Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Good spot Mojolse. I have now looked at the Fulcrum Metals site and seen him there. An interesting parallel path to Ajax, though a mirror image really. Fulcrum have some assets but not yet any listing and Ajax have a listing but not yet any assets.
Where have you seen the information that Fulcrum are listing next month as I could not find anything about that in the quick look I had on their website or Twitter?
From the research I did into James and Olga Simmons and Aidan O’Hara last night they all seem to be high net worth individuals who like to take significant early-stage stakes in small cap companies and it spears that they have been pretty successful at this so far.
James & Olga Simmonds and Aidan O’Hara own TR1 stakes together in three of the same companies: Prospex Oil & Gas, Drumz PLC and Ajax Resources. What is noticeable is that they have held all of these stakes for some time and neither party appears to have yet sold any shares in these companies. They appear to invest for the long-term.
In Prospex O’Hara was the first to invest on 15/06/2021 when his TR1 announced that he had acquired 11.5 million shares representing 8.03% of the company with the share price at that time approximately 2.5p. He continued to buy up to up to 4.7p by which time he announced he held 17.725 million shares worth 7% of the company as new shares being issued had diluted his holding.
The Simmonds’ first issued a TR1 on 27th October 2021 announcing that they had acquired 5.325 million shares at approx. 3p worth 3.01% of Prospex. They continued issuing TR1 until 7th November 2022 where they bought at approx. 10.75p and owned a total of 14 million shares worth 5.02% of the company
At the current share price of 14.75p Aidan O’Hara’s 6.36% stake in the company is worth £2.6 million and it looks like he is up over £2 million on this investment. James and Olga Simmonds who own 5.02% of Prospex worth £2 million also seem to be up about £1.5 million.
In Drumz Aidan O’Hara first issued a TR1 announcement on 19th April 2022 for 15.5 million share or 3.69% of the company and gradually increased this to 21.025 million shares worth 5% of the company. The Simmonds’ first announced a TR1 on 12th May 2022 was for 12.7 million shares worth 3.04% and is currently 30 million shares worth 7.14%. The value of O’Hara’s stake is currently £189k and the Simmonds’ stake is £222k. They are up less significantly here at around £60k and £50k profit respectively.
Ajax, we know about. The initial TR1 announcements for both of them were made on 14th November 2022 when O’Hara announced 1.89 million shares 4.03% and the Simmonds’ 1.55 million shares 3.31%. They have both made two further announcements and O’Hara now owns 3.04 million shares 6.49% worth £320k and the Simmonds’ 2.346 million shares 5% worth £250k. They are both already significantly up on their investments, O’Hara up by approx. £180k and the Simmonds’ by about £90k.
Lets hope that Ajax can do something similar to Prospex and increase in value from 4-5 times the original buy-in price of these investors. That would certainly make me happy.
There are at least two investors now who are both making sizeable bets on the future of Ajax and have put their money where their mouth is. When you combine this with the fact that the directors themselves own about 25% of the company then there are a small amount of people here who own a very large amount of the stock. The big question is - what do the TR1 holders know that we don't.
I'm going to do a bit of research into them this evening and see what I can find out . I'll keep you updated.
This guy put up a screenshot of the original video with the working days incorrect: https://twitter.com/sadaatumar/status/1611294605596672000
The only change I can see is that the altered days working at the bottom from 71 in the original video to 76 in the new one . It looks like they forgot to add in the 5 days for cleanup to the total days worked as adding up the days worked at the top means that 76 is correct and 71 was 5 days too short, which matches the cleanup time . Everything else seems the same.
I downloaded the original video. I'll check the difference. Give me 5 mins.
Average_Dave, when you say more verifiable news and better transparency what do you mean? I think that the company’s comms have been excellent in this drill. We seem to get an update every day on what is going on via Twitter including the current depths that we have drilled to. What more would you like to see?
Average_Dave, the CPR gave Saltfleetby a value of £25 million as the conservative case when Angus owned 49%. It also gave a P50 of £38.5 million. The value in the October 2021 CPR was also predicated on the gas price being at 64p/therm and an aggregate flow rate of 6.5mmscfd.
Obviously things have changed very significantly since then. The current gas price is 293p per therm which is over four times the value allocated in the CPR. Angus now own 100% of Saltfleetby so this is twice the value of the CPR and the flow rate after the sidetrack could be as high as 14mmscfd which again is more than twice the value allocated in the CPR.
So if we were to take the CPR figures of £25 million as the P90 then this would now be multipled:
£25 million x 24 = £100 million x 2 = £200 million x 2 = £400 million.
The P50 figure would be £38 million x 4 x 2 x 3 = £608 million.
Obviously this seems like a ridiculously high price as the market cap for the company but is it? If the company produces at 14mmscfd then even with the hedge in place they are still making £28 million per quarter and therefore £112 million per annum. Since the operating costs of the field are relatively negligible then this would still leave approx. £110 million coming in.
