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This is a fascinating board to read. So many of you want this to work.
There is zero demand for the product….push management and make them tell you how many physicians used 001 via their access program….in the midst of a pandemic…..with thousands of patients dying in the UK….their home market…..the answer is …..

Fair result all around I’d say.

Hi,
Would be interested if anyone could shed light or point me in the right direction to understand what might be going into the CMC sections of registration package. Particularly interested in source of the drug substance, master and working cell banks, fill finish site and whether all, right through the chain are from FDA approved sites.
Thanks

They bought more yesterday, today’s 8.3 saw them go above 14%. Why would you buy at this level, vote against for the price to bomb. Simply kill it and buy up all you want at 700 if you really believe in the long term.
One of their core business areas is arbitrage and that is what they are playing out now knowing that they control the outcome.
Unless their plan is to ensure they are in a position to kill it and buy up the company post share price crash, the deal is done.

Nice summary Jatw.
8.3 announcement from Elliott shows they still buying, now up to 13.5%. They basically control the deal and now just skimming off the last bits of margin. Have to admire how they have worked this.

CrystalBall…glad you are out and hopefully up, at least for your peace of mind, you may find your sell price is bang on the money.
Have watched your posts with some interest over the years, I think you ended up here as a result of the Quantum acquisition? Please believe me….if you think the Clinigen management is useless the Quantum group were clueless! Just look at what they are all doing now…..I think I could write what they knew about pharma on the back of a postage stamp using a thick crayon!
In fairness to Rigg….he knew that and got a decent price at the time.
Good luck!

Doubt it would go down to 700….if the buyers at 900+ who suddenly see the value they couldn’t a few months ago you assume they would be buyers on any dip.
Lot of the longer holders have reduced their positions so may be happy to sit tight too having reduced their exposure.
Good luck!

Oh, and the complex biologic is part of a treatment regimen with a novel cell therapy coming out of a brand new facility that has yet to be approved and manufactured by a company that has not been able to find a new CEO in six months.
Back to your timeframe and risk appetite. Good luck.

Depends on your time horizon and risk appetite. Can’t see a bid from Triton much higher than the current, maybe low 9s. No new bidder emerged. Advent had a good look last year, their deal with SOBI fell through so have plenty of firepower but seemingly not interested in coming back in.
If you have 3 years then hold on, a fair wind, regulatory approval for Iovance, them not being bought out by the wrong partner, Covid disappearing and no supply chain issues for a complex biologic and you could be in the money!

Ha, thanks jiddy.
Not doing doom and gloom at all. Know a lot of people who want this to happen and I hope for them it does. Just look at the 8.3’s though….this is moving away from being a done deal. Triton will not chase to the point there is a premium on 915. Couple of key players here, they may block the deal, hope they have a plan if/when they do.

Thanks Darren

Bionical.
One of the Leavers follow on companies I believe. Word on the street is it needs a much more experienced management team.

Andrew and Linda leaver have been big sellers in the last week. If anyone has a view on any inside feelings it will be them.
The risk to the downside is so much higher than upside for any retail investor. The hedge funds are playing a totally different game.
Have sold all my holdings. If the vote is no I may buy back in after the price bombs, you have to believe Elliot et al have a plan if that happens.

I think we are agreed, it is a long way from being a done deal.
From the limited amount I know about Triton, they won’t chase it that far. Elliot and the recent buyers will decide whether this happens. Think everyone else would happily take their money and move on!

If you think that Triton will increase their offer to that level in this macro economic environment and probably now knowing more about the inherent risks in the business then, please don’t take this the wrong way, can I have some of what you are smoking? They might get it to £9 but not much more.
If it gets rejected, enjoy the ride, will be a while before it gets here again.

Yes! They will look to group with other major holders and say they will reject unless a higher offer. The bulk of their holding has an average price down in the low 6’s. They are trying to buy leverage. They will have identified a group of likeminded and get to the 25% mark to give their threat some weight. Will be a game of call my bluff…..if Triton walk, the price will crash, Elliot will demand management changes and then implement the same strategy but with a different board and management team…. a much longer and higher risk process to get pretty much to the same point.

Whatever the price was that gave Advent a look is pretty irrelevant. Since then they have missed their numbers, issued a profit warning, won’t be getting to sell Erwinaze in the US anytime soon after the CRL last week and abruptly parted company with the CFO. If they don’t sell the company will get broken up. Doing that in the public market is a lot less attractive than selling the whole thing and let PE take the risks that come with that strategy. Hopefully the board will take a pragmatic view and sell at a reasonable premium over the average price since the profit warning.