Member Info for Pelle

There is post in Swedish Di with referense to wall street journal.
USA talking about diplomatic pressure on SA and sanctions on Russia

Ian H Lundin
@Ian_H_Lundin
·
1h
Do the Saudis really have a plan? They need $80 a barrel to balance the budget and more importantly $50 a barrel to break even on the balance of payments. Perhaps the plan is to head strait off the cliff and drag the (shale oil) industry with them.

Romaron, yeah I am bit out of words today.
Atleast spring come early and my forest will start grow more so there will be more buttcoins.
Worried about world, will be so many without work after this if they dont kickstart business soon

Romaron, buy more? I thought you already filled garage with buttcoins!

1000 usd and lets go to beach

https://twitter.com/Ian_H_Lundin

World will need to stabilize oil at some higher fair price and agree some cuts now in world.
Otherwise there wont be enough production at fair price left in 6-18 months to help with global recovery.
If oil would go to 100-200 usd next year it would make world economic recovery more difficult.

Smilla at Swedish forum said around 200 mill.
We will see.

Squif

I think I also have around 40 breakeven.
But the Bonds interest rate will be capaitilised 70 mill per / year so that gives another couple of usd lower to dig in without using cash on hand.
And they should be able cut 30-40 mill on capex also.

So I would say 35 usd but debt will then increase with 70 mill/year

Good morning,
Let’s assume stable US production and consumption.
Consumption might actually be that due to driving season and more travel by car then airplane theory.

If US is small 1 mill day net exporter.
( don’t understand how they can consume 20 mill/day and produce 13 mill/day and be exporter .)

If they now want to fill SPR with 100 mill more they will need ban export 1 mill/day over next 100 days.
To get the right mix of oil I think they need to increase import.

The longer prices stays down below 50 the bigger the oil price shock will be.
100-200 usd in 2021?

If there now is a big plan from Saudi Russia with this, I think couple of months at these levels will be more then enough to seriously hurt hurt global oil industry.

I read an other article from more hightech investor.
Think “ what is must have” not “what is nice to have”

Oil certainly is a “ must have “ and for Saudi Russia give it away with a loss for longtime is unlikely.

Ok, in a hurry for badminton now,
Life goes on still!

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/10/are-america-s-days-as-a-net-oil-exporter-numbered

Is it Neil moving capital from PMG to ENQ?

Part 2

Russia came to Vienna and Opec + last week and would like to agree to an extension of the existing supply cuts that expire on April 1 for another three months, and then make decisions based on a stronger basis on the consequences of the corona virus on the market.

The attitude also reflects how the two countries' financial fundamentals differ, says Chris Weafer, who believes that Russia's economy has gone past Saudi Arabia and is now stronger, unlike the situation when Opec + was formed after the recent price crash of 2014.

Russia, in short, is not as dependent on a high oil price as Saudi Arabia today, and moreover, it seems more than happy that the shale oil industry is knocked out after years of US sanctions on Russian energy companies, the analyst says.

"Of course, Saudi Arabia will not fall flat and say 'hop, we made a little mistake' /… / But the political ties between Saudi Arabia and Russia are too important for both parties, this cannot be stopped by cutting those ties" , says Chris Weafer.

It will be a while before we see a solution, he says. But the fact that the US shale oil industry has grown so mercilessly quickly has worried both Riyadh and Moscow, which further complicates the matter.

"You will probably wait a few weeks and see to it that the drastic fall in prices affects the very worst high-cost producers before a new dialogue between Putin and the Crown Prince (Saudi Arabia's administrative leader is called up) begins to work up," Chris Weafer summed up his view.

Joakim Rönning +46 8 5191 7930

News Agency Direct

OIL
CAN'T STAY HERE, THE SAUDIES WILL ACT - ANALYSIS (Direct)
2020-03-12 08:43
STOCKHOLM (News Agency Direct) Those who suffer most from the price crash that was the result of last week's flop at the Opec + meeting are Saudi Arabia's ally. Therefore, Saudi Arabia will have to act, according to statements by Macro-Advisory analyst Chris Weafer for CNBC.

