RE: Hindsight and speculation.19 Dec 2020 20:23
Happy to take up the gauntlet, as the other TR1 holders seem to have the good sense to stay away from these chat boards.
I have held for 4 years and I'm not in the business of estimating the share price in the short term. Absent announcements (which are surely unlikely in the few trading days that make up the timeframe you have given), the price seems driven by relatively small trades. We can be certain that if I tried dumping my shares in the market the price would tank, if someone tried building a TR1 holding in the market the price would soar. I have no way of knowing which of these extremes the market will come closer to in the short term.
I don't have inside information. I met the manager of the SVV fund when we were looking to make our investment. He's very impressive. He has built a portfolio whose constituents are resilient to the pandemic (or actively benefit from it) and if you want to look at the potential, I would say look at the track record. When an investment is sold, the SVV investors get their share of the cash. The sale of one of the portfolio companies, Artomatix, got Pires EUR800k back just two or three months after their initial EUR1.1m investment. The other ten or so won't all do that, but I'm confident some will do better than that.
I was not impressed with the broker note, I was expecting a more detailed analysis of the portfolio companies. The 14p is based on a general assumption about returns, is out of date now anyway, and even at the time contained errors.
Yes, I absolutely expect to see north of 20p per share - a long way north, eventually. My stake is in my pension, so I have a relatively long term horizon for it to reach this target. Years not days! But unlike most small companies I really don't see much downside risk here. But then, I would say that! I wouldn't have put a huge chunk of my pension in here if I had doubts. It is entirely possible I'm wrong - I just don't think I am on this occasion.
In the interests of full disclosure - my pension pot hits the Lifetime Allowance when the price hits 10p, so I will need to consider what to do about that as we approach that level, which I would expect to be during 2021.