Adrian Hargrave, CEO of SEEEN, explains how the new funds will accelerate customer growth Watch the video here.
Looks like desperation when Adrian calls you up to help out with his version of filibustering.
But it just shows ignorance when you post this ramping rubbish, did you get it off Adrian?:-
'If the 3d seismic is done over horeshill, the drill that follows will surely hit the sweet spot and be a much better producer than hh1 ever was'
Good try but to start with there's the possibility the seismic removes the updip closure that HH-3 is targeting - it looks like that's exactly what happened at Basur with the target for Basur-4 - and like Basur-4 the HH-3 target area contouring is in the gap between seismic lines. The target is a lot nearer the bounding fault than HH-1 and at BB UKOG wanted the sidetrack to be nearer faulting as they expected fracturing to increase, does that equal more possible water conduits.
...and there's no chance of identifying minor fracturing likely to be water conduits.
The sweet spot in the Portland at HH, as described before HH-2z was drilled, is a zone with two thin layers with better porosity and permeability seperated by a shale - and the zone that UKOG described as producing the lions share of oil in the HH-1 ewt. The HH-2z well was steered within this interval - I suppose any vertical or 'slope' well will intersect it, but they won't be trying a 'horizontal' within it after HH-2z.
and Turkey - of course news not results.......as always the news of something about to happen not the outcome.
As for Adrian's Finch challenging since 2019 - that's 4 years of UKOG not claiming they weren't drilling or repurposing HH-2z (for 3 years) because of the legal challenge - but watching as water cut increased and oil decreased with seemingly no desire to better explain to pi what was going on with production - with a workover that included reperforation to improve production that made things worse in Oct 2020.
UKOG ran off to Turkey when they realised the game was about to be up when the OGA published the first month with significant water production. They had already revealed at the end of June that HH-2z was a dud and shut in for a 'long term pbu' (40 months ago) - but kept hopes that it could still be 'stimulated' or side tracked - though strangely a pump used for injection was spotted on site earlier in the year.
Their 'mates' Xodus, of 720 to 1080bopd fame, had a dodgy farm out - were UKOG so desperate to distract from the HH bad news that they grabbed it without proper scrutiny, or didn't they care?
UKOG probably hoped that it wouldn't be possible to find out how deluded their claims were about transformational recoverable oil with unjustified comparisons to the Kurdistan fields when next door was a field (E Sadak) with wells that appeared to decline even faster than HH-1 (from monthly production totals in scout reports) and were difficult to place even on a field already drilled multiple times.
The sham was exposed here when a poster discovered that the scout reports for Turkey weren't being stored securely - and then they drilled Basur-3 which managed - like some E Sadak wells - to completely miss any accumulation. It's only been downhill since then with remapping Basur apparently removing any drillable closure and deciding the Resan part of the structure was too risky - with the Pinarova fiasco only compounding the disasterous entry into Turkey.
For ages I've posted that UKOG should concentrate on Horse Hill where they've actually found some oil that will come out of the ground but without the hype that it would be anything other than a small scale operation. Even that would be far better than Turkey with oil smells and an amplitude anomaly that UKOG failed (deliberately?) to check out with AVA / AVO. As for Basur - Resan either UKOG failed to properly question AME about E Sadak or misrepresented what they knew.
The question is how risky is drilling another Portland production well at HH that UKOG are prepared to farm out 49% of all future production, except that from HH-1, in a 2 for 1 deal costing £4.6mm - with 7% being given for the estimated initial £350,000 for the 3D (cost according to PPP).
As for a Supreme Court win not being priced in I suggest you look at the muted price action around the Loxley decision which was also expected to be a win. Anybody buying after the RNS on the attempted 'pump' and holding will be seeing a 50% loss. Sellers on the pump who bought below about 0.061 could have made modest gains.
Ocelot,
'Hopefully, a successful conclusion to Finch v Surrey CC will help to clarify matters quickly.'
I suppose just like the Loxley decision? I wonder who posted this in August - 'The most likely near-term triggers for volatility are: 1/ Pinarova-1; and 2/ Loxley.'
As for Angus and Balcombe they're probably looking for any excuse to not do anything.
Hoping4,
Don't hold your breath for the development that was envisaged in 2018. The CPR which only assessed the Portland, was based on very little data and a very different map to the post HH-2z mapping - for example Collendean Farm is now mapped in the same fault block as HH-1 and HH-2z was expected to be shallower than HH-1 was deeper. UKOG haven't presented new volumatrics or any forecasts despite having decided, based on a decline curve and any anticipated savings (water injection?) that production from HH-1 had a NPV(3.86) of £0.8mm.
