Member Info for Pepepepe73

This is the reason behind the dip

https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2062114332578873818?s=20

From a valuation perspective, Wizz faces the problem that its convertible debt is quite substantial and will result in significant dilution.

Spain

I've the same feeling in my country.

Left is shi-t everywhere.

Fully agree.

markets are very oversold

This stock has a huge beta.

Yeah bad news, more escalation ahead

This war escalation isn't gonna stop in just 1-2 days.

Perhaps we could grab prices around 900p or below.

Likely several tough days ahead

*Scenario C: Severe Macroeconomic Recession*

- Characteristics: Significant economic contraction, rising unemployment, tight mortgage lending criteria, and a sharp drop in transaction volumes and property values.

- Revenue ImpactsDuring a severe downturn, overall market volumes drop significantly as consumers postpone major long-term financial commitments. Persimmon manages this by adjusting its completions to match current demand, focusing heavily on affordable homes and making strategic use of target incentives (such as part-exchange options and stamp duty contributions) to clear remaining inventory and maintain steady cash inflows.

- Margin ImpactsWhile lower transaction volumes reduce overall operating leverage, Persimmon's exceptionally low land acquisition costs provide a vital financial cushion. Because its strategic land was acquired at a deep discount to open-market rates, the company can absorb price reductions or offer buyer incentives while remaining profitable on plots where competitors would be operating at a loss. Additionally, its asset-light balance sheet and strong net cash position mean the company doesn't face the burden of servicing high debt loads during a downturn.

**-- Comprehensive Scenario Analysis Across Macroeconomic Cycles --**

*Scenario A: High-Growth, Expansionary Environment*

- Characteristics: Rising macroeconomic GDP, low unemployment, expanding mortgage availability, and strong wage growth driving house price appreciation (HPA).

- Revenue ImpactsPersimmon capitalizes on strong consumer demand by deploying its highly standardized Core Range designs across its pre-approved land bank. Because the building blueprints are uniform, the company can quickly scale production and open new outlets without design delays, maximizing sales volumes. The company captures the full upside of rising market prices while maintaining volume momentum, driving rapid revenue expansion.

- Margin ImpactsIn a booming market, independent building materials suppliers and subcontractor trades typically implement aggressive price increases. However, because Persimmon sources its bricks, tiles, and timber frames from its own manufacturing plants, it completely insulates a large portion of its cost base from this industry-wide inflation. The company captures the full benefits of higher sales prices without suffering from corresponding material cost inflation, leading to significant operating margin expansion.

*Scenario B: Stagnant, Stagflationary Environment*

- Characteristics: High systemic inflation (including energy and raw materials), rising interest rates, contracting real household incomes, and flat or falling house prices.

- Revenue ImpactsHigher mortgage rates inevitably reduce consumer purchasing power, causing a contraction in overall industry sales volumes. However, Persimmon’s focus on the affordable, lower-ASP segment provides an effective buffer. Buyers who are priced out of mid-to-high market family homes scale back their budgets and look for more affordable options, migrating directly into Persimmon's starter-home category. This demand shift helps support the company's baseline sales volumes.

- Margin ImpactsThis is where the upstream vertical integration model proves most valuable. While competitors see their margins squeezed by rising material costs from external suppliers, Persimmon's Brickworks, Tileworks, and Space4 facilities absorb the supply chain pressures and continue delivering components at cost. At the same time, the company's low-cost strategic land bank ensures it isn't burdened with expensive land acquired at peak market prices, keeping the overall cost base predictable and resilient

New in this forum a very keen on Persimmon.

Longtime watching / waiting from the sidelines and it's increasingly more interesting from and investing point of view. It's really cheap no matter what KPI you analize.

Just need Trump stops his embarrasing war and UK Goverment launch some kind of new policy focused on helping new buyers to get his home.

I like the setup here, both stock price and potential polices around UK HBs