Member Info for Phermic

Posting this on my mobile while on the tube so forgive any typos etc. Guys please try not to paraphrase too much. I would not have said ‘nothing to sell’ but could have said ‘ not unique’. The company are not reporting any significant revenues from rail at present. They may in the future? In fact the numbers reported are very tiny given they have had a number of pilots in play for some time. I have seen lots of startup tech companies and invested in a number. These have all been off market. I have invested in one tech SAAS startup recently that in less than 6 mths has booked over a £1m of revs including 3/4 million ARR. into the public sector. As you can imagine we are busy recruiting etc. 4 of us are funding this personally. The reason I mention this is just to give some background. I love tech startups. CRDL has promise and I am watching carefully. Just don’t think the board structure is correct.

Actually, don’t give an assessment if you have inside information.

No not at all. Have I not been reasonably accurate in my assessments? I have a lot of experience in tech startups across many sectors. Lack of transparency is not a good sign, there are many other red flags I have mentioned before so will not repeat. What is your assessment?

Not in prepayments - could be some fwd contract 'costs' in there but nothing material. The other receivables could be 'Amounts Recoverable' but not yet invoiced, but again no material amounts. Interesting stock figure - not sure what to make of it.

Very poor and disappointing results.

I need to correct my previous post - moving 'no growth to negative growth'. The lack of any sign of deferred revenue on the SFP continues to support my concern that no recurring revenue streams currently exist. Crazy current MCap to Rev multiple given lack of recurring.

Please review the Chairs historic updates - big red flag!

The lead times in assessing the value of this tech is long and subject to factors outside their control. Not surprised that interest rate rises are lowering the share price of technology companies yet to be in either, a high growth phase or generating sufficient EBITDA.

The subject heading needs to change to: "The investors here need to buck their ideas up"

The contract is obviously good news for the company, but it has a long way to go to justify the current MCap. TCV looks very modest given the scope claimed and I wonder what that means for a TAM in the UK.

3.5m contract "zero growth" - I was referring to the latest published results, so yes zero growth.

Would love to see the numbers behind the contract, how much is for hardware, amount expected to be delivered by Dguage for services and software etc. I suspect the gauging algos might be delivered by Dguage but time will tell.

Assume the airfield was not sold on a short term lease :)

How has it proved itself. No growth at present, finally reported by Chair. Even freight trains move forward at a slow pace :)

This means losses will be higher than plan, but maybe cash burn not that much higher due to lower W/C but who knows........the chair is not one for releasing any forward figures.

This still brings us back to the same place, Crdl is a transaction business being priced as a SAAS company. It's on AIM as it needs access to cash ....... simples. If it really had merit it would be funded by founders and debt or if really high growth then by PE. The Maestrano Chair & NEDS are treating this as a Retirement Plan :). And it works!!!

T

Sounds just the sort of share you should be buying :)

Don't qualify on my JD :)

Wow, that was not impressive. My advise for Nick and key investors, change the Chair. Nick needs a strong, competent and experienced tech chair, able to mentor a raw first time CEO.

Lots of great questions Nick -- LOL

A brief look through the numbers, no ARR and very poor comparative data. Note 2 on significant accounting policies says it all........company has taken advantage of all disclosure exemptions availablr

I don’t imagine share movements to be an inside job, more like ‘dumb’ money coming from funds looking for diversification etc. It’s all about the tech and ROI for clients. Too little info for a public company especially in tech. Always a red flag for me. However, I get the need to massage the highest valuation when in the funding phase.

I await the full accounts with interest, any disclosure of ARR at year end? Will they share revenues by sector ie Rail, other and discontinued business etc. No contract announcement either 12m or pilot ever give details. Compare other tech companies of similar size that are public, those performing disclose numbers to prove it. Leopards and spots.

Arsenal

You just don’t get it. Bigwill is an insider. This has all the trappings of a long con. Aged board who can’t hand it over to the next generation, sort of believable treasure island story that few ever check. Besides the idiotic larger investors who never paid for any independent DD ‘they’ have a trackway via AIM to fundraising (using F level corp. advisors) that will feed F level hangers on/ board until Mr E’s incapacity or a journalist picks it up. This is not new and I have no sympathy with anyone who has invested here. Pure greed.

If Messrs Day, Raby and the other poor investors ever carried out any independent DD on the Foundation contract. More importantly has Colin the auditor :)

I see my posts in January were pretty accurate. Took a lot of stick at the time from posters who can't read Income Statements, Balance Sheets and the messages behind the directors statements. This company has a lot of work to rebuild investors confidence. Manipulating accounts massively just like Capita, Autonomy, Carrillion etc. The Directors are still not behind bars!

R

The only small SAAS investments I have are off market in privately held companies with ARR of between £0.3 & £1m. I have found it very difficult to make an investment return (I am sure you can get lucky and make significant short gain profits) from small listed tech companies. On balance they are valued at significantly higher prices. The very best SAAS entities (ie high growth with a great product/mkt fit) go for PE investment at up to 10x ARR valuation. Most PE investments into growth SAAS entities are in the 5 to 7x ARR range. Compare that with MNO which must be valued at 20+ times ARR with no visibility etc.

G10. I have no problem with you holding. Just pointing out the continuing lack of visibility by this board which is purposeful. I will move on when they report appropriately. It would be nice to know a little more about the 'contract wins'. I assume we are not counting pilots and continuing extensions. How about the breakdown between traditional Drone Surveying contracts and the more sexy track mapping work. Details on headcount, product roadmap and most important of all the current value of MRR/ARR. Like other SAAS companies!