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Keep your eyes on the Brent Oil Price ! Is the Market turning ? its looking good.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CBl5Dgoi/?symbol=ICEEUR%3ABRN1%21

Hopefully we can find a Good CEO, keep reducing Debt and recover the SP to where it shoud be. Great to see SP moving higher !

@snake37 The situation has been priced in, so if TLW is cleared (most expect when is cleared) then it should be back into the 30's again .. the average 12-month sp forecast from 10 analysts covering Tullow is currently 53p.

see for youtself ....https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares/valuation

@Moosteroil this is Fantastic as Dr John mahama ( now president elect) is Pro Tullow, pro Oil, knows the company very well and openly wants to increase oil production. actuallly in 2015 he First Lady of Ghana Lordina Mahama named the FPSO for the TEN Fields after former president John Evans Atta Mills. In 2016 John Mahama opened the production valve for the TEN Oil Field. I expect to see positive news from January about developing the Oil fields and attracting more investors.

I really do not know the outcome for Tullows Tax Case, but Ghana Revenue try it on with others .....just a week ago The Ghanaian government scrapped or fully withdrew a huge tax liability assessment of US $672 million tax bill for MTN Group. take a look: https://www.connectingafrica.com/regulation/ghana-cancels-mtn-s-hefty-tax-bill

Tullow will make $400m profit this year. in 2016 Tullows Debt was $5b in 2020 it was $3.2b in 2024 its $1.4b in 2025 it will be less than $1b. All the stupid talk about debt refinaning trouble... so now they are faced with issues after paying off $4b in debt ??? really shut the f up. Tullow is on track to be Debt free in the next 3 or 4 years and $70 oil is ok for Tullow. They dont have those costly hedges in place any more, the debt interests are being reduced massively and we just need a CEO who can talk to the market, have a peronality and drill a little bit, find a Kenya partner. Kenya is 120,000 bopd FOUND its drill ready. $3b oil revenue a year just sitting there....

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares

Tullow Debt:

2020: $2.4b

2021 $2.1b

2022 $1.8b

2023 $1.6b

2024 $1.4b

2025. less than $1b

TLW will make $400m Profit this year !!!

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares/future

Back in !! Finally !! So Thats why the Stock price was going up last 2 days. So happy.

Tullow Does not Pay UK Windfall Tax !!

2024 Half Year Results.

Harbour Energy PLC will announce its 2024 Half Year Results on 8 August 2024. The live webcast will take place at 09:00 BST. A conference call is available for those unable to join the webcast.

https://www.harbourenergy.com/investors/

Yes Decision on the UK Government website

Acquisition of 46.5% of Harbour Energy plc by BASF

notice of a final order

Published 30 July 2024

1. Following a detailed national security assessment, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has made a Final Order pursuant to section 26 of the National Security and Investment Act 2021 (“the Act”), which comes into force on 30 July 2024.

2. The Parties who are subject to the order are:

i. Harbour Energy plc.

ii. BASF Handels- und Exportgesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung (BASF).

3. BASF Handels- und Exportgesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung will gain control of the qualifying entity by acquiring 46.5% of Harbour Energy plc.

4. The Acquisition is a trigger event under section 8(2)(a) of the Act.

5. This acquisition is the result of a business combination agreement entered into by Harbour Energy plc, BASF and LetterOne Holdings S.A (LetterOne) to transfer Wintershall DEA assets to Harbour Energy plc in exchange for cash and equity in Harbour Energy plc to Wintershall DEA’s shareholders, BASF and LetterOne.

6. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has approved the acquisition of a 46.5% shareholding of Harbour Energy plc by BASF subject to the following conditions:

A requirement on Harbour Energy plc to give the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster notice in advance of either or both of:

i. any share conversion after which LetterOne would own 10% or more of the Ordinary Shares in Harbour Energy plc;

ii. the appointment of a Harbour Energy plc board member by LetterOne.

This Final Order and the conditions imposed within it enable the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster to consider further the exercise of his powers under the Act at that time.

7. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster considers that these measures mitigate any risks to national security in relation to interruption of Harbour Energy’s UK continental shelf operations, by Russia or affiliated entities, which would impact the gas supply to UK customers.

8. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster considers that the Final Order is necessary and proportionate to mitigate the risk to national security.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/acquisition-of-465-of-harbour-energy-plc-by-basf-handels-und-exportgesellschaft-mit-beschrankter-haftung-notice-of-a-final-order/b58e835d-43da-4fca-84dd-4c42c564c05e

Harbours Valuation HBR (£3.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£13.72)

Trading at 77.9% below our estimate of its fair value

4 analysts forecast in 2025 $10.297b rev $1.521b earnings

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-hbr/harbour-energy-shares

IF you are new to harbour and wondering why the SP is so strong its because we are to acquire Wintershall Dea’s upstream assets for $11.2bn

The assets included in the deal are located in Algeria, Argentina, Denmark, Egypt, Germany, Libya, Mexico and Norway. the acquisition will add 1.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of 2P reserves to its portfolio at an estimated cost of $10/boe and boost production by more than 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

It will complete sometime in q4

The market will know more next Thursday.

Wintershall Dea, headquartered in Kassel, is being wound up.

https://www.hna.de/kassel/wintershall-in-kassel-was-passiert-mit-mitarbeitern-so-ist-der-plan-bei-93195164.html

also see this: "Pain of farewell at Wintershall in Kassel"

https://www.hna.de/kassel/wir-erleben-derzeit-viele-letzte-male-93195800.html

you will need to google translate the page from German to English

CNH has approved Wintershall Dea México's request to drill the Kan-2DEL delineation well in shallow waters. The authorization, formalized through Resolution CNH.04.01/2024, pertains to Contract CNH-R03-L01-AS-CS-14/2018.

The Kan-2DEL well is in the Salina Basin Province of the Isthmus, in Tabasco. Its primary aim is to assess the extent of Upper Miocene reservoirs previously discovered by the Kan-1EXP well. These reservoirs include the UM2, UM3, UM4, UM5, UM6, UM7, and UM9 formations, which consist of turbidite sandstones deposited in channel environments. CNH granted approval following a thorough analysis, confirming that the drilling meets the corresponding criteria.

In 1Q24, Wintershall allocated investment to the Kan-1EXP, situated off the coast of Tabasco, which marked a significant milestone for Wintershall Dea. Covering an approximate area of 527.89km2 in the Cuencas del Sureste petroleum province, the discovery holds immense potential in shallow waters. CNH's governing body approved the evaluation program and the initial work and budget plan for the years 2023 and 2024. The contract operates under a shared production model and targets the evaluation and delineation of the discovered reservoir through the drilling of the Kan-1EXP Well for the Upper Miocene.

https://mexicobusiness.news/oilandgas/news/wintershall-deas-exploration-well-receives-approval

https://wintershalldea.com/en/where-we-are/mexico

Preliminary estimates indicate the discovery may contain 200 to 300 million barrels oil equivalent in place.

360p isn't a magic number for most long term holders. if 2025 is 1.5b earnings and 10b rev based on analysts forecasts, then how can the market cap in 2025 be below even 4b. Also we currently have no debt and 3 other acquisitions on the table based on the webcast. For me this is an exciting time.

Does anyone know how much the FTSE 100 index automatically buys when Harbour moves into the FTSE 100 ? what type of SP jump would occur? how do you work it out ?

Unfortunately, the rejection of the FDP means the company will be forced to write off the entire $242.2 million book value. Tullow has been posting negative book value over the past four years with 2023 book value clocking in at -$359.4M. A negative book value means that a company's liabilities are greater than its assets, implying the company is possibly insolvent. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kenyan-Government-Rejects-Tullow-Oils-Field-Plan.html

HBR £3.09 is trading below our estimate of fair value £13.70

4 analysts say 2025 revenue will be $10.2b and earning $1.52b ???

