Member Info for Persiantrader

Historic prices mean nothing now, its not the same company. 2020 (Year-End): Average working interest production was 74,900 barrels of oil per day (bopd). Now (2025 Outlook): Production is expected to average between 40,000 and 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboepd) 2026 Outlook: Production is expected to continue to fall in 2026 to 34,000-42,000 kboepd if new wells do not offset natural decline. Oil decline and Debt will kill the company or turn it into a zombie debt payment machine.. They have proved over the last 4 years they are terrible at drilling.... website is terrible, investor relations is terrible.. communication to the market is terrible WHICH KEEPS THE SP UP.. no clue how to produce oil...

worse case Do 34,000 bopd x $65 oil = what ?

what is the debt ? ....

if you are looking at historic prices then Tullow is not 74,000 bopd x $65 oil

If it was the SP will be 40p....

but its not

Looking Good

Wow at $70 oil We should be pushing past 58p-62p now ... Oil flying up.. So good for AET.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AET:LON?window=1M

Immediate Boost (Early 2026): Upon completion of the Etu Energias acquisition (expected Q1 2026), Afentra's net production is anticipated to increase immediately to around 7,500–8,000 bopd (from pre-completion levels in the ~6,368 bopd range referenced earlier).

2026 Drilling Campaign: A major drilling and workover program is planned to start in 2026 across key Angolan blocks (3/05, 3/05A, and 3/24). This encompasses up to two infill wells (such as Impala-2 and Pacassa SW-1) and three heavy workovers in the Palanca field on Block 3/05. These could provide a gross production uplift of up to 12,500 bopd (net 3,750 bopd to Afentra), with potential reserves/resources exposure of up to 120 mmbbo gross (36 mmbbo net), at projected net capex of $34–39 million.

Long-Term Target: Afentra's management continues to aim for gross production from Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A to reach approximately 40,000 bopd in the longer term. This is supported by sustained investment, satellite field developments, and the 2026–2027 activities, progressing from recent average levels around ~21,350 bopd (H1 2025 baseline).

Analyst Valuations: Cavendish's latest NAV model maintains a core target price of 90.2p, based purely on existing 2P reserves. Including the additional 2C contingent resources, the total NAV rises to 159.5p, pointing to substantial upside as these resources are de-risked through appraisal and development.

Resource Upgrade: Afentra's January 13, 2026 announcement detailed a more than 400% increase in 2C contingent resources. Total working interest 2C now stands at 87.3 mmboe (gross 302.6 mmboe) across Blocks 3/05, 3/05A, and 3/24. This breaks down to 36.6 mmboe WI from independently audited discoveries on 3/05 and 3/05A, plus a management estimate of 37.0 mmboe WI from Block 3/24 discoveries (with further potential upside from producing fields on Block 3/05, where only limited 2C of ~13.8 mmboe WI is currently booked).At the current Brent price of ~$69.30–$69.50/bbl, the ~66.4 mmboe contingent resource increase (as framed in valuation discussions) translates to gross unrisked revenue potential of around $4.6 billion for Afentra's interest (66.4 million boe × ~$69.40 average ≈ $4.60 billion+). This strengthens the overall asset value case, supporting the 159.5p total NAV potential. The 90p core target is conservative, capturing existing reserves plus a measured portion of the new resource growth.

AET Analysts Target prices:

Shore Capital 113.00p

Canaccord Genuity 90.00p

Peel Hunt Limited 85.00p

Hold your shares.. make some money.

Oil price is rising and for each $1 is pure profit .

Yes cargo is due. Looking very good. Oil ^^

Targeting 85p-90p Short term

No, it's highly unlikely that any lender would provide new financing or refinance Tullow Oil's debt without requiring some form of commodity hedging, especially given the company's current profile.Tullow is actively engaging with bondholders, commodity traders, and other private funding sources for refinancing ahead of the May 2026 maturity.

Any realistic lender in Tullow's position would demand downside protection via hedges (likely multi-year collars/floors in the $60s or lower to guarantee repayments), repeating the 2021-2024 pattern. poor terms now could lock in capped upside and prolonged debt servitude

IF they sign now and oil gets to $100 it won't mean anything for tullow. Tullow will be a debt w h'ore. at low oil prices to pay back lenders for 3 years

look do me a favour. before you judge what i say. copy this statement and paste it into any ai and ask it if i'm right or wrong.

if tullow goes ahead with a refinance now, just like before, they'll be forced into seriously low hedging. in 2021 with around 59,200 bpd (tullow agreed to protect 75% of its oil production price for a period of 24 months (starting may 2021) and 50% for a further 12 months (through may 2024) 3 years !!!!!!!!!!!!!! the hedges primarily used collars, weighted average of $51–$68/bbl to guarantee debt repayments.................. now today it will pin them to $64 oil, right? no upside, just like before...remember when oil spiked past $100 — tullow couldn't cash in or clear debts and sp was stuck.. that spike in oil should have cleared debts, but it didn't.

the company needs oil to hit $75 immediately !!! before signing anything. and now oil production is much lower... its like 40,000 bopd and declining. .i mean, this is one big fkng gamble... what if they haven't signed anything yet, oil drops below $60 even for a few days, and they have to take another 3 year hedge on $60? no upside... tullow makes nothing for years to come, just like before... just a $1.2b debt repayment *****...

If today's RNS went out on January 7th you may have seen 150p. HBR is a great company. Just needs higher oil price.