Those who claim there is a conspiracy behind the price war that broke out this weekend, when Saudi Arabia responded with the same coin to Russia after Energy Minister Alexander Novak refused to agree to new direct-supply cuts, Chris Weafer is wrong. The United States cannot allow Saudi Arabia to let the price war destroy the US shale oil industry, he says.

"Even here at $ 30 a barrel something will happen, Saudi Arabia has to act in the end, they also need a higher price themselves," he says.

Saudi Arabia's crane opening caused the price to collapse by just over 30 percent when trading opened on Monday, which is levels that threaten the entire US shale oil industry, which has made the US a net exporter despite comparatively high extraction costs. But it was simply a mistake from Saudi Arabia that was behind the price crash, the analyst says.

"It really looks like a slant," says Chris Weafer.

OIL
CARL ICAHN INCREASED TO NEAR 10% IN OCCIDENTAL - WSJ (Direct)
2020-03-12 09:32
STOCKHOLM (News Agency Direct) The billionaire and owner activist Carl Icahn has increased his ownership interest in Occidental Petroleum to almost 10 percent.

He states that for the Wall Street Journal.

For almost a year, Carl Icahn has loudly criticized Occidental's acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum for $ 38 billion and instead campaigned for Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub to be ejected. In connection with the acquisition, Occidental bid on rival Chevron with the help of $ 10 billion in expensive funding from another investor, Warren Buffett.

From having had a market value of more than $ 46 billion before the deal, Occidental's value has shrunk to less than $ 11 billion. Contributing causes are doubts about the strategy behind the acquisition and, more recently, the oil price collapse.

"One thing I've learned in life is to not let people handle your business if they are confused enough to believe they can bid on Chevron and be smarter than Buffett," Carl Icahn told the magazine.

Squif
I agree SP was on ceiling at 65 oil, but SP now is not prices at 35 oil forever because then we will never be able pay down debt and make a profit for shareholders.
SP bottom ceiling is more like derivat / option for a better tomorrow.

Marketcap is down around 300 mill but EV is only down from 2b to 1,7b

Somehow someone needs to get prices back to 45-50 atleast or this will get very painfull for all world.

Its the message to swedish AGM's with more then 500 people ban.
Go digital AGM

Dont know Romaron's take on that

Hitman, think your right about Davos but my conclusion is by paying down debt witch they done

Hi Romaron

I dont have exact numbers of % hedge over time last 2 years.
But my impression is they hedge less when oil price and cashflow looked good.
I would like them to hedge more to safely pocket that outlook.

We will see where corona ends, more and more countries (Poland,Ukraine) shutting down schools and kinderkarden and ask people work from home.
Sweden now have had the (30k people) eurovision contribution final last weekend so now we can put restriction on 500 max people events.
Airports worldwide getting empty, but its better do this hard and stop spreading.
The faster life can return to normal.

I hope Russia/Saudi make some deal within 1-2 months.
Thats would already done some serious damage to US shale that was already on the tipping point before.

If I come to AGM, it means I am happy with SP. So I will buy you two drinks!

Romaron

If AB and JS present a 5-10 mill barrles hedge at 65 oil from q2 forward I will come and say thanks at AGM.
Otherwise I get 2018 autumn flashbacks

Squif
There was some post 10:40 and 10:58 on swedish forum

https://www.avanza.se/placera/forum/forum/enquest.html#7088859

Marathon cutting 30% 500 mill

Marathon Oil har dragit ned på borraktiviteten och kapat kapitalinvesteringarna med minst 30 procent, jämfört med 2019. Åtgärderna är ett resultat på oljepriskriget som fick oljan att rasa mer än 30 procent på måndagen. Det var den största nedgången för en dag sedan Kuwaitkriget 1991.

Marathon Oils kapitalinvesteringar kommer nu att vara på 1,9 miljarder dollar under 2020. Det är 500 miljoner dollar mindre än vad som var fallet förra året.

Enlig vd Lee Tillman ska de ”snabba” åtgärderna försvara bolagets kassaflöde, skydda balansräkningen och finansiera utdelningen.

På måndagen valde även skifferproducenterna Diamondback Energy och Parsley Energy att minska sina borraktiviteter för att klara av ett positivt kassaflöde.