Trading at 77.4% below our estimate of its fair value

HBR's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 192.8% to 33.1% over the past 5 years.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-hbr/harbour-energy-shares

Half year update is 7th Aug 2024. Looking forward to a Good report. Oil Price has been above guidance.

Yes if Oil is sat at $70 then 25p absolutely but $80+ is great for tullow. $70 vs $86 oil is 160m free cash flow extra This is big money..... if oil goes above $90 then its 260m free cash flow $100 its 360m ...... so how can the sp be 25p at $86 and 25p for $70 or 25p for $80 oil and 25p for $100..... people just making up crap....... The sp will go back to 40p IF oil remains high especially above $90. Tullow Will be paying dividend in 2026. there is no way the SP can be 30p if they release £100m div .... do the maths. The Future value is enormous https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares

Date Broker Recomm. Old target price New target price Notes

05/07/2024 Jefferies Underperform 30.00p 25.00p Reiteration

13/06/2023 Barclays Overweight - 49.00p Reiteration

26/05/2023 Barclays Overweight 56.00p 49.00p Reiteration

23/05/2023 Peel Hunt Limited Buy - 80.00p Reiteration

12/04/2023 Jefferies Underperform 40.00p 25.00p Downgrade

13/03/2023 Canaccord Genuity Buy 62.00p 54.00p Reiteration

26/01/2023 Barclays Overweight 63.00p 62.00p Reiteration

26/01/2023 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 83.00p 56.00p Reiteration

17/11/2022 Barclays Overweight 67.00p 68.00p Reiteration

31/10/2022 Barclays Overweight 67.00p 67.00p Restart Coverage

21/10/2022 Barclays Overweight 79.00p 83.00p Reiteration

16/09/2022 Berenberg Bank Buy 95.00p 90.00p Reiteration

15/07/2022 Berenberg Bank Buy 95.00p 95.00p Reiteration

13/07/2022 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 82.00p 83.00p Reiteration

22/06/2022 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 82.00p 82.00p Restart Coverage

10/06/2022 Berenberg Bank Buy 70.00p 95.00p Reiteration

23/05/2022 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 74.00p 78.00p Reiteration

11/05/2022 Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight - 63.00p Reiteration

11/04/2022 Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight - 63.00p Reiteration

07/04/2022 Canaccord Genuity Speculative Buy 67.00p 75.00p Reiteration

06/04/2022 Barclays Overweight 85.00p 87.00p Reiteration

29/03/2022 Barclays Overweight 85.00p 85.00p Reiteration

15/03/2022 Berenberg Bank Buy 70.00p 70.00p Reiteration

10/03/2022 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 77.00p 74.00p Reiteration

09/03/2022 Barclays Overweight - 75.00p Reiteration

24/02/2022 Barclays Overweight - - Reiteration

15/02/2022 Barclays Overweight - 75.00p Reiteration

04/02/2022 Barclays Overweight 60.00p 75.00p Upgrade

02/02/2022 Canaccord Genuity Speculative Buy 75.00p 67.00p Reiteration

28/01/2022 RBC Capital Markets Sector Perform 90.00p 80.00p Reiteration

14/01/2022 Berenberg Bank Buy 65.00p 70.00p Reiteration

14/01/2022 Barclays Equal-Weight - 60.00p Reiteration

11/01/2022 Canaccord Genuity Speculative Buy 70.00p 75.00p Reiteration

10/12/2021 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 62.00p 79.00p Upgrade

19/11/2021 Canaccord Genuity Speculative Buy 65.00p 70.00p Reiteration

17/11/2021 Barclays Equal-Weight 60.00p 60.00p Reiteration

11/11/2021 Peel Hunt Limited Hold 65.00p 65.00p Reiteration

25/10/2021 Peel Hunt Limited Hold - 65.00p Reiteration

14/10/2021 Berenberg Bank Buy 55.00p 65.00p Upgrade

13/10/2021 Canaccord Genuity Speculative Buy 60.00p 65.00p Upgrade

08/10/2021 Barclays Equal-Weight 40.00p 60.00p Reiteration

06/08/2021 Barclays Equal-Weight 34.00p 40.00p Reiteration