(if u r looking for a side bet > AET) ex tullow and HBR team

Lets Goo !!! back to 50p for sure

Building on the recent 400% jump in 2C contingent resources (to ~87 mmboe net WI), showing major upside.

Planned 2026–2027 infill drilling + workover program on producing Block 3/05: up to 2 new wells + 3 workovers in Palanca field.

Aims for significant near-term production boost (potential gross uplift to 12,500 bopd) and reserves/resources exposure up to ~120 mmbbl, via low-capex infrastructure-led ops ($115–130m gross).

Progress on fast-tracking discoveries in Block 3/24 (operated, FID targeted late 2026) + maturing onshore Kwanza Basin opportunities for early production/exploration.

Overall: Afentra positioning for scalable, value-driven growth in offshore/onshore Angola – from production optimisation to converting contingent resources into reserves.

Very Positive !!

1. Key Operational and Corporate Milestones

Finalization of Etu Energias Acquisition: The Sale & Purchase Agreement for additional interests in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A is expected to close in Q1 2026, providing an immediate boost to net production.

Onshore Kwanza Basin Updates: Completion of the acquisition and interpretation of eFTG (enhanced Full Tensor Gravity) data for blocks KON4, KON15, and KON19 is expected by Q1 2026, which will help define future exploration targets.

January Crude Oil Lifting: Following the 2025 year-end, a scheduled lifting of approximately 500,000 barrels of oil is expected in January 2026, which will contribute to cash flow.

Progress on 2026 Drilling Campaign: Following light-well interventions in 2025, prep work for the 2026 multi-well drilling campaign (2 new wells and 3 workovers in Block 3/05) is expected to accelerate.

Presentation at Pareto Conference: The company is scheduled to present at the Pareto Conference on January 22, 2026, likely offering further details on production targets and asset development.

Targeting 85p-90p Short term (it will happen)

The Management team is fantastic. Should see 50p+ this month.

SP Moving up fast --> https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AET:LON?window=6M

Awaiting the ETU acquisition confirmation soon. Key Benefits for Afentra:

Enhanced Production and Reserves: The deal provides an immediate uplift in production and adds material reserves potential to Afentra's portfolio. The additional stakes in Block 3/05 and 3/05A significantly enhance its overall presence and resource base in Angola.

Strategic Consolidation: By increasing its working interest in the blocks, Afentra strengthens the alignment within the joint venture partnership, which is focused on re-developing the substantial upside of these multi-billion barrel assets. This closer alignment improves operational efficiency and decision-making.

Increased Cash Generation: The assets in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A are described as high-margin and cash-generative. Increasing its stake directly translates to a greater share of the profits, with the Etu interest alone having generated a $14 million pre-tax profit in 2024.

Value-Focused Capital Deployment: The transaction uses a disciplined structure, with a modest upfront payment of $23 million and additional contingent payments tied to oil prices and production performance. This approach ensures value creation and aligns financial commitments with asset success.

Targeting 85p-90p Short term.

Love these opportunities. Very Positive !!!

Immediate Boost (Early 2026):

Following the completion of the Etu acquisition in Q1 2026, Afentra's net production is expected to increase immediately to approximately 7,500–8,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from a pre-completion rate of around 6,368 bopd.

2026 Drilling Campaign:

A significant drilling and workover program is scheduled to begin in 2026 across its key Angolan assets (Blocks 3/05, 3/05A, and 3/24), which is a primary driver for substantial production growth.

Long-Term Target:

The company's management has indicated a long-term goal for gross production from Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A to reach approximately 40,000 bopd over time, up from an average of ~21,350 bopd in H1 2025, through continued investment and development of satellite fields.

Analyst Valuations:

Broker Cavendish recently updated its NAV model, setting a core target price of 90.2p based solely on existing 2P reserves. Their total NAV, which includes the additional 2C contingent resources, rises substantially to 159.5p, suggesting significant potential upside as these resources are de-risked and monetised.

Resource Upgrade:

Afentra announced a significant upgrade in its 2C contingent resources across its Angolan portfolio on January 13, 2026. An increase of over 400%

At just $60/bbl oil price, the 66.4 mmboe increase represents approximately $4 billion in gross unrisked revenue potential for Afentra

The 66.4 mmboe increase in contingent resources represents a gross revenue potential of $4 billion at $60 oil. In valuation terms, this upgrade adds roughly £158 million in unrisked asset value, supporting a total potential Net Asset Value (NAV) of 159.5p per share. A 90p target is justified as it represents the "core" value of existing reserves plus a conservative portion of this newly identified 400% resource growth.

Key milestones and expected developments include:

Immediate Boost: (Early 2026): Following the completion of the Etu acquisition in Q1 2026, Afentra's net production is expected to increase immediately to approximately 7,500–8,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from a pre-completion rate of around 6,368 bopd.

2026 Drilling Campaign: A significant drilling and workover program is scheduled to begin in 2026 across its key Angolan assets (Blocks 3/05, 3/05A, and 3/24), which is a primary driver for substantial production growth.

Long-Term Target: The company's management has indicated a long-term goal for gross production from Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A to reach approximately 40,000 bopd over time, up from an average of ~21,350 bopd in H1 2025, through continued investment and development of satellite fields.

AET looking very very Good right now. Targeting 85p-90p Short term.

AET asset-level breakeven is just $35 per barrel with no debt !

5 analysts now have Afentra price target @ 95p ..... which is the average price !!!!

take a look --> https://uk.investing.com/equities/sterling-energy

Well done Paul and the team.

Fantastic. Still targeting 85p-90p short term

Well done Paul and the team