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The market seems to be missing the significance of the Sekaka acquisition. Look at a map, and note the location of the assets relative to not just Sunland and the Maibwe PLs, but also Ghaghoo (itself up for grabs by a troubled owner) and Karowe, all within a stone’s throw (well, relatively, by African geographical scales lol).
Draw your own conclusions, but I believe this is the basis for a very interesting year or two ahead for BOD in Botswana. And before that hopefully something from Thorny/Mars - drilling completed last week, data processing shouldn’t take toooo long so hopefully we’ll know quite soon.
Well that, TBTT, is the $246m question!
Another tweet - shows the moment they intersected the kimberlite, pretty cool shot: https://twitter.com/BotswanaDiamond/status/1331592361797935105?s=20
Morning TBTT - i'm no geologist so defer to those who know more, but I gather they are using 4 different types of technology this time including gravity coring - which is the most expensive to do, but gives definitive results - so we should know what's what with strong certainty when they get the results, and it will mean they can determine which of the four targets (one Thorny River, three Mars) is (are?!) the most interesting. As we know it's widely believed that the Mars pipe has much more to give, but it's interesting that they are also homing in on one of the Thorny River prospects. They must think there's something there. We'll soon find out!
Hi Echo
My view too that yes it does seem to be doing a good job of quietly acquiring outstanding world-class-quality assets at fire-sale prices while no-one is looking, and assets which are significantly improving the company's position on the axis of the exploration/development/commercial production timescale, which means prospects for long-awaited returns to shareholders are being enhanced and quickened significantly.
It's in a good position to do more yet too - in Botswana there's Maibwe still to try and do, and there are other sector-restructuring opportunities in play in the market such as the Ghaghoo monster which has yet to be resolved by Gem Diamonds - who knows on that one - but the speed and efficiency with which the approval was granted for Sekaka is clearly a great indication of the Company's standing in the the most influential of Government circles.
Meanwhile, in Zimbabwe, again who knows, but it sounds like the Vast/Marange situation may well be on the cusp of resolution (at bloody last!) and with Mark Mbhudhu (ex Vast) now in charge at ZCDC being good friends with BOD, it seems reasonable to suggest BOD's heading for a great position in Zim too.
So while others have been in decline and in some cases faltering in a difficult market, BOD has quietly been positioning itself to be one of the main players in the Southern African diamond sector in coming years - notwithstanding the obvious likely need for significant investment to get it all running properly of course! - but the quality, quantum and commercial position of the assets already in the bag should smooth those wheels significantly.
But meanwhile let's see what Marsfontein brings us first - a good strike there could fund all of the above on its own. And they are drilling as we speak...
I can sympathise with that Pec!
The speed with which this was done displays the strength and depth of BOD's position and relationships in Botswana, hopefully bodes well for Maibwe and other stuff too.
Re Sekaka, the final sentence says it all IMO: "Kimberlite pipes, like KX36, are rarely if ever found on their own. It is of major importance that we got two adjacent licences where we are now very hopeful to find other kimberlites. The Kalahari Desert is a tough environment but finding something as rare as KX36 containing an estimated indicated resource of 17.9m tons at 35cpht is very rare. The potential far outweighs the challenge".
There’s our answer, Pecten! Rubber stamped with an extra 2 years thrown in. First payment next November.
...and it was expensively and comprehensively built and kitted to be capable of everything from crushing, screening, and scrubbing to dense media separation and x-ray recovery. It would cost millions - probably a multiple of our mcap! - to replicate today in that location.
Pec - have a good look at the postcode of the Sekaka plant. Note its location in close proximity (allowing for expansive African geography!) to some very interesting mines and prospects not just BOD’s. It could prove to be a very useful asset.
Interesting presentation
Also specifically mentions Maibwe now - could it finally be resolved after all this time?
And Zimbabwe - specifically refers to possible grant of concessions in areas besides Vast/Marange - perhaps the link with Vast and Mark Mbhudhu moving to ZCDC as CEO is opening up opportunities for mutual benefit of both BOD and Zimbabwe and its communities. Exciting prospects!
The Twitter photo stream from the TR/Mars drilling has started, being a luddite with tech I have no idea how to paste the posts here, but you all know where to look!
Exciting couple of weeks ahead!
I agree with you CF - it means it's still very much on, important for confidence after the GE shenanigans irrespective of subsequent RNSs I had started to feel somewhat unsure. Onwards and upwards!
Not sure if the 400ct stone was already broken/weakened - maybe - but I was given the inpression that heavy-handed use of explosives to speed up the recovery rate played a part. Investment was repaid in the first 3 days. Maybe they’d borrowed it from Wonga (or Atlas or Bergen!) so were in a hurry to repay!
Hi Pecten - good thanks, you? Re diamond prices it depends which grades, whether rough polished etc but there are various data and graphs going back much further than 10 years, but for the purpose of looking at Marsfontein a reasonable guide would be that between 1999 and 2010 prices roughly doubled, and continued to rise into the 2010s but fell back in the last couple of years. I am sure there are people here better qualified in the sector than me to comment, but I think it's right to say that the value per carat for any given stone would be easily double that achieved at M1 at the time. M1 produced just under 2m cts from just under 1m tonnes of material, and total mine revenue of USD 246m, ie USD 128/carat on average. Revenue might perhaps have been higher if they had mined more carefully, at least one 400+ct was broken into 5 pieces by 'accident'!
It's probably a bit overoptimistic to hope for 'another M1' (we can dream!) but something even a decent fraction of the size could be massively significant for a £5m company - and those hopes further buoyed by JT's comment re 'very high grades'.
TBTT yes, the original M1 mine intersects M8 north-south and covered a very small surface area at the top - only about 0.4ha at the top IIRC. Remember that it produced $250m revenue in 2 years - and that was in 1999/2000 remember - and paid back investment in 3 days flat.
JAHC on Twitter from Friday: 'Wonderful feedback following our recent ground geophysical survey. '
Sound ominous, and promising?!
https://t.co/R97Wd5A7L2
More steps in the right direction and a clear timeline.
Interesting tweet about it from a man who knows what he’s talking about:
https://twitter.com/neilringdahl/status/1315536966121910277?s=21
erm, except that he's gone to the bosom (top, indeed) of the very organisation which decides 'who gets what in diamonds' over there. It could be the key to unlocking the situation.
Apropos nothing in particular I do think your money is safer here than in ICON. Well done though!
Can’t disagree with any of that Cast. I too picked a few more up yesterday and will continue to do so if it stays around these levels, should be an interesting few months.