But that development won't be happening, only DoD ( and DL, Adrian and a few posters here) are pretending it will to garner local support from nimbys - and DoD is probably where the Guardian got it from. UKOG ran off to Turkey when HH started looking dodgy.
and if you think I'm being negative it's probably because you're being too positive.
......and.
'Planning consent remains in force and lawful production continues at the Horse Hill site in which the Company holds an 85.635% interest.'
What's against the company's shareholders is not progressing even the HH-2z conversion, but then they even managed to spin out getting permission from the EA to do that ro years by not getting on ŵith obtaining g permission and then slowly performing the work to get sign off for injection. In June still waiting for it, not the Supreme Court decision.
Another Adrian parody account posting on PPP and UKOG........desperate.
So this was BS in the March RNS.
'Planning and environmental consents remain in place for a further 4 production wells at Horse Hill.
3D seismic acquisition is currently targeted for H2 2023'
No words of caution about ongoing legal challenges possibly preventing progress.
As for the PPP farm in we know it wasn't agreed by at least one of the minority shareholders in HHDL, perhaps because the low cost of entry for 49% of a field indicated that even an appraisal well was risky at Horse Hill - though that's pretty obvious following the result of HH-2z and the near catastrophic decline of oil production in HH-1 whilst Adrian on twitter was pretending production was improving because he saw a few tankers in December 2021 / January 2022.
Horse Hill is not old. HH-1 has been on production for just over 3 1/2 years but within 18 months production it had dropped to about 60bopd, 20% of the 300bopd UKOG claimed for March 2020. That's not decline - it's a collapse.
So PPP's farm in is initially to shoot 3D that they were going to do in H2 this year - no mention of not doing it because of the Supreme Court case before PPP was suspended and the HHDL minority partner/s wouldn't agree it.
But there's a good chance the culmination target of HH-3 might disappear with the 3D coverage as it's in a gap between the 2D seismic lines - just like Basur-4 which after the phase 2 seismic is no longer mentioned.
And in this sentence 'if the second tranche of equity shares were converted at a vwap of about 0.08p would mean they are now issuing 2,424,487,652 shares for only a bit more than £1million.'
the vwap should be 'about 0.028p' as I posted earlier not 0.08p.
Having another look at what the £3million funding RNS said trying to understand what's changed (and possibly why) since the June RNS - noticed a mistake in my last post - the warrants are issued at 140% of the converted price so for 0.03p that would be 0.042p.
So...... the June RNS has the £3million as the first tranche - and mentions the 1.3billion shares as 'equity shares', but no mention of a second tranche of equity shares.
It appears as if UKOG expected the 1.3 billion shares issued to cover up to just over half the value of the £2 million loaned - 'which represent between approximately 37% and 51% of the value of the First Tranche' - but that's a different first tranche in the June RNS '£2 million receivable no later than 2 days after completion ("First Tranche")' from the first tranche in this RNS - 'The Loan's first tranche of 1,300,000,000 [shares] has been converted by the Investors at an average price of 0.0504 pence per share'. That as I posted earlier should equal a repayment of £655,000 - but UKOG said about the £2 million loan 'the balance of which now stands at approximately £1.4 million'.
So it looks like they've invented a second tranche of 'equity shares' (1,424,487,652) to enable the equity shares to cover just over 50% of the loan - at 0.028p that would be (as I posted earlier coveniently about £400,000 - meaning the 2 tranches would be a bit over £1million plus 4.5%
As for warrants the June RNS mentions - 'In respect of the First Tranche the Investors will be granted 1,125,895,598 warrants' - which should represent 33% of the number of shares expected to be issued to pay off the £2mm which would mean they expected to issue 3,411,804,842 shares in total - if the second tranche of equity shares were converted at a vwap of about 0.08p would mean they are now issuing 2,424,487,652 shares for only a bit more than £1million.
Looks like they did all their calculations based on a SP of about 0.06p - they must have been reading this board and expected 0.06p to be the bottom!
There's going to be a lot of shares sloshing about to suppress any rise if they convert the 1.4 billion shares at about 0.028p.
