Member Info for phenomenonnick

How is it irrelevant? The more value that gets put in, the more it matters. The current owners of the RTO candidate are going to sell their business to us for shares. That involves printing a load of shares. If they’re issued at 0.3p it’s going to be a very different story to if they’re issed at 1p. I’m far from convinced that if I was swapping my shares in my superstar business for Polemos shares, that taking them at 3x book value would be a better option than finding a different shell or doing a clean listing.

I didn't say it wasn't Pommy. That's one of the two factors in my reasoning - the other being that it's trading way over asset value. If I owned a company looking to do an RTO why would I take shares in PLMO at 1p when it has assets of 0.3p. Rather than say PIRI which has assets equal to the current share price?

Of course they also said they were confident of "bringing a transaction to fruition in the current trading period" in April.

April 2017, that is...

Just cut my holding to 2% of my portfolio - it peaked at about 20% earlier in the year. Well done to everyone brave enough to be in this at these levels. I'm betting the reverse is at below the current nominal value, and they cut the nominal value the way Monreal has just done. If Nigel can pull off a deal at 1p or above I will be very, very impressed and have learned a valable lesson to have more faith next time! Keeping a few just so I don't feel too bad if it does actualy 10 bag or something lol.

Sure. Good luck Chesh (and all!)

... also the danger with these boards is they become echo chambers. It's hard to short AIM shares so they tend to be a herd of "stale bulls" who've held on forever in the hope things will come good, convincing each other that it really will. I don't see what's wrong in following shares when I'm not invested - at some point things might change and they might be worth another go.

Lol, fair point Chesh. I'm out of the ordinary shares but I have a load of warrants. They are currently heavily underwater and I suspect they'll expire worthless. But I check in occasionally in the hope I'm wrong!

Nixalas the July 2007 RNS said the first AmmLeach patents had been filed. So they start expiring in 9 years.

Don't see the relevance of average mine life, if the patents lasted 20 years they could cover mines that aren't yet operational. But they can't.

I guess it's possible there have been refinements to the tech which mean that in 9 years time they could still be covered by later patents.

But I'm just concerned that it's taken 11 years to get from the first announcement to where AXM is today. Doesn't feel me with confidence that the technology is all that amazing - if "no-one wants to be first" has been ingrained enough to prevent a major deployment for the first 11 years of this technology's life, what's the reason to suppose the mining industry will change its mind in the next 9?

Just thought I'd check in here. On balance glad to have got out of this with only minor wounds. Most of the patents seem to be roughly half way through their life, so the opportunity for AXM to make money from licensing appears to be closing, surely?

Why do you think it’s MMs playing games? I see you’re optimistic and I hope you’re right, but this is trading way above asset value and I can see arguments in either direction from the current share price. If you owned a company worth say £5m which was going to RTO into Polemos, would you accept shares at 3.5p? Why? If they find something great maybe it would get up to those levels after relisting, like EVRH did, but at this stage it’s pure speculation to pick a number like that when we’ve no idea what’s getting bought.

The shares get suspended then there’s a final six months to do a deal. Look at KIN to see an example - interesting potential RTO candidate announced during suspension, now a race against time to get it done by 31 August before they’re delisted. I suspect some professionals will be getting their holidays interrupted!

Hi Alex, Yup in danger of being a long term holder! Still got more in PIRI and hoping that will do something spectacular. I’m assuming PRS will be more pedestrian but much safer. Need something like that. It’s my pension I’m investing after all!

You’re investing several million quid of other people’s money? For free?!

Willec I admire your optimism but not every director of an AIM company with a big shareholding gets a big return. Have you seen what happened at MORE? It’s chaired by the guy NB has chosen to join him to be the other half of the PLMO board. Their first six months as a cash shell didn’t get curtailed by a boardroom battle, they couldn’t find a suitable candidate for an RTO, so have delisted and moved to NEX. I think they trade at around half cash value. Equivalent for PLMO would be way below the current price. I don’t want to believe things can be that bad for us here (and maybe MORE will be great in the long run) but it’s got to be in the range of possible outcomes. I’ve sold down my PLMO heavily for that reason - once bitten twice shy.

Impossible to say. Given Oyster are worth about £3m at the moment and appear to be in default on one loan note with another due imminently, I'd say they're looking a pretty unexciting candidate for a reverse.

Meaning Oyster has now defaulted on its obligations? Odd that they don't appear to have made an announcement or suspended trading on the TSX.

I don't want to always be the miserable one here but surely eg PIRI is a much better shell, in that there isn't the time pressure, there's no involvement from Mr Treacey (have you looked at MORE recently?) and the valuation is supported by decent assets.

However, as I've said before, I don't really get why Oyster would come to AIM via a reverse. Compared to a private company this would have to be a takeover of a quoted company, given the existing Oyster listing in Canada. Surely the existing Oyster would just file an admission document and list, rather than going through the faff of an overseas takeover?

Ugh. Painful. I'd been saying (most recently on 5 June) I was worried about recoverability of these loan notes. Wish I'd had the courage of my convictions and sold the lot!

On the plus side it's surely reasonable to expect SOME kind of recovery from these loan notes, which I guess explains the massive premium to asset value.

If there's no recovery from Oyster I'm guessing GUN will be taking a hit too.

Yup. Cash shell from 8 March. So roughly 3 months of trading left, if a deal hasn’t been done by 8 Sept it gets suspended, then 6 months to do a deal before it gets delisted. Most seem to struggle to do a deal in the first six months, even if they haven’t spent the first three of those having a boardroom argument and doing multiple attempts at a fundraising. Of course it could relist once delisted so that may not matter in practice. We shall see.

I too did well in AVP/EVRH. I don't think it was all that similar - it was an investing company not a cash shell with three months until suspension. And it had £2.4m of cash, which exceeded its market cap, rather than a couple of loan notes and a bit of cash towards the fees of a reverse. That said Nigel Burton seems to have a good track record. I'm holding a bunch of these shells in the hope a couple will be another EVRH or the others I've done well on. I suspect with hindsight I've been lucky though! MORE has done less well recently for instance.