Member Info for perroverde

Mike - the 40% interest in Vutomi rises to 72% based on certain discovery/development milestones being achieved and payments - can't remember exactly but it's not onerous in the context - ie in the £100ks not millions. The 28% balance will remain with local black economic economic empowerment partners which is politically no bad thing.

TBTT - re Echo's 'loose' shares - get in the queue sunshine! lol

Sounds like we’re all in a similar ball park calcs wise based on what they’re formally telling us and James’s tweets. Just needs formal onfirm, which as Echo says sounds promising.

I'll correct myself on re-reading Cast's presentation - a few big stones were damaged but one particular stone was broken into 5 pieces and would have been 400+ Carat if it had been retrieved in one piece.

Pecten/TBTT don't forget that M1 was over 20 years ago. 1) Prices have moved a fair bit since then and 2) the manner in which they mined the site (to maximise early returns) meant that they damaged several very large stones which would have improved the yield average quite a bit. I believe it's in the presentation which Cast kindly posted.

I'm no expert but I do know enough to know that James didn't post that image for fun!
Echo - I think James is one of the most honest and straight-up CEOs in the market, so seriously doubt that leaks would originate with him. He isn't alone up there however...

Agree - it looks like stars are aligning at last for a decent recovery. They're obviously mining Cullinan for all its worth (and why not especially with prices on the up), so restoration of normal activity at Finsch + Koffefontain will be additionally very beneficial, and perhaps resolution in Tanzania which although small in the context of the other mines will be extremely helpful at the margin cashflow-wise.

TBTT as I understand it (but may need to re-read the facts) BOD has the right to buy Vutomi out (or buy a significant majority) based on certain specific revenue targets. The targets are actually not very onerous relative to the typical value of a decent ‘hit’ - i think something like a couple of hundred £k means BOD gets 70%/72% (i need to check the details again but i don’t think I’m far short of the mark). Peanuts in the context of a big strike. Amd don’t forget the importance of the presence of a BEE compliant shareholder, Thorny/Mars is RSA remember!

There’s been a share issue since the last reported results?

TBTT I think - and sincerely hope - that you’re right!
A pivotal couple of weeks ahead, but based on what they’ve said, what they’re doing, with what they are doing it (gravity - expensive but definitive results either way!) suggests they really do think they are on to something special.

Interesting point Echo. I gather Marsfontein 1 - open cast too - was rather aggressively blasted (cheap and quick!) in the first few days, hence they achieved an incredibly fast repayment of investment of just a couple of days. However in doing so they blew apart a number of very large valuable stones. I guess today’s processes would help avoid that. A nice dilemma to have though! I also agree re preference for buyout, but not with current share price as a basis for negotiations!

Hi TBTT - re warrants I doubt they will be traded anywhere, they are very tightly held among a few shareholders quite a few of whom are Johnno's mates. That said, you might recall that JP Jenkins made a market in Vast warrants for a while (God how I wish I'd sold mine to them now!), but I believe that they stopped after a short while as there was no interest.
Do you want to buy some of mine I'm up to my eyeballs in the things lol

DiggingDeep correct but there’s more than two fronts:
- yes Burgundy and Thorny + the RiverPipe (and yes BCL/Maibwe) but also KX36, ‘other’ Marsfontein eg gravels (not heard re those in a while?), and well, who knows re Zimbabwe.
Nice to see some new blood here too, very welcome.

PS I didn’t mean to sound negative in my final sentence, but when the market is so myopic that it values these assets at only £5m it’s getting beyond a bit daft!

Yes - I am told (by folk who know more about it than I do!) that it’s very special and pretty rare to get that sort of result from that scope and size of drill. On to the next drill, looks very very promising indeed from here!
Whether the market gets that is another matter!

Steve
While I don't necessarily disagree with you (and the other poster's point about the Vat issue is one I hadn't been aware of to be fair), I think there's more in play than those three things, ie reinstatement of production at Williamson (it isn't huge in the context of things but it's important at the margin), a return to more normal pre-Covid levels of production in the other mines, and the impact of the cost-savings (and interest payment reductions) on the bottom line will likely see a rapid return to past 'normal' years profitability - ie earnings in the £hundreds of millions - and this needs to be considered in the context of the market cap currently circa £150m. With all the above plus a fair wind, the remaining debt could be repaid within a couple of years, and today's share price would be a distant memory. It may take a little while but I actually believe you have a sporting chance of getting a meaningful proportion of your money back.

Agree on all counts. I too have been here a few months now. Attracted by the obvious value in the asset. Hard going for a while for those who bought the IPO but those who stood by it will clearly be fine and their original anticipated returns fulfilled.
Sir Mick is clearly no fool and obviously agrees!

Whatamess - re Williamson I gather it is a bit of both - mainly Covid but also an element of problems with the authorities regarding operational issues (and also the impounding of 71000 carats at the airport in December allegedly due to corrupt middlemen, still the subject of dispute). The operational issues appear to be being addressed in a proper manner. At the end of the day, yes, Williamson is important to PDL, but not the end of the World if the other mines are operating normally. Don't forget the State own 25% and the revenue is important to them, so are unlikely to want to stifle the operation any more than is necessary.

Icarus - yes - see the rns from 9th March.
Whatamess - there are various ways to track diamond prices - I think one of the best ways is to keep an eye on mining reviews and the likes of DeBeers, De Coutre and other websites which list actual auctions and provide commentary etc .

This situation needs to be seen in context. As I understand it, debt has approximately halved from 700-odd million to 379m, market value of equity has increased from circa 10m to £127m. Overall enterprise value (net debt + equity) therefore reduced from around 700m to about 500m.
Debt service/repayment is obviously key, and even without Williamson, absent some other unforseen disaster this should now be manageable - and a lot lot more manageable than previously (or the note holders would presumably not have accepted the deal which has effectively been done at 30p in the £ at today's share price). The fortunes of these sorts of companies in this sector ebb and flow at dramatic pace, and a very possible rapid return to 'normalised' production and sales - nudging $500m with a fair wind (and hopefully with Williamson thrown back in) together with the added benefit of diamond prices recovery and the cost saving programe, ebitda levels of previous 'better' years in the hundreds of millions would have this debt repaid in very short order and the current market cap would be a distant memory.