Evening Adrian,
I've been expecting you from PPP. after 5pm............does that mean, as it says, it will be 4 weeks after the guns are on site? - to test an interval that was ignored, with worse indications than the section of the Hoya that had the failed swab test, until the amplitude anomaly was drilled and had nothing in it.
Speak the truth - hilarious.
Not to forget these 2 as mentioned by SRBS - '£0.5 million receivable by no later than November 17th 2023, and £0.5 million receivable no later than February 16th 2024'
Firstly 0.0504p x 1.3billion is £655,000 not about £600,000
Not sure investors were told the whole truth of the deal at the time, and the deals wording is quite opaque. This for example:-
'As part of the package the Company will issue to the Investors ordinary shares ("Equity Shares"), which represent between approximately 37% and 51% of the value of the First Tranche, or 1.3 billion new ordinary shares'
In fact the 1.3 billion shares ended up being only 32.7% (even though the value is more than they say) - but a lot less than the wide range quoted.
Then there's warrants which will represent 33% of the shares they issue priced at 135% of the converted price (for example 0.0405p for a vwap of 0.03p).
and not forgetting the 4.5% of the value converted added to the loan - which is in effect a discount to the vwap.
So there's 1.3 billion shares at 0.0504p per share and unless they are bonkers they will convert the second tranche at a the variable price ie the 15 day vwap which is probably about 0.028p.
That will pay off another £400,000 and the first tranche paid off about £600,000.
Conveniently that leaves £1,000,000 to convert to shares at whatever 15 day vwap is available to them.
Let's hope it's above 0.03p or another 3.333 billion shares.
Baxtobax,
But the well originally produced 55,000bbls of oil in 2 years - ending up at a rate of 15-20 bopd according to PPP when it was shut in by the operator in July 2022.
So expecting it to produce 182,000bbls of oil in one year (500x7x52) perhaps illustrates how unlikely the well which PPP was given for very little by the operator will sustain a rate anything like that. Initial rates for a well shut in for about 15 months might be OK but drop off extremely rapidly depending on the recharge mechanism.
Whether there will be updates on flow rates over the next weeks / months will be interesting.
Ocelot,
Much will be made of the expected by everyone verdict from the Supreme Court that the planning permission is valid.
As ocelot would say about bad news RNS (not that there are as many as there should be) surely this good news is already in the SP - the Loxley High Court decision didn't 'bag'.
But UKOG hasn't ever suggested delays (or complete non activity) at HH are because of the court case. The issue appears to be snails progress getting permissions and (or perhaps because of) the reservoirs not being up to much except under tests that comprise bursts of production following shut in periods and UKOG releasing a variety of carefully selected flow rates. The overwhelming water ingress in HH-2z and the rapid onset of water in production from HH-1 is another problem.
A positive court decision won't change the geology.
Although DL claimed PPP weren't farming in until the court decision PPP couldn't anyway because the minority shareholders in HHDL wouldn't agree the farm in, and would HHDL/UKOG enter into an agreement with a suspended AIM company?
Of course ocelot won't read this (or is it pretend not reading). Not surprising that the ostriches with their green box boasts are the ones that keep on wondering why the SP has relentlessly fallen with all those great RNS and tweets being issued that they so like copying and pasting, with only the occasional pumps followed by dumps to entertain the herds of traders - less often and less exciting in recent years.
They must wonder what other investors don't see that they see.
Trish,
It was Friday 13 October. not quite 3 weeks ago - and what was said re the 4 weeks was:-
'is expected in around 4 weeks once the guns are on site.'
Now forgive me for being a little cynical but experience of dodgy wording in a UKOG RNS makes me wonder if it is 4 weeks from 13 October, or 4 weeks once the guns are on site - which is what it says.
That does sound a long time, but maybe getting everything ready to do the test like ordering the armoured crane, test equipment and other items needed for setting of those big guns a few hundred metres down the hole (and 'Red' Adair to be on standby for the blowout) will take a while?
Otherwise in terms of the success of the test ('Red' Adair was a joke) - rather than news of it happening expect any pump to have been dumped by the wise before the test results are RNS'd - just like the swab test results on 25 April.
Perhaps an indication of how important the oil smell and the oil returning to surface when the casing was set was is that they didn't mention the oil was associated with the Germik (the formation they're planning to test) until after they tested the 'upper' Hoya (they tweeted the returned oil when they announced the swab test, but not where it came from) where they had 'proper shows'(failure) and drilled through and beyond the Hoya amplitude anomaly without comment as to what was seen, though as they are now considering looking for a deeper accumulation to feed the shothole oil instead it does sort of confirm there was nothing there.
