue working on the field could be beneficial to all. They are there at the most so it's convenient to the GG that they carry on, they know all the data and are up the road in bring able to access all the resources. As I put a few weeks ago it makes no sense for the GG to bring in another company when they could strike a good deal with FRR that they would be unlikely to get from another company. I think once the license is sorted out with a deal assuming a deal is agreed FRR would be best being bought out by a SM. We need the pay off and a SM would have the clout to really develop the field that the Georgians are after. Much needed employment and wealth would then be created.

This isn't looking good if this leaked document is correct and not altered from the original. If FRR can successfully use diplomatic/political pressure that is one thing, but it would likely have to weigh in heavy something like the US stating they will pull out there military and economic support if the GG go ahead. Court action near the date when the GG have announced they will take it all back (if we are talking all) may help to keep them off until the elections and possibly a more pro western party victory.

One other possibility may be to give the GG a greater share of the revenue in return for keeping control of the 1 percent. That may be what they are after and Zaza may well know that to go down this path may lead to the GG making overly greedy demands. If a reasonable solution could be negotiated here it may be better than nothing. At the end of the day the GG still need someone to work the field, FRR also have the data on the field though if it is well developed by now then that may not be so needed.

If FRR make a good deal with the GG for them to get extra revenue in return for not taking back the 1 percent, etc then the GG could have a better deal than they would with other companies and all can move forward. FRR can then sell what they have left to a SM and we would at least all make some probably still decent return on our investment.

So some sort of document has been leaked on the Arb settlement but we are not sure if it's real or fake? Or whether if any breach of contract amounts to the GG being able to take back the lot?

Kind of sounds that we are no further along than before in understanding if we will be totally screwed come 27th July. I know Zaza has adamantly said no the GG can't revoke the license and it's just noise. The GG has apparently given FRR notice but we are unsure if it's for the whole 100 percent or just gameplay.

Meanwhile, more time has passed and Zaza has as yet come forth with no move other than diplomatic & political pressure and TV appearances. We don't know if anything has been going on behind the scenes, but as yet no deal or any sort is known to us. So we're down to about six weeks or so for anything to come out of the hat or if not seeing what if anything happens on the 27th July.

I personally would have hoped that Zaza would come forward with a deal from a SM by now or similar and the whole thing move forward. Still time no doubt but nothing of course may happen and then we're down to see what happens on the 27th July. For all the huge amounts of money invested over a long period of time there should really be a payout here.