RE: US Bank Problems May Be Ongoing19 Mar 2023 05:53
The point is, not by me, it's from what I've read.
If the Fed and any other Central Bank. like the Bank of England (BOE), slow down the necessary interest rate rises to reduce inflation, then inflation remains high, lasts longer and leads to recession.
If, however, they push through the necessary interest rate rises to reduce inflation, then this means, for example, more retail banks could fail which brings financial instability.
Another problem arises , for example, for UK pension funds, which are mainly in bonds, they may have to sell their bonds at a loss for regulatory or some other purpose.
There could be more fallout, than we can possibly imagine.
From 2008 onwards Central Banks had to lower interest rates considerably and to use quantitative easing, etc., to combat the global financial crisis. If they hadn't done this, then there would have been a global financial meltdown in 2008.
The problem we have now is that Central Banks are no longer in a high interest rate environment as in 2008. Interest rates are low and so Central Banks, have little leeway with the present low interest rates.
So, if any Central Bank reduces their interest rates, for example, to save their retail banks from failing or to save their pension funds from having to sell their bonds at a loss, then their inflation will remain high, last longer and lead to recession.
The Central Banks like the Fed and the BOE's job is financial stability. It's a difficult balancing act to get right for any Central Bank.
What is happening now is still as a result of the 2008 global financial crisis. It is not the fault of the FED, BOE or any other Central Bank. It is the fault of the retail banks back in 2008 who invested their money badly and had to be rescued to prevent a global financial meltdown. We're all still paying for the mistakes of the retail banks back from 2008.
Retail Banks are the likes of Barclays, Credit Suisse, etc., whereas the Central Banks are the Banks which set interest rates like the USA Fed, UK BOE, EU Central Bank, etc.,
I hope that helps your understanding of what I'm trying to put across.
I couldn't sleep, got up early and ended up on here.
Yes, I know, madness is in the air or maybe even spring with any luck.