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I can't believe the drop. What a great time to be alive. Oil will be $200/$300 by the end of the Year as Global 6 million bopd deficit is looming.
I need you to sit somewhere quiet now and think this through. I'm going to lay out the scenarios, and you have to come to your own conclusion.
Today's oil market deficit is ~2 million b/d. If you want to be conservative, let's call it ~1 million b/d.
Oil demand growth from 2022-2030: ~6 to ~7 million b/d.
U.S. oil production growth from 2022-2030: 2 to 3 million b/d.
OPEC+ spare capacity: 1.5 million b/d.
Iran: 1.4 million b/d.
Canada: 500k b/d.
Russia: -3 million b/d.
Non-OPEC ex-US production: -2 million b/d.
Net: -6.4 million b/d.
I don't know about you, but in terms of margin of safety, this is a very large cushion. The key figure in all of this is demand growth, and so unless you expect the global economy to go into a recession for 8 years, we think the odds of demand going to 108 to 110 million b/d is highly plausible.
As you can see, the odds are heavily skewed to a structural oil market deficit on the horizon. You can slice and dice this analysis however you like, but the result is the same. We are headed for a structural oil supply shortage. And with Russia already seeing a peak in oil production prior to this Ukraine invasion, the existing decline will only get worse.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513494-think-longer-term-here-what-happens-to-russian-oil-production-from-here-on-out
take a look. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLW.L/analysis?p=TLW.L
Look at the "recommendation trend" also its all Strong buy, Buy, Hold.
The SP will float upwards without any news.
yes 100% Correct.
Kenya is a super charger.
To be honest SP started moving up 2 weeks ago.
**If Oil stays above $100** then the SP should creep up every single month as we get closer to May 2023. I'm not ramping I'm just saying the future "business as normal" pumping exactly the same amounts in 2023, 2024 for Tullow is enormous profits. Tullow is heading in the right direction. Look at the chart, I believe we will be restored again to our historic prices. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TLW:LON?hl=en&window=5Y
its very popular, the Fair value a few months ago was floating around 60p. now its skyrocketed to £1.69 because of the future profits.. its huge like 400 Mill. which 400 mill x 10 is normally 4b valuation. which brings us back to £3 (again)
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares
Tullow is the most undervalued stock in the Oil Sector and rightly so as it was in deep trouble, now things have changed.
May 2023 is when the first lot of hedges come off. Very happy to keep adding at these prices.
(been invested on/off since 17p, 6 figures up in profit. been there when sp was stuck at 25p bashed daily by the shorters in Mayfair) and now 2022 Check my previous posts on TLW, I was certainly critical especially on the Hedges. Now Really feels like this is starting to pick up momentum now, as for the future especially in 12 months 25% comes off the Hedges. SP will rise every passing month we get closer. Tullow SP will have a 1 year lag. BUT SP will explode when Hedges fall off in 2023 and again in 2024 let alone major drilling and Kenya news. I am invested in the Future Price. We will see £3 again by 2025 because Oil price is not going down. Tullow profits will be so high. Everything feels different now. ive put my money where my mouth is.
Resolution 16: Share purchases
This Resolution is proposed as a special resolution and seeks
shareholder approval to allow the Company to make market
purchases (within the meaning of section 693(4) of the Act)
of the Company’s ordinary shares on such terms and in such
manner as the Directors may determine from time to time,
subject to the limitations set out in this Resolution. If this
Resolution is passed, the Company will be authorised to
purchase up to a maximum of 143,623,893 ordinary shares,
representing approximately 10 per cent of the Company’s
issued ordinary share capital on 18 April 2022, being the latest
practicable date prior to the publication of this Notice.
This Resolution also sets out the minimum and maximum
price that the Company may pay for purchases of its ordinary
shares. If this Resolution is passed, the authority for the Company
to purchase its ordinary shares will remain effective until the
conclusion of the AGM to be held in 2023 or 30 June 2023,
whichever is the earlier.
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/1816/5064/0840/Final_Notice_of_Meeting_-_20.04.2022.pdf
will it happen again ? 4 real ?
this boat has hit an Iceberg. This isn't ramp the SP up because we got a buyer. this is the worst possible situation.
im not de-ramping, I sold up today.
this is a disaster, sold my 800,000 shares !!! its possible to lose everything very quickly :(
Do you realize this should be well over £1 when things settle down.
https://www.dailyfx.com/gold-price
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/POG:LON?window=MAX <-- See the Spike in SP over £4.00 when Gold was at the SAME PRICE TODAY !
Buy........ Hold.... Forget about it for 6 months....
https://www.moex.com/en/issue.aspx?board=TQBR&code=POGR&utm_source=www.moex.com&utm_term=pog
When fighting stops sp snaps back to 25p but its still very low actually 77p is fair value (see link)
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-pog/petropavlovsk-shares
POG sells all gold to russia government. I dont understand? is POG safe from any sanction ? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/24/west-could-target-russia-gold-reserves-over-ukraine-says-boris-johnson
Boris Johnson now wants to go for Russia's gold reserves in his bid to tighten the screws on Moscow, saying Putin has already crossed a red line by bombing civilians ?
Is this going to be an issue for POG now ?
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/boris-johnson-russia-putin-gold/
im not bitter, and yes each penny was costing me £14,000. dam right i sold out, market was waiting for drilling report but HE1 tweeted about drilling hadn't even started misleading the market and sp dropped, they retracted it days later but dmg was done. I sold out and called it incompetence at around 23p and drilling was a disaster.......... in December 2021 I was the only person challenging about danger in not booking the rig, the sp was around 7p at the time and i thought this isnt looking good LOOK AT MY POSTS. And I was getting grief. Who gives you the right to act as the police on this fourm. I have said I am looking to invest and I can write what i want to write, and If i see danger I will call it out. as it stands if you dont book a rig this SP is going to be destroyed. and if you do book a rig the SP is still going to be smashed by a 25% by a placing.
if he1 doesn't book this rig, its GG for 2022, more additional costs for waiting, sp probably sits at 5p until 2023.... but if you book a rig which can happen and everyone is saying "i told you so".... wait a second, because i'm not excited at all. This rig and the entire Texan rig crews day rate, if you book 2-3 holes will cost you about 8-13 million maybe more, you are not fully funded any more. That is why they passed the resolution at the AGM 2 days ago to introduce 200 million extra shares, that is a 25% RIP in SP and robbed share value..... some of you think is just a drop in share price and the sp will bounce up? but its worse than that. Let's say ITV own's 1% of this business, that is 6,160,000 shares and he is super happy about this, everyone at chess club knows about it, he named his cat "David" and dog "Rukwa" and even has a tshirt printed "hey Latorre I own 1% of HE1, I love you". .........ok everyone get your calculators out and divide ITV's share holding 6,160,000/616,000,000 (616,000,000 is total shares in circulation) wow look at that, its a nice round 1% "i'm ITV I own 1% in HE1 and very happy about this".....ok now add the additional 200,000,000 shares just passed by the shareholders at the AGM 2 days ago... now do ITV's shareholding again.... 6,160,000/816,000,000 and what do you get? "Wow...my name is ITV, who stole my shares ?? was that you muscles ?" what about my "I own 1% of he1 tshirt I printed just for latorre... but i don't own 1% any more... I have to reprint it, I now own just 0.0075... my poor tshirt isn't true any more" I can't wear this at chess club...
https://youtu.be/7Ypn6b40XFA?t=1920
listen to the comment from the Chairmen.
the Chairmen is saying "If we can" secure a rig.
If I posted my own opinion "if you can get a Rig" I would get shot down... but now the chairmen has said it.