But don't worry everyone will be super excited that they might shoot more seismic to look for that deeper accumulation. Perhaps there will be news of the PPP farm in, Loxley farm out or HH-2z converson to distract.
Adrian,
BYW this is the UKOG board.
Why didn't they use the $20 million facility and instead separately raised £1.8mm in 2 hits earlier this year - and to do this they had to 'borrow' about 60 million shares off existing shareholders. They'll need to issue those 60 million shares at some point that won't generate any extra cash but will be 60% more shares in issue.
So what am I hiding, that PPP will need to raise to shoot the 3D, let alone drill an appraisal well that HHDL don't seem keen to drill?
First sentence my post 8:55 this morning:-
'Expect a P&D and then a raise by PPP to pay for the HH 3D'
As for the other wells I also asked what happened to the Whistling Straits well - last sentence same post:-
'But what's happened to the Whistling Straits 5 well?'
Adrian,
Did you read the PPP Annual Report, probably not - too many words
Like your ridiculous posting with revenues, not net income, on the UKOG board you ignore that oil companies, even AIM ones, cost money to run, as do well sites, exploration programmes and myriad other expenditures.
This from the Annual Report:-
'The Group expects to generate modest positive net cash flow when oil production regularly exceeds 50 barrels of oil per day.'
Adrian,
Did you read the Annual Report, probably not - too many words
Like your ridiculous posting with revenues, not net income, on the UKOG board you ignore that oil companies, even AIM ones, cost money to run, as do well sites, exploration programmes and myriad other expenditures.
This from the Annual Report:-
'The Group expects to generate modest positive net cash flow when oil production regularly exceeds 50 barrels of oil per day.'
Expect a P&D and then a raise by PPP to pay for the HH 3D assuming that the farm in is agreed. Estimated cost by PPP in the Annual Report £350,000.
The HH-1 ewt certainly illustrated that initial rates could be misleading as far as permanent production is concerned. For the PPP CTH#1 well production stopped in July 2022 at 15 to 20bopd - it produced 55,000bbls of oil during 2years of production giving an average of about 75bopd meaning if it did start at about 400bopd production dropped off much faster than HH-1. Depending on the recharge mechanism will decline be much faster in this second go at production?
But what's happened to the Whistling Straits 5 well?
Not worth wasting too much time replying to someone who will be gone - so here's a reply from a couple of weeks ago when the SP was 0.345 and you were rejoicing your buy at 0.0329p but trying to encourage others to buy so you could sell, of course your posts are consigned to the ether:-
'It's hilarious you trying to mock someone about a non-existant short that would have been by far the most sensible thing to have done until two weeks ago - and may still be worth holding onto - after all there was a poster who was convinced that 0.06p was the floor when the SP steadied at that for a while, though anyone shorting (a CFD?) has had plenty of time to cash in while the SP has steadied over the past 2 weeks after two months of ever lower 52 week lows.
We'll see if a win in the Supreme Court will see the SP 'bag', the Loxley win was muted.
But are you living in the past - TW, shorts - next up BDI will be back and £1 party - sorry for those that held in 2017 because they believed the BS'
I see now you've added to your delusional claims about other posters. You seem to suck up to all the rich boys, Trump, Farage, Ticehurst that have 'fooled' so many of the poor that the millionaires and billionaires that own newspapers and TV channels that they aren't the enemy.
Truly the self styled fool on the hill, in your case we should add DL who's now coming for your cash not your hate.
BTW - You never did explain where and how the sort of pi posting on this board could borrow shares to short UKOG. I expect you still have no idea because it isn't possible.
So sweet to see a man child posting nonsense with all those pretty emojis.
But I wonder if PPP hasn't returned to trading because the Nomad isn't happy with the accounts - who knows, maybe they're struggling with the Whistling well and hoping something will turn up, though they must have been trying for weeks, wasn't anything in last Friday's RNS. Maybe that's why they're hoping the Supreme Court decision might emerge but it could still be weeks - it's a bit desperate when the farm in hasn't been agreed. At least, unlike UKOG, being suspended means the SP can't drop untl trading starts again.
As for 'I don't see you complaining about none stop deramping post from Stevesand and HmmNice whys that then. As if we didn't know ya hypoctit'
With you here so frequently doing it I didn't need to - stop crying that I didn't bother.