Member Info for Pelle

Maybe any Swede can post text about this.
I think this US / Opec alliance could happen.
Russia anyway never helped opec much and don’t have much upside in production.

https://www.di.se/analys/ohelig-oljeallians-hagrar-i-coronaorons-skugga/

https://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?a=files.serve&File_id=36C4A67D-7C57-49B2-BEF2-4EB95E441B99

Hello Squif
March I get basically +-0 FCF
Q2 assuming 20 oil I get minus 87 mill FCF
Q3-Q4 20 oil with further reduced opex/capex minus 70 mill FCF

Bonds will capatilizes so it so thats approx 70 mill less effect on cash on hand per year.

Its really unlucky timing that before last two oil prices crashes they have taken out the smallest hedges.
Atleast they could have got it it right 1 time.

I still think US/OPEC+ and maybe some others in Q2.
Or something else unexpected to happen
And hopefully corona situation easy of in Europe in 1-2 months

Good Squif
Can you please look into your understanding of the 268 mill cash on hand. Think some parts associated with OZ and Magnus shared interest.
I go play badminton now but will check later also and stress test you stress test

https://knoema.com/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-2020-2021-and-long-term-to-2030

Good morning to you too Mavrick

OPEC
Russia opens new oil agreement, wants to include more countries in Opec + (Finwire)
2020-03-27 11:01
Russia opens a new major Opec agreement in which more countries are participating in order to balance the oil price. Kiril Dmitriev, head of the country's state wealth fund, told Reuters news agency during a telephone interview.

What the new countries under the agreement would be Dmitriev did not want to state. US President Donald Trump has previously said he plans to get involved in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia at a later date.

According to Dmitriev, there is continued contact with Saudi Arabia and many other countries. And what he can read is that many are ready to help stabilize the oil market. Dmitriev and Energy Minister Alexander Novak have been Russia's negotiator with Opec.

Earlier this month, oil negotiations collapsed on disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia over prolonged and extended production cuts. Instead, the countries chose to start pumping more oil to gain / retain market shares. The result was that the oil price was halved, which further diluted the concern for the global economy, which is already adversely affected by the corona virus.

Tass reports on Friday that the Russian Ministry of Energy believes that $ 45-55 per barrel is a fair price for the oil at present.

Reno Santic Finwire
News Agency
https://twitter.com/finwire

Squif, please read back to Feb UO to understand the detail in hedge.

Thanks GKB,
I had very nice dreams, this Putin is really a good, honest and reliable man who put his people first.
I heard on news they rush build new hospital for 500 people outside Moscow in case corona gets worse.
His cure for Russia might be easy, higher oil price.
But can he do the technical impossible and reduce oil production?

Romaron, you might be on to something here. This news was out before midnight here also.
He went missing 13 years ago and they don’t know when he died but it was before corona.

https://live.aftonbladet.se/supernytt/news/5e7bdad4722f0e0011cd92e0

Can you please find an article with 60+?
I will sleep better:-)

https://mobile.twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1242806683572801536?s=19

SAUDI CROWN PRINCE DISCUSSES IN PHONE CALL WITH POMPEO EFFORTS TO MAINTAIN STABILITY OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS - STATE NEWS AGENCY SPA
#OOTT

Posted on Swedish forum

Ian H Lundin
@Ian_H_Lundin
·
12h
Not sure if it’s the biggest crisis the industry has faced (in the last 100 years) but it’s certainly time for producers to stop bickering and to start acting like adults in order to meet the challenges that the Corona virus has created.

https://twitter.com/Ian_H_Lundin

I think his job cutting grass at PMG farm will do him good, some social distance

What happen with Neil?

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1241043933632831488/photo/1

Hello Hitman
As 38 usd breakeven is full year and you had a possitive FCF in Jan/Feb you can go below 38 rest of the year and still be neutral.
My Model have 55 usd Q1 and 30 usd rest of the year realised oil price. Average 36,25
Capex they already said before last update weighted to H1 and even more now.
H1 I have 135 mill and H2 15 mill.

Yes, they need to solve it US/SA/Russia. Enq already done their 10% cut.
If US stops drilling completely , how fast will production fall each month?

I updated my excel sheet, I had estimate debt 1372 in end Feb and result was 1367 so close enough.
Production 61,3K average with loweest in summer month and around 60k autumn/winter.
Cost reductions opex/capex gradualy from April.
Assuming we get 30 usd /barrel from April we basically go flat FCF 2020.
March-June negative FCF 50 mill
And after that basically flat FCF H2 at 30 usd

Just sad they didnt hedge 50% 6 months as its been standard last years except now and autumn 2018.
These two misses have been very costly!

10% is for you too GKB!
I found some peace, dividend I hope

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/wsj-us-considers-intervention-and-saudi-russia-standoff-20200319