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Brent up 10% PMO down 7% ???
Things were lining up nicely after all the patience of the LTH but now the debt reduction will take a delay with covid19 and now an oil price war. Hedges for H1 thankfully, hoping covid19 will be on the wain by then and oil demand back up. Several countries already appear to be past the worst Singapore, China, South Korea so some light at the end of the tunnel?
SA have to get the message across that they can do this at any time in an effort to discourage shale producers from ramping up when oil is allowed to come back up - SA need this to.
Brent is same price as at the close - we are at rock bottom (hopefully) but can’t see any news to take us back up. SA and Russia need everyone to accept what they can do to the oil price before they’ll change course.
Did anyone have a stoploss triggered first thing and sell at near 10p? Just wondering if this actually happens, it sounds logical, if underhand to say the least.
Exactly, at such a low price they can close their short and make money on the debt side plus equity on the way back. Keeping the short just increases the downward pressure for little gain and possible loss.
Long term at below $40? No, but shale is in a far worse position and it seems SA want to reduce their influence. If it’s just opec holding up the price their cuts get deeper as others try to supply the market - they can’t do it on their own so Russia’s refusal to help was the trigger for a total about face re strategy. I’ve seen figures for PMO from 35 down to 15$(production costs) so we’re not badly placed (any comfort?), if you are long not sure what options are apart from LTH and expecting this dip to be a short sharp shock rather than a new pricing era.
So this Saudi shakedown will hammer any long futures/options holders - even some big companies will be at risk today, glad l’m only invested at the coal face and not leveraged. How’s Deutsche bank looking these days? and any knock on effects from that.
The 20% jump when the SA oil refinery was hit was short lived - hoping it applies to sudden dips too!
Clocks in the us have already gone forward so WTI started trading 10pm U.K. time, till we put our clocks forward too.
Crashing oil is one hell of a tantrum from MBS, who backed opec cuts to support the price. Can only hope such a steep decline designed to jolt everyone will be short(ish) lived.
Not sure what Saudi are aiming for - unless it’s to apply pressure on Russia to cut production. Having a competition on who can survive at the lowest price is not something we need? Might shake down WTI but we’ve got enough excitement as it is thank you!
At close today Brent was over 51, now nearing 50 - a red start tomorrow but hopefully opec+ could turn it blue
What was the comment on free cash flow? I noticed in the results there was no target range for FCF, just said it would exist.
With covid19 hanging over the world economy it’s always going to be a rocky ride.
2 billion dollars not pounds BDNO - instant 25-30% reduction!
Whitebox did increase their short yesterday, so not everyone sees an increase in SP.
If the debt restructuring gets the go ahead on the 6th and the 17th you would think the upward pressure would force ARCM to close - hedgies do have amazing ability to wait till the very last moment however.
On a different note WTI opened down 2% and hasn’t recovered much ground so not much joy for tomorrow morning. We need the covid19 numbers to turn towards fewer infections and more recoveries. Will take a couple of weeks at least if that is what’s happening.
So with Warren we get a big boost in oil and America’s first Native American president ;-)
Her other policies do make her unelectable however, mirroring Labour in the last GE.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61 Gives some interesting charts. Looks promising to me but I’m long! Diagnosed flattening out with recovered catching up. Also Wuhei has x70 more diagnosed than anywhere else so it is the epicentre in an authoritarian country which is putting the place on lockdown (if a little late to start with)