Yes I broadly agree. I was in this at 3p pre-suspension, was amazed to be able to buy a load more at 6p when it relisted. Took profits on a bit of that at 8p but think I need to have the courage of my convictions - no guarantees they’ll be the winning firm in this space but it’s a distinct possibility, so I’m tempted to put a bit more in on dips, as you say.
Just looking back at some old posts and here's what I said 10 months ago when the GUN share price was DOUBLE where it is now:
"I see value here which is why I'm invested. I'm nothing like as positive about this share as Optimist is but he presents the positive case for GUN eloquently and from a heavily invested position. And he does it comprehensively and with sufficient regularity that no-one else need to!
I don't think I'm a detractor but in Optimist's eyes I must be. I guess I just come back to the point I made some weeks ago, that Gunsynd is a part time board and an admin person, and there's limits to what can be achieved. So I'm sceptical that we're being gifted such an apparently hugely valuable asset, in return for a little bit of HH's time. If either one of Oyster or Fastbase float in the next eight weeks like they're meant to, I will be amazed. I note neither have yet appeared on the London Stock Exchange page about AIM new issues, unlike others coming later this month.
I suspect we'd be better off finding a single exciting business and using the GUN shell for an RTO.
Still feel the views I expressed in March (that GUN will continue to trade at a huge discount to NAV and that Fastbase isn't going to be a bonanza) continue to be the most likely set of outcomes. Mind you, I hope I'm wrong."
Annoyed at myself for not selling out sooner despite calling this correctly. But, the more interesting point is - isn't it time the board ditched this value-destroying attempt at random investing in ridiculous gambles, and got on with using the quote and assets to get a decent RTO underway? Anyway care to make a bullish case for carrying on doing what we're doing?!
Eh? Shaun88 how can you say WH Ireland are definitely working on the IPO? The quote you include literally states they AREN'T working on it. Presumably they're going to start at some point, and will rapidly discover that if even GUN are distancing themselves from it, an actual Nomad is going to run a mile when they start the due diligence.
Kind of irrelevant to GUN's future now though. I'm glad they've walked from FB. I'm no longer as bearish as I was. But the fundamental problem that I set out a year or so ago remains - it's a small investment company trading at a chunky discount to net assets. If they intend to stay as an investment company, why would they ever trade at anything other than a chunky discount to net assets?
Ah! I’m sure we’re all relieved to hear you’re playing not ramping ;)
Yes I’m fairly obsessed by PIRI - like GUN I bought in 2-3 years ago. GUN’s been pretty grim over that time, I’ve traded it so not too bad but definitely down. PIRI I’m level - I’m also apparently the third largest shareholder. So it’s rather important to me.
I guess I’m PIRI’s equivalent of optimist lol
Risk, how can you say that? This company's main investment is up SIXTY percent - in about sixty days!! They've done a massive placing and the sell price is 33% higher than that placing price, yet barely anyone has sold out. There's corporate action going on that will either see a new board appointed or remind the existing board that shareholders are keen to see an RTO happen.
Either way saying it's "lights out" is just silly.
More broadly I genuinely don't get how you can be bullish on GUN and bearish on PIRI. Takes all sorts to make a market.
Time2Buy (and Optimist as the main bull here) surely you'd agree that link is just awful. It's got to be criminally misleading hasn't it? A casual reader would think FastBase is one of Goldman Sachs' top stock picks of 2019, would they not?
OK, I guess that means they're confident they can keep acquiring - at least, that operationally they can cope. If they can't get the share price back up it could be a struggle to make the finances work. But looks like a decent and profitable business. If they can improve performance this looks a fair share price and let's see what they can add.
Is this really such good news? If the assets were worth much wouldn't Oyster have been able to make more of them? Wouldn't Polemos have got a material amount for its loan note? I suspect the assets are essentially the right to spend cash in the hope of finding some value, and clearly no-one was convinced to do that inside Oyster. Is Gunsynd's record any better?
Maybe HH can find something to inject these assets into but I'm far from convinced the assets are worth as much as our loan notes.
Sorry to pour cold water but I think I have to accept that I've finally lost faith here. I said long ago (years?!) on here that this was an undervalued investment company, but I didn't see any reason to think it wouldn't remain undervalued. Time to have the courage of my convictions, have halved my holding here today off the back of this rally, which was as much as I could easily do. Painful loss but after cutting my holding a year ago at least I'm down to fairly minimal amounts in the scheme of things.
Did the same thing at Polemos (now DBOX) and that's turned out to be a lucky escape, I'd have been hammered if I'd stayed in through the RTO with anything other than a tiny holding.
Good luck to those who see a rational argument to stay in, and to those whose belief became blind faith a long time ago. Optimist, I'm talking to you! Genuinely, I hope you're right and I'm wrong. Good luck to you, but I'm looking elsewhere for my returns.
Curiously from the further post on GUN it appears we ARENT the note holder to Oyster. No mention of our loan note assets in the DBOX admissions document. Guess that was a million of our assets up in smoke then.
Interesting post on the GUNsynd chat board this morning suggesting their and our loan notes to Oyster have been exchanged for the entire share capital of Oyster. No idea what value is there but if there’s anything at all it’s a bonus as it’s written off in our books.
Shaun - I do not doubt you are telling the truth. I am sure W H Ireland have been engaged to advise Fastbase on its float. I’m equally sure their advice will end up being “you have no chance”. It’s just obviously a scam. They’re talking of having over a million companies signed up for their service. I run a £10m firm and network with other business leaders about digital marketing etc and have never come across them. 94% of UK companies aren’t the kind of enterprise that could use Fastbase. They’re IR35 type businesses used to bill for someone’s time, or they’re a holding company for a buy to let investment, or they’re a shop selling to consumers (Fastbase doesn’t work with people visiting sites from home). Applying that 6% ratio globally to the estimated 200m companies means that there are about 12m potential clients for Fastbase. You’re asking us to believe it’s got 10% of the potential market sewn up, yet no-one’s heard of it or reviews it online? Come on. When W H Ireland gets round to doing some due diligence they’re going to run a mile.
You’re kidding, right? We completed on two acquisitions literally two days ago, and had financial results for a period that finished 8 weeks ago last week too.
What we need is a bit of patience. Let’s see what the interims look like in the autumn. If they buy something else before that I’ll be a little worried they’re buying stuff sooner than they can get to grips with it.
If the share price is still at this level in early summer I’ll be topping up.