Is it unreasonable for a gas company that is generating a revenue of £110 million a year to be valued at between four to six times earnings? That’s for you to decide but it does not seem unreasonable to me.
Valuation-it-is 18.22
No, my calculations didn’t include the shortfall for July-August – that is what I meant by my notes being slightly out of date. However, if we do take the missing July and August hedged amounts (total 6.76mmscf) and spilt it over Jan- March 2023 then this increases the hedge volume for each month from 5.38 to 7.63. This then means that the hedge generates £3.7 million for the quarter and the unhedged value is £19 million. So even if Angus paid the entire missing July and August hedge off in Q1 2023 then they would still make a total of £22.6 million.
At 14 mmscfd it simply doesn’t matter what needs to be paid off when, the money is there to do it easily.
By my calculations, assuming that Lady of Aim is right and the company does end up producing 14mmscfd after the completion of the sidetrack and the addition of the second compressor and booster compressor then Angus will be making an enormous amount of money each month.
If we assume that 14mmscfd comes online in January 2023 then we have the following calculations:
Jan 2023 forward gas price £3.16 per therm
Feb 2023 forward gas price £3.23 per therm
March 2023 forward gas price £3.13 per therm
From my notes (which may be slightly out of date but not enough to make a significant difference) the hedged amounts for each of these three months are 5.38mmscfd and the hedged price is £0.525.
Hedged Revenue
5.38mmscfd per day equals 1,682,564 therms per month that go to the hedge and this will generate a revenue of £854,613 each month (total £2.5 million in Q1).
Unhedged Revenue
The remaining unhedged 8.62mmscfd equals 2,695,855 therms produced that can be sold on the open market and at the forward prices from above this would generate £8.5 million in January, £8.7 million in February and £8.4 million in March.
Combined revenue
The total hedged and unhedged revenue at 14mmscfd production in Q1 2023 would therefore generate £28 million for Angus in Q1 2023.
I am going to keep building a position in here at these levels as I think that this has the potential to multi-bag in short order. After all, for the market cap to get to £12 million then at the current shares in issue the share price would be 28p. That is a three times return from today’s levels and with the right news it is easily achievable. It is going to need some more buying or some concrete comms from the company to move up again if you ask me but because there are so few shares in issue it only takes the slightest push for the share price to jump significantly and it will be difficult to get in at a good price the next time it rockets.
This is not one to watch day to day in my opinion, but is one to build a stake in and then wait for the day it flies. It will definitely be worth much more than it is today as soon as news comes or any significant buying happens.
I assume that the two parties who have acquired 7% of the company over the last few days will expect not to have to hold too long to start seeing a return on their investment but even if you are spiked just now I would not worry about it, as I can’t see that we will be at these levels for long.. As we have seen this morning and Friday, when this moves it really flies and there is big money to be made when it does.
This has already shown it has the to move fast legs and when any significant buys come in it is going to fly. The two TR1s that have been released show that approx. 7% of shares have recently been bought and this has driven the share price up to more than double, and at the spike almost treble.
The key point is that because there are so few shares in issue then this 7% that has been bought and announced only equates to 3.3 million shares traded or less than £300k even at the current price. I think that the price will settle around here for now but as soon as any news comes in or additional buys arrive then we can expect it to do a similar rise again. After all, the market cap is still only £4 million.
I said on Friday that with under 50 million shares in issue that this would go like a rocket but I was not expecting a 100% rise today. Imagine what is going to happen when they announce that an asset has gone in this. It has huge potential. I am going to increase my position here significantly today. Just need to time it right.
Which means the perfect time for a good entry point, even with Friday's rise. As has been mentioned below, with under 50 million shares in issue and even less in the free float, this will go up like a rocket when any news come out. Potential to multi-bag in short order here.
Not bad for a SPAC. I'll be keeping an eye on this one.
Thanks HITS - much appreciated.
I am trying to update my calculations and cannot find where to source the month by month gas production figures for Angus but I keep seeing that other people have got them on twitter. Could anyone help me out by providing the link please? Thanks very much.
DRB83 - the hedge volumes can be seen on page 49 of the Saltfleetby Reserves Valuation Report here: https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
DRB83 – I made a spreadsheet on this ages ago based on the figures that Angus published for the hedge (they are available on the company website somewhere).
The total amount of gas hedged in therms between July 2022 (the start) and June 2023 is 18,120,397 (an average of 1,812,040 therms per month). At a production rate of 5.88 mmscf/d then this would give a total production between September 2022 and June 2023 of 18,389,357 which is more than enough to cover the hedge.
In terms of cash generated, remember that the value of the hedged gas over this time period delivers Angus £8 million and then the excess of 268,960 would deliver another £2 million at an average price of £6.93 per therm. So I would expect Angus to make £1 million per month over the next 10 months without the sidetrack and at these current production rates. This is more than enough to both service the loan and to cover the cost of drilling the